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Don't "Emmons" Your Draft ~ Rick Perkins


19 Aug 2008

 






'Tis the season and FF drafts are in full swing across the country.  Every once in awhile a piece of the real world crosses over to the fantasy sports realm that is my mind and sparks an article idea.  Sunday evening I was checking my email and spotted a news link titled, Last Shot Sