In the 2008 preseason, fantasy owners approached both of these backs cautiously, but by the end of the season, Williams and Forte sat at #1 (308.5) and #2 (306.5), respectively, in PPR leagues. Forte’s ADP, around pick #75, highlighted the typical owner skepticism surrounding any rookie performer, while Williams’ ADP, around pick #91, was expected due to the young back’s previously underwhelming seasons spent in a solidified RBBC. In fact, Williams’ rookie counterpart, Jonathan Stewart, was generally drafted over 20 spots ahead of him (and several spots ahead of Forte, for that matter), showing just how little faith owners had in Williams.

A funny thing happened on the way to mediocrity, however...

After sleepwalking through the first seven weeks of the season (478 total yards, 4 TDs), Williams exploded, scoring 16 TDs and averaging nearly 6.5 YPC to close the season. He and Stewart combined for 2351 rushing yards, the largest total for a backfield duo in 24 years. For his part, Forte remained a largely consistent presence throughout the season, rushing for 1238 yards and 8 TDs, but really bolstered his value with 63 receptions and 4 receiving TDs.

Heading into 2009, these backs are inextricably linked due to their proximity in last season’s final standings as well as their inevitable places near the top of all early 2009 mock drafts. Which one can owners count on to deliver once again next season?

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS 

Neither of these backs is without his issues in 2009. Williams remains part of a committed RBBC, and the former first-round pick Stewart will be breathing down his neck beginning in spring practices and continuing throughout the season. Stewart was hampered by injury as well as some difficulty learning the playbook, but there is little doubt that Stewart is as talented as any of the fabulous rookie runners in the 2008 draft class. Sooner or later, the team will turn to Stewart as their primary back, and if Williams starts as slowly as he did in 2008, expect that day to come quickly.

Forte, on the other hand, has no visible competition for touches. He carried the ball 314 times in 2008 (Kevin Jones was second on the team with 34) and led the team in receptions. In fact, no running back in the NFL accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s total offense than Forte, but that statistic has raised some eyebrows in Chicago’s front office. Said GM Jerry Angelo earlier this month:

"When you look around the league, everybody is implementing a dual running back system. Your number one usually touches the ball around 20 times. The other back gets 10 to 12 to 15 touches. That's a good balance. … I'm confident we'll get back to that." – Chicago Tribune, 1/18/2009 

Whether or not the Bears currently have anybody on their roster who can handle that kind of load is the team’s issue, but fantasy owners need to monitor the situation in Chicago carefully when evaluating Forte as a high-round pick this season. The team clearly was not happy with their backups (Jones, Adrian Peterson and Garret Wolfe) last season and will look to add a solid option this off season. If that option comes in the form of short-yardage specialist, approach Forte with a bit more caution on draft day.

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS 

It is in keeper/dynasty leagues where Forte clearly shines over Williams as an option. Forte enters his second season as a bona fide first-round pick on a team committed to running the football, and even if the team adds a talented tailback to complement him, conservative projections should have Forte eclipsing 300 total touches with ease. He is as safe a keeper prospect as owners will find this off season.

Williams presents a stickier situation. Coming off a 20 TD campaign in just his third season, he’ll almost certainly be one of the first backs off the board, making him an excellent keeper option by most standards. The issue, as previously stated, is Stewart. What kind of a role will he play in the offense going forward? Owners won’t be able to answer these questions until later this summer.

SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 

Simply stated, the Bears don’t have somebody who can provide them the same kind of punch and explosiveness out of the backfield as Forte. Angelo’s comments considered, it’s one thing to say that the team is looking for a complementary back and another thing entirely to actually find one who provides the team with the flexibility to put their best player on the sideline for extended stretches. Until they do so, Forte remains one of the top options next season.

Eleven of Williams’ touchdowns came on plays of 10 yards or more. Seven of those touchdowns came on plays of 25 yards or more. It’s very difficult for owners to count on those types of big plays season-to-season. When owners consider that eight of Stewart’s 10 TDs came on plays of 10 yards or less (and not a single TD play over 22 yards), it’s easy to see where the majority of the Panthers’ scores will come from in 2009.

BOTTOM LINE 

Until and unless the Bears sign a notable short-yardage tailback, Forte will remain one of the most obvious high-round picks in 2009. Williams will be there as well, but the issues surrounding his sustained dominance should give any seasoned owner reason to hesitate.

REDRAFT EDGE: Forte
+++++

KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Forte
+++++

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