One of the biggest mistakes a novice who decides to partake in our peculiar, all-consuming hobby/obsession/reason for existence...pick any that apply...can make is assuming that good NFL teams will produce good fantasy players. In reality, the opposite often applies...
Another potential minefield that the newbie needs to dodge is basing his projections for his upcoming draft solely on previous statistics. The personnel on NFL teams tends to change radically from year to year and greatly influences the fantasy values of players.
Last week, I highlighted some teams that have some fantasy gems hidden amongst the rubble of generally bad teams. Now, I will show you some teams that shine like diamonds to the untrained eye when they are really just “fantasy cubic zirconium”.
New York Giants
The 2008 Super Bowl champs are a perfect example of a very good NFL franchise where the individual parts, not necessarily valuable when taken on their own merits, combine to form a potent offensive force. Big Blue finished as the seventh ranked offense last year and yet did not have single representative in the Top Ten in the fantasy Rushing, Passing or Receiving columns.
Eli Manning is what he is: A good NFL quarterback who gets a ton of press coverage because of his more famous older brother. He is not exceptional in a fantasy sense and probably never will be. He had only one game last season where he threw for more than 300 yards and has only done so on seven occasions over his five year career. His 60.3 completion percentage was 19th in the league last year. His 86.4 QB rating was worse than such luminaries as Seneca Wallace and Shaun Hill. The odds of him improving these numbers this season with a very young receiving corps (provided New York doesn’t trade for a heavy hitter like Braylon Edwards) seem long indeed.
The running game, comprised of the “Earth, Wind and Fire” trio (Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw) was, of course, excellent and led the league in yardage gained (2,518). However, none of the three were outstanding in a fantasy sense. Jacobs is a tough runner who was the best of the bunch, but he missed another three games last season and is becoming increasingly injury-prone despite the efforts of the team to lighten his workload to keep him healthy. Ward left in the offseason to go to Tampa Bay and, due to the fact that Bradshaw has fewer than 100 NFL carries in his career so far, who can say whether or not he’s ready to assume a larger role? Since the also unproven Danny Ware and the rookie Andre Brown are the only ones on the roster behind them, I wouldn’t count on the same type of production again this season.
The passing game seriously missed a major contribution from Plaxico “Cheddar Bob” Burress and no receiver ended up with more than 57 receptions or more than 596 yards. Unless the majority of those catches were caught for touchdowns (they weren’t), that translates to “fantasy wasteland”. Kevin Boss had a good year for a TE2, but was irrelevant in far too many games to count on. The Giants drafted both Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden and both could play a role this season. However, counting on production from a young group of receivers is unwise.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season’s Super Bowl champs are another one of those teams that some may assume will deliver decent fantasy production. Sadly, that’s hardly the case. As with the Giants, real life results don’t necessarily translate to fantasy success.
If you owned an actual NFL franchise, Ben Roethlisberger is exactly the kind of quarterback you would want as your main guy. He’s a tough, natural leader who can make all the throws and refuses to surrender regardless of the situation. Unfortunately, he’s a pretty average fantasy quarterback. His 206.3 Yards Per Game average and 17 touchdowns put him squarely in the bottom half of all signal callers last season. Ideally, you would want your starting quarterback in fantasy to throw 40 or more times in a game. “Big Ben” has done that just eight times over the course of the 72 games he has played. The 32 touchdowns he threw in 2007 is starting to look more and more like an aberration rather than a feat he can ever accomplish again.
Part of the reason that Roethlisberger doesn’t get enough opportunity is the fact that Pittsburgh loves to control the game by using it’s rushing attack (the Steelers rushed 460 times last season, the ninth most amount in the league.) However, lead rusher Willie Parker missed five games with a leg injury, something that severely compromised the unit as a whole. Pittsburgh soldiered on without him, but the effectiveness of the attack waned dramatically as they managed only 16 touchdowns and a 3.7 Yards Per Attempt average. Parker returned later in the season, but he will be turning 29 during the upcoming season, an age when many running backs begin to lose steam and succumb to injury more often. Mewelde Moore did a credible job filling in for Parker last year while he was out, but he lacks the ideal size and strength to be considered the long term answer at the position. Rashard Mendenhall only played four games last season and has yet to prove anything at the pro level.
The receiving corps is also a fantasy mirage. Though it boasts Hines Ward and Super Bowl hero Santonio Holmes, both those talented receivers operate under the same constraints that Roethlisberger does. The Pittsburgh defense held opponents to 10 points and under seven times last year. What that means is that there’s just no need for the Steelers to have a high-octane passing offense, something that’s not likely to change this season either. Even if Holmes does replace the aging Ward as the team’s top threat, it’s hard to imagine him topping Ward’s totals of last year (81 receptions, 1,043 yards, seven touchdowns). The team simply won’t throw enough to make either of them more than a fantasy WR2 in the best case scenario. TE Heath Miller’s reception ceiling seems to be around 50 per season, something that is, again, good but not great.
New York Jets
The Jets are a fantastic case in point of a team whose members you cannot draft based solely on last year’s statistics. Too much has changed about the offense....and not in a good way.
Take the quarterback position: Last year, the Jets brought in gunslinging hero Brett Favre for one last encore, something that resulted in disaster. Regardless of how it turned out, though, there were some definite positives to the move: Favre threw for 22 total touchdowns last year (and singlehandedly won Week Four for many lucky fantasy owners who played him when he recorded six touchdowns against Arizona) and ended up with 3,472 yards. After Favre retired, Gang Green drafted Mark Sanchez in the first round and seem determined to have the rookie start Week One over the experienced but unimpressive Kellen Clemens. Rookie quarterbacks rarely make a huge fantasy splash in the NFL. Even Matt Ryan, one of the more successful rookie signal callers in recent memory, only had 16 touchdowns and averaged 215 yards a game. The Jets offense is going to endure a period of transition under either Sanchez or Clemens.
Thomas Jones was an absolute revelation last season as he rushed for 1,312 yards (second best in his career) and 13 touchdowns (a career high for him). Regarding this year, though, there are two factors that go against him repeating that performance. He will be 31 years old when the season starts and could go downhill fast as his body breaks down. Also, the Jets lost TE Chris Baker in the offseason. Baker had a big mouth that his statistics never backed up, but he sure could block. New York has not replaced him but will certainly feel his absence in that respect. Leon Washington is in line for more carries this season, but his small frame probably will not support a huge workload. Rookie Shonn Greene is the heir apparent to Jones, but it will take time for him to learn the offense and acclimate himself to the pro game.
Laveranues Coles left in the offseason to go catch passes from Carson Palmer in Cincinnati, leaving Jerricho Cotchery as the main man in the air attack. While that would seem to bode well for him and his fantasy owners, he’s about to find out how difficult life is when you don’t have an accomplished threat lining up across the field from you. Cotchery will see the opponent’s best defensive back in every game now and will almost certainly be double-teamed on a frequent basis. It would be surprising to see him equal last season’s total of 71 receptions. Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney are scheduled to be the other receivers, but the two of them have played a total of 17 pro games between them. TE Dustin Keller had a good rookie campaign last year and his numbers should improve, but he may also be asked to stay in to block for the running game more.
