24 Mar 2008
By Jon Lopuch
NFC South Update - 8-6-08
Since last time we talked...
Falcons
As we predicted, Atlanta drafted Matt Ryan in the first round. He is currently competing to start.
Panthers
Our prediction of Deangelo Williams getting featured carries went out the window with the Panthers' pick of Jonathon Stewart. He now figures to be the workhorse back and see most of the goal line carries.
Saints
The addition of Jeremy Shockey's sure hands could mean even bigger things from this passing Offense, with Drew Brees being a notable beneficiary.
Tampa Bay
Tampa did not draft a Wide Receiver as we predicted, so Antonio Bryant and Joey Galloway appear ready to start, with Maurice Stovall also in the mix.
Atlanta Falcons
Where Are They?: The Falcons are a troubled franchise, especially in the quarterbacking department. Currently their depth chart consists of Chris Redman, Joey Harrington, and D.J. Shockley, which should cause owner Arthur Blank to wake up in a cold sweat every night. That trio of ineptitude should have fantasy owners a bit leery of Roddy White, who last year became the latest receiver to break out in his third season when he posted 1,202 yards and six touchdowns. White produced those numbers despite shaky quarterbacking, so there is hope for him to be a weekly starter again this year. However, any excitement about the members of the Falcons passing attack ends there, especially with Alge Crumplernow making music in Nashville as a member of the Titans.
The Falcons may have lost a reliable pass catcher over the offseason, but they made a big splash when they added former Charger Michael Tuner to the mix via free agency. Turner was tantalizingly successful as the backup to LaDainian Tomlinson in recent seasons and now gets the chance to carry the load himself. The problem is that Falcons offensive line is poor and there will be no aerial support to distract defenses. Those factors will prevent him from being a top fantasy back, although he should still be ranked among your top 20 runners.
What’s Next?: Atlanta holds the third pick in the draft and would love the chance to select Matt Ryan as their next franchise quarterback. While history has taught us a new quarterback won’t translate into immediate offensive improvement, acquiring the consensus best signal caller in the draft is the right move long-term. If the Boston College product is off the board before Atlanta picks, the Falcons should grab a lineman and then look for quarterback in round two.
Carolina Panthers
Where Are They?: Like the Falcons, Carolina has issues under center. Jake Delhommeis on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery, and although he is expected to be ready for training camp, the Panthers need to read the writing on the wall and add some depth. They did add some depth at receiver over the offseason, bringing back Mushin Muhammad and welcoming D.J. Hackett to the mix. Those guys will play second (and third) fiddle to the explosive Steve Smith, but their presence, combined with the return of Delhomme, should make life easier on Smith and allow him to be a more consistent fantasy producer than ‘07.
While the Panthers added talent to their receiving corps, they lost half of their running back tag team when DeShaun Foster went to San Francisco (no word on if he had flowers in his hair). The loss of Foster, who had 247 carries last season, is a godsend to the fantasy value of DeAngelo Williams, the team’s first-round pick in 2006. Williams was an incredibly productive back during his college days and there are plenty of people, myself included, who are excited to see DeAngelo finally get a chance to be a workhorse. However, this will be his first shot at being a feature back in the pros, which should raise a red flag for fantasy owners as they populate their running back rankings.
What’s Next?: Any enthusiasm for Williams will be curbed if the Panthers spend an early draft pick on another runner. Carolina would be better off if they used a prime selection on a pass-catching tight end like Fred Davis or John Carlson. Another pressing offensive need is at receiver because the two guys they added this spring are old (Muhammad) or injury prone (Hackett). The Panthers could also look to the draft for the heir apparent to Delhomme, targeting Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, or Joe Flacco in the second round.
New Orleans Saints
Where Are They? The Saints have plenty of talent at the skill positions, which makes fantasy owners happier than a man with a handful of beads during Mardi Gras. Drew Brees and his subtle birthmark followed up his impressive New Orleans debut with an even better fantasy campaign that featured 4,423 yards and 28 scores. After a slow start, wideout Marques Colston avoided a sophomore slump by registering 98 catches for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns. Both players will be among the first at their positions to be taken off the board during fantasy drafts, and their excellent chemistry should bear fruit for years to come.
Reggie Bush will also be a popular fantasy commodity, although the only format in which he’s lived up to expectations is PPR leagues. Bush finished last season with just 998 total yards and six touchdowns, and it is time for him to prove he is more than just the latest over-hyped college player to disappoint fantasy owners. Bush’s backfield partner, Deuce McAllister, is looking to recover from a knee injury which required both arthroscopic and microfracture surgery.
What’s Next?: Deuce claims he’ll be ready to go for training camp, but this was his second major knee injury in three seasons, so nothing is certain. If he can fully recover, he’ll return to his role of goal line back and “thunder” to Bush’s “lightning.” If he can’t return to form, expect to see more of the undrafted Pierre Thomas than you ever thought you would. New Orleans is also looking to develop a second reliable wideout to team with Colston. Yet with all their defensive needs, it seems unlikely that they will spend another high pick on the position. As such, they will be counting on last year’s first selection, Robert Mechem, to step up and battle David Patten and Devery Henderson for a starting spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where Are They?: Ponce De Leon spent much of his life searching Florida for the Fountain of Youth, but it appears to be Joey Galloway who finally discovered it. The 36-year-old turned in his third straight 1,000-yard campaign and will enter this season as the team’s primary deep threat once again. Despite his age, Galloway is reliable enough to be a weekly starter in deeper fantasy leagues and is no worse than a No. 3 in most formats. Tampa Bay signed Antonio Bryant hoping that he finally gets his head on straight and translates his skills into production on the field. Of course, they will now be the fourth team to hope that, so don’t hold your breath. If Bryant fails to take advantage of this chance, Maurice Stovall could emerge as a sleeper because of his height and the fact this will be his third year in the league. Jeff Garcia will be the man throwing the pigskin around, but he is a marginal fantasy option at this point in his career, and at his age (38) things won’t be improving in a dramatic way.
Earnest Graham emerged out of nowhere in 2007 to earn a full-time role following the injury to Cadillac Williams and scored 10 touchdowns. Williams says he will play in 2008, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury (torn patellar tendon) and it seems more likely that he’ll miss the season. Tampa clearly isn’t counting on a full recovery because they signed Warrick Dunn for a second tour of duty with the team. The smart money is on Graham being the workhorse, and a solid fantasy option, with Dunn also getting a healthy number of touches as the change-of-pace and third-down option.
What’s Next?: With the first round of free agency essentially over, the only way for the Bucs to add a playmaker in the passing game will be through the draft. Tampa could use a top wideout in case Bryant is a bust and Stovall doesn’t develop. A player like Limas Sweed or Malcolm Kelly would be welcomed additions, as would DeSean Jackson, although his biggest impact would likely be as a return specialist.
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