Chris Graley's O-Line Rankings

Note from Fantasy Football Trader:

The samples below of our 32 offensive lines rated in F.F.T.'s 2008 DraftKit is, simply the most exhaustive, comprehensive o-line analysis I've EVER seen ANYWHERE. A word of caution; the information below will look a bit daunting when you first see it. But in my opinion, Chris Graley has constructed his analysis here in a way that allows you to get some valuable insight while "staying in the shallow end" so to speak.

1) The "2008 Ultimate O-Line Tool" text is an excellent overview of what Chris' spreadsheet in the draftkit is capable of - and all of the working parts.

2) The "How to Get the Most out of This" text is must-read, especially the "secret sauce" section. It trains your eye to what you're looking at.

3) The forecaster grid: We've included the top 5 overall O-Lines of '08 as they stand today. As Chris will show you below, you don''t want to use the overall rankings. Make sure you're using the Projected Run Blocking Rank for RB's and Projected Pass Block Rank for QB's and WR's over on the right of the forecaster grid.

4) We've provided samples of the Packers and Giants Team breakdowns.

These samples are read-only, but Chris DraftKit spreadsheet will be fully interactive for you. What worked well for me is reading over Chris' supporting text, looking over the team breakdowns for awhile and THEN going back and scanning the supporting material once more. If you have any questions - feel free to email Chris at offensivelines@gmail.com

And if you're liking what you see - ORDER THE DRAFTKIT HERE!!! Chris stresses this below as well, but just so there's no misconceptions - these sample you're looking at are merely a starting point, that Chris will be updating on a bi-monthly basis all the way up to opening kickoff '08.

Other than that, take your time. It's a lot to chew on, but this badboy is worth it!

Sincerely ~ Rick Perkins.

2008 ULTIMATE OFFENSIVE LINE TOOL

I’d like to thank Rick and the rest of the Fantasy Trader staff for including me in what looks to be a simply awesome draft-kit this year! I think you guys are going to be overwhelmed with the amount of digested data you’re gonna get this year from what impresses me as an awesome staff! Now, let’s talk about my system. I’ve done several different o-line systems over the years and every year I seem to tweak the formula a little more. This year when Rick approached me for the draft kit, I decided to make 2 major changes to my normal formula. Normally, I would put my offensive line rankings out right before Week 1 of the season. Before camps started, I would get some preliminary rankings for the players that played last year and then all during camp I watch the growth of those players and the new rookies and refine my rankings. Then, right before the season starts I would compile those rankings and come up with a team grade. Since Fantasy Trader is designed to put info in your hands as soon as possible, that system would not have worked here. This year I’m doing the opposite. I’m giving you an overall Team analysis first, and refining that information during the pre-season based on my evaluations of players. Note these rankings can and will go up and down a lot during the pre-season! The second thing I wanted to do this year is to make my ranking system verifiable. I have gotten a lot of pats on the back for my previous rankings, but unlike the guys that rank QB’s or even IDP’s, it’s very hard to rank how o-lines performed at the end of the year separated from the skill positions that are around them. This year I will do just that. After week 17, I will use the same formula to judge my predictions as I’m using to analyze the o-line performances from last year. The rankings from last year are the closest thing your ever gonna see to separating the performance of the offensive line to that of the skill positions. Not only will I grade my rankings by how accurate I was, but I’m gonna grade them by how early I was correct. (Don’t ask me how I’m gonna do this yet, I’m still working on the formula)

Instructions: The first page of the spreadsheet is designed to show you an overview of the NFL o-lines.

I’m looking solely at 2 statistics. Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. More info on these statistics can be found here. These statistics are originally derived from Football Outsiders. I buy their Football Prospectus every year, and if you’re the mathematical type like me, you’ll love it too. Even if you’re not, you’ll find enough good writing and analysis to make the book more than worth it.

Last year’s performance: A team’s run scores and pass scores are determined by measuring every team’s percentage of the best team’s performance. The rankings are only there for 2007 because everybody likes rankings. You’re better off looking at the differences in the percentages. The overall ranking is an average of the team’s rankings in both the run and the pass. This is worthless for fantasy football purposes. You should be looking at a team’s run grade for your RB’s and pass grade for your QB’s and WR’s. You should only compare last year’s o-line grades to your player’s performance last year! Those grades mean nothing this year.

The secret sauce: The middle of the first page uses some variables from yours truly. I grade lines on my projected run improvement, pass improvement, cohesion, depth, injury risk, and players over 30. You are free to adjust any of these values as you see fit. Changing these rankings will definitely adjust the 2008 projections, so I suggest that if you make changes, you save your changes to a different file. You will notice that even the smallest change at this point can make a big difference on the rankings and you may find that you’re making a bigger adjustment than you were intending. As training camp goes on and I get a better separation between teams your changes won’t make as big of a difference.

