The following is a sneak preview of a section in the 2008 Fantasy Football Trader DraftKit. To get access to all of our premium value plays and busts - be sure to order the DraftKit which is available for download July 1st.
Quarterback Sleepers
Marc Bulger
Well if you read Michael Lewis’ The Blind Side, you know the importance of Orlando Pace to the Rams offense, more specifically, to Marc Bulger. Bulger felt the effects of minimal blind side protection both physically and on the stat sheet. 2007 was a year of firsts for Bulger – the first time his completion percentage was under 60 %, first time his QB Rating was under 80.0, and the first time he threw more interceptions than touchdowns. The injuries to Bulger, Pace, and Steven Jackson were the primary culprits for this lack of production, but don’t expect the downward spiral to continue in 2008. After playing in only eight games in 2005, Bulger had the best year of his career in 2006 with 4,301 yards and 24 touchdowns. Don’t let the absence of Isaac Bruce scare you, Bulger is poised for a bounce back season and should be drafted as a Number One Quarterback after the tops at the position are off the board.
Quarterback Busts
Big Ben had an outstanding season in 2007, with a 104.1 QB rating and 32 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. He was just as good in the second half as he was in the first, and he even ran for two more touchdowns. Roethlisberger is certainly a solid quarterback, but his supporting cast is not nearly as good as some other quarterbacks in the league. Hines Ward is getting old – his yardage totals have declined or stayed the same every year since 2002, and Santonio Holmes, while a legitimate deep threat, is not a Number One wide out, he’ll have to catch more than 60 passes before you can say that. Heath Miller is a good tight end, but again not a featured target. Finally, the Steelers have always been a run-first team, and drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the first round should mean they use the Mendenhall-Parker two-headed monster to wear teams down. Roethlisberger won’t make many mistakes, but if you’re hoping for 32 TDs, you’re dreaming. Look for 3,000 yards and 20-23 TDs.
Running Back Sleepers
Maurice Jones-Drew
After his whopping 13 touchdowns in 2006, Jones-Drew’s fantasy owners probably found themselves a little perplexed by the 223 carries and 1,202 yards Fred Taylor notched as the Jaguars’ “primary” rusher in 2007. Despite splitting carries, though, Jones-Drew still netted 768 yards of his own on the ground and more than 400 receiving yards. And his touchdown numbers fell, but he still had nine. As good as Fred Taylor was, even he knows that Jones-Drew is the future of the team, and with Taylor’s age (32), you can expect Jones-Drew to be the more productive fantasy back once again. In fact, the mere 167 carries Jones-Drew had last year will go a long, long way to help his production in 2007. Of the five top rushers in 2007 – Tomlinson, Westbrook, Peterson, Portis, and Jamal Lewis, only Lewis and Tomlinson had more than 300 carries. Westbrook had just 240, and both Peterson and Portis were hurt the year before. Conversely, besides Tomlinson, the five other running backs with the most carries in ’06 had off years in ’07. They were Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson. In the NFL, keeping your runner fresh can be as important as anything, just ask Reggie Bush, and Jones-Drew is in line for a big, breakout season. He could end up one of the best backs in the league this year.
Brandon Jacobs
No, Jacobs won’t be a top five running back in the league, but he will still be very productive. Don’t let him slip too far, expecting Ahmad Bradshaw to eat into his workload. Despite Jacobs’ lackluster finish to the season, he still had over 1,000 yards and did it on just 202 carries – with an outstanding average of 5.0 yards a carry for a featured back. Incredibly, Jacobs only produced four touchdowns in 2007, the lowest of his career, causing all of his fantasy owners to scratch their heads all season long. Mark my words, Jacobs will hit the ten-touchdown plateau this season, and could even go higher. The 202 carries last season will help in keeping him fresh this year, and getting plays off to give carries to Bradshaw will be a good thing for the 264-pound bruiser, who could use a breather every once in a while. A more confident Eli Manning will at times showcase a wide open offense – and Jacobs’ downhill running will serve as the perfect contrast. Pick him as a decent Number One runner, and be ecstatic if he’s your Number Two.
Running Back Busts
Edgerrin James
Nine years in the league + 30 years old to start the year + at least 310 carries each of the last fives seasons = ??? Bust Alert, Bust Alert, Bust Alert. Yes, Edge has at least 1,000 yards and six touchdowns in five straight seasons, but look more closely at the numbers. In his last two years, Edge has a measly 3.4 and 3.8 yards per carry respectively, and he has 421 receiving yards over the two seasons combined. If the Cardinals expect to win by running Edgerrin a lot, they can expect an injury by midseason. A much better idea is to feature Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and use James as a change of pace. At this point in career, Edgerrin’s ability to make people miss is waning, and expecting more than nine seasons from a running back is a lot to ask. That’s not to say Edge isn’t up to the task mentally, but his body might not allow it. Running backs in the NFL take a beating, and at this point it’s only a matter of time until Edge’s body can’t take any more. If he’s your number two back, keep your fingers crossed.