This year’s projections: This is the both the easiest section and hardest section for people to deal with. I didn’t invent these numbers or manipulate them. They are simply a mathematical result of applying the secret sauce. You should not modify these numbers or the numbers for last year’s performance. They are just numbers of analysis. You can and should modify the secret sauce. Those numbers are numbers of projection.

The team pages: The team pages were designed to give you a better perspective of a team’s performance last year. You really shouldn’t change any of the #’s on this page. The biggest feature on these pages is a breakdown of run performance by direction. I also include last year’s injury history for the o-line and my personal comments. If you don’t like my comments you can change those at your will, also on any of the team pages, you can add your own comments in an unlimited amount below the page. I would suggest if you don’t like my comments, that you leave them on the page and type your reason for not liking them below. After all, the whole purpose of the draft kit is to make you a better fantasy player. If you take the latter suggestion, you can grade your theories at the end of the season. If you change any secret sauce numbers on the main page, they will automatically be adjusted on the team pages. So, don’t change secret sauce numbers on the team pages. Again it’s best to save your changes to a different file if you’re gonna change any numbers or comments or anything else.

What’s coming: A more individual player analysis and a slightly different secret sauce formula. As camp goes on, expect a roller coaster ride with the rankings. Do not take the current rankings too seriously. I don’t. Offensive line rankings will always be about the effectiveness of the unit, but the performance of any one individual can impact a line severely. That’s why it’s imperative to get as much info about any 1 lineman as you can. I’m used to getting a full camp’s info about a player and I’m adjusting on the fly this year. Expect big changes to the rankings until week 1 of the season.

How you can make this better: I get emails from a ton of people. So much so this year, that I’ve created a special email offensivelines@gmail.com. If you hear anything about a lineman, fact or rumor, I encourage you to email that address. You can also email it with your personal opinions about any line or lineman. Don’t be afraid of emailing me something you think I might already know. One of the things I use to validate a rumor is the number of reports I get. You can also recommend suggestions on the grading system, things you saw watching camp or things you’ve heard on a fan page. Don’t expect me to respond to your email. Like I said, I get a ton. I will sometimes follow up for clarity, but that’s about it. I will always recognize the first person to give me a tidbit of info and anyone after that expanding on that tidbit. For the few of you guys that know somebody that knows somebody, I’m eternally grateful for any o-line contacts you can give me. So far, I’ve been connected to 2 sportswriters thanks to my fans.

How to get the most out of this!

The rankings from last year are simply statistics and not opinions. They measure an o-lines contribution to performance and not actually the offense's performance. They should not be altered. The line will again be measured using the same variables at the end of the season. My success hinges on how well my projections meet those measurements. Also I will be grading myself on how soon I got it right. Now as far as "The Secret Sauce " goes, these are my variables and feel free to change any of these as you see fit. Like I said before, you're better off saving this to a different file if you make changes. You can then grade yourself and compare your results to mine. If you really feel brave, once the season starts you can adjust the spreadsheet every week and save it to a different file. At the end of the year, you'll be able to judge your weekly performance against mine. BTW, grading myself mathmatically is new and I could fail miserably.

The Secret Sauce:

Before I talk about the secret sauce, I want to talk about the hidden formula. The formula simply uses the secret sauce to create projections for the upcoming year. Right now this formula is fairly simple because I'm not taking into account individual players, but It will get very complicated right before week 1. You don't need to know the initial formula, it's the week 1 formula that you have to be concerned with. Don't ask me about the week 1 formula, I haven't figured it out yet. Remember I'm doing things backwards from what I usually do, so I need to take in account all the numbers and come up with what I feel is appropriate. It will be similar to what I've used in the past, but this year I'm using player statistics to tweak team statistics instead of the other way around. Now on to the secret sauce... RIght now there are 6 simple variables in the secret sauce. Run Improvement can be a positive or negative number. I can pick any number I want but the numbers probably will not be higher or lower than plus or minus 3. A negative number means performance will drop. Pass Improvement is graded the same way. Cohesion is simply the number of starters returning to the same position, ranked 0-5. Injury risk is the number of starters I feel have a risk of injury and this # can go higher than 5 if I think key backups have a risk too. Depth is the # of spots that have a good backup in place. Over 30 is simply the # of starters over 30. Every player over 30 has a risk of diminishing skills and the more of those players you have increases your team risk. 4 or 5 players over 30 usually means trouble. Some guys factor in average age, but rookies artificially lower that figure and have their own risks. A 20 year old and 2 34 year olds have an average age of 29 for example, but the risk level is much higher than 3 29 year olds.

Don't read too much into this!

I am very opinionated and will make a lot of comments about linemen. If you don't like them, then adjust the secret sauce. Everything else you see is just an equation. Don't screw up the equation because you didn't like what I said about your favorite team. Also if your gonna change the numbers, then try to get an understanding of them. There are a few teams that while I verbally put them through the ringer, have numbers that are very good. If in doubt, try to find a comparable team and compare the secret sauce numbers. All in all, have fun and adjust what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you if you break the equation. Also remember that these are initial rankings and will change quite a bit. If you do make adjustments, you may need to readjust on my next update.

The Forcaster Grid

TEAM Adj. Line Yards Adj. Sack Rate Run Score Pass Score Overall Score Overall Rank Run Imp Pass Imp Cohesion Depth Injury Risk Over 30 Proj Run Score Proj Run Rank Proj Pass Score Proj Pass Rank Proj Ovr Score Proj Ovr Rank

CLE 4.62 4.20% 97.67 96.7 194.37 2 1 2 5 3 1 2 107.67 1 111.70 1 219.37 1

NE 4.73 4.10% 100.00 97 197.00 1 1 1 5 2 3 2 107.00 2 104.00 2 211.00 2

NYG 4.62 5.00% 97.67 94.3 191.97 4 1 1 5 1 1 1 106.67 4 103.30 5 209.97 3

IND 4.51 4.20% 95.35 96.7 192.05 3 0 1 4 1 2 1 97.35 9 103.70 3 201.05 4

NO 4.39 3.60% 92.81 98.5 191.31 5 2 -2 4 3 2 1 106.81 3 92.50 18 199.31 5

Packers Sample

Green Bay Packers

ALY's and Ranks are as reported by Fantasy Football Outsiders . They analyze the effectiveness of runs by direction. While it is virtually impossible to attribute any given run to any given blocker, this system comes the closest that I've seen to doing so. Find out more about the Grading System at www.footballoutsiders.com

Left End Left Tackle Middle/Guard Right Tackle Right End Passing

ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank Sacks Rank

3.98 18 3.98 22 4.1 17 4.23 17 3.45 27 19 3

Depth Chart 2007 Injuries

Left Tackle Left Guard Center Right Guard Right Tackle G Jason Spitz: Week 4

Chad Clifton Daryn Colledge Scott Wells Jason Spitz Mark Tauscher C Scott Wells: Weeks 6 to 8

Breno Giacomini Junius Coston Jason Spitz Allen Barbre Breno Giacomini G Junius Coston: Weeks 6 to 9

Orrin Thompson Tony Moll Josh Sitton Tony Moll

Ryan Keenan

My comments Run Imp Pass Imp Cohesion Depth Inj Risk Over 30

1 -1 5 3 1 2

Clifton and Tasher are terrific pass blockers, but both make errors in the running game. The guards seem to have the same problem. I love Barbre's

athletic abilty and I think if he's improved enough mentally, he's taking somebody's job. My guess is the LG spot. Colledge was inconsistent and Coston is

injury prone. Giacomini looked really good in mini-camp and has an obvious mean streak. I'm really impressed with his pass blocking ability. The Packers

may have found a successor at tackle in the 5th round of the draft. One thing that will hurt this line, is the loss of Brett Farve. Farve had a way of making

himself time in the pocket and was not afraid of absorbing some punishment in the process. Rodgers will not be able to attempt the former in his first

season and if he attempts the latter, the line might be blocking for a green Brohm. Rodgers has already gotten hurt twice and has only seen action in about

7 games.

Giants Sample

New York Giants

ALY's and Ranks are as reported by Fantasy Football Outsiders . They analyze the effectiveness of runs by direction. While it is virtually impossible to attribute any given run to any given blocker, this system comes the closest that I've seen to doing so. Find out more about the Grading System at www.footballoutsiders.com

Left End Left Tackle Middle/Guard Right Tackle Right End Passing

ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank ALY Rank Sacks Rank

4.87 7 4.37 14 4.7 3 4.46 12 4.87 3 28 12

Depth Chart 2007 Injuries

Left Tackle Left Guard Center Right Guard Right Tackle C Shaun O'Hara Weeks 16 and 17

David Diehl Rich Seubert Shaun O’Hara Chris Snee Kareem McKenzie

Guy Whimper Grey Ruegamer Grey Ruegamer Kevin Boothe Adam Koets

Na'Shan Goddard

My comments Run Imp Pass Imp Cohesion Depth Inj Risk Over 30

1 1 5 1 1 1

Depth is the biggest problem on this line. They will be elite as long as the line and FB Hedgecock stay healthy. Look for Snee to move to T if 1 goes down.

The line is very versatile, but I can't stress enough how thin they are. If Hedgecock goes down, it's a colossal blow to the running game. If any lineman goes

down, expect a big decrease in the passing game. I don't think Manning is a QB that can play with a sub-par line yet. He's been behind a very good pass

blocking line for a few years now and has not taken advantage of it enough to be considered an elite QB as of yet. This year was his best, but he had a slow

start and never looked like a QB that had control of the game. Diehl surprised me when he made a successful transition to LT. I didn't think he had the