Jamal Lewis
Surprisingly, Lewis bounced back last year to up his yards per carry average back over four to 4.4, he scored nine times, and ran for 1,304 yards. It really was a testament to his desire and his toughness as he basically ran over people all year long. Still, for all his fantasy points, Lewis’ year basically came down to the five games he went over 100 yards, and one was a 216-yard effort in the 51-45 win over the Bengals. In fact, in eight of the games last year, Lewis couldn’t even hit the 65-yard mark. Sure, Lewis could have some big games again, but you look for consistency in a Number One back, and Lewis just doesn’t have it. In his three worst statistical games, he averaged 2.8, 2.2, and 1.9 yards per carry respectively. Lewis will still be just 29 at season’s start, but like Edgerrin James, the league has taken its toll on Jamal. If he can start 15 games, it will be a surprise.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Calvin Johnson
Johnson’s year in 2007 was a big disappointment for owners that drafted him early in hopes of a Randy Moss-like rookie campaign. Johnson only hauled in 48 passes for 756 yards and hit pay dirt just four times. He did, however, hurt his back early in the season, causing him to miss one game, and by all reports, severely limited him in others. At a position that requires quickness and jumping ability, a back injury can leave you just healthy enough to be on the field and injured enough to look really bad. Still, if you break down Johnson’s first half and his second it’s like night and day. While he had two touchdowns in each, Johnson had just 15 catches for 273 yards in the first half while he had 33 catches for 483 yards in the second half. Expect a little more improvement in year two, and that’s a 1,000 yard season. Many fantasy owners will sleep on Johnson because Mike Martz left and the Lions are expected to run the ball more often, but that will actually work in Johnson’s favor. The limited passing game will hurt Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey more than Johnson and Roy Williams, as the Lions will go with more two-receiver sets. A more prevalent run game could open up the play-action pass and Johnson will be the main beneficiary. Look for Calvin to be a solid Number Two receiver with a puncher’s chance of crashing the top 15.
Anthony Gonzalez
When Gonzalez arrived in Indianapolis last year, the rap on him was he ran good routes and had good speed. Many expected him to overtake Dallas Clark as the third option in Indy last year, but through Week 10 it just didn’t happen. Like Calvin Johnson, Gonzalez’ limited success early in his rookie season really brought down his yearly numbers, but are not at all indicative of his overall ability. With 37 catches for 576 yards and three touchdowns, Gonzalez was no better than an average third receiver last year for the Colts – and was off the map for many fantasy leagues. But if you’re looking for a guy who will produce and has the potential to be excellent, Gonzalez is your man. Over the last six weeks of the season he caught all three of his touchdowns, went over 100 yards twice, and totaled 382 yards in five games. Even though Dallas Clark was still the third option last year, Gonzalez will be it this year now with a full season under his belt and budding chemistry between him and Peyton Manning. In that high-powered offense, and given Marvin Harrison’s injury questions, 1,000 yards is a distinct possibility for Gonzalez.
Wide Receiver Busts
Roddy White
White had a crazy breakout season in 2007 with 1,202 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season, but you’ll rarely see an easier 1,200 yards. White had his two best games of the season in December when the Falcons were well out of the playoff race, and all five of his 100-yard games came in Falcons losses, meaning that many of his yards were garbage yards. With Michael Bennett on the team, and Matt Ryan potentially starting the year under center, the Falcons will use this season to work on building their team, not to air it out once the team gets down by a large margin. Last year White had a catch longer than 30 yards in nine different games. White did prove that he knows how to beat people down the field, and he will continue to do that from time to time, but now defenses will respect him more and will probably give him more of a cushion, limiting those deep balls. If you’re drafting him as your Number One wide receiver, you’re in for a rude awakening.
Reggie Williams
As ridiculous as White’s 1,202 yards are, Reggie Williams’ ten touchdowns are even more so, as he did it on just 38 catches. You could call him a red zone target, but more appropriately you can just call him lucky – many times this season he probably found himself in the end zone saying, “Look what I found!” The Jaguars signed both Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter in the offseason, and Williams is currently listed as the 5th wide receiver on the depth chart behind those two, Matt Jones, and Dennis Northcutt. While Reggie Williams’ 6’4, 212 frame could still garner him a few touchdown catches this year, expecting half of what he did last year is too much. Don’t pick Williams as anything more than a bye-week replacement in fantasy leagues this year – and if you start him on a bye week, be well aware he could have one of those one catch for 11 yards weeks.
Tight End Sleepers
Benjamin Watson
Watson is an enormous talent who plays on the best offense in football with the Patriots, so the fact that he might be slipping in drafts is perplexing. Watson was only healthy enough to start eight games last year and only played in 12, but he still caught six touchdowns, though his 389 yards are less than desirable. Still, Watson has great speed for a tight end, which he showcased chasing down Champ Bailey in the playoffs a few years ago, and defenses can only focus on so many guys in an offense. Double Randy Moss and Wes Welker torches the defense, double Welker, too, and that leaves a LB singled up on Ben Watson. Nine out of ten LBs in the NFL just can’t stick with Watson, and he’ll continue to rack up better than average fantasy stats again this year, even if it’s for nothing else than the offense he plays in. Watson had offseason ankle surgery which is scaring some owners off, but it shouldn’t cause too much worry. He has better than average talent for a TE, and given that Patriots’ offense, he should beat his numbers from last year easily.
Tight End Busts
Donald Lee
Last year Donald Lee was one of the biggest breakouts in fantasy – his numbers weren’t fantastic, but his 575 yards were only 100 shy of his total over his first four years combined. Further, he entered 2007 with four total touchdowns, and had six last year alone. The same way Dallas Clark and Benjamin Watson produce in high powered offenses, Lee did the same in 2007 as Brett Favre rode out in style with one of the Packers best offensive seasons in some time. In 2008, Lee will remain the starting tight end in Green Bay, but that position will not be such a good one as far as fantasy goes. Ryan Grant is a talented rusher and Brandon Jackson is improving behind him. Meanwhile, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones are the three most talented receivers on the team and they’ll be the primary targets for Aaron Rodgers. Assuming Favre doesn’t come out of retirement yet again, Lee’s production will fall. He could be a serious bust if you expect him to be your top tight end.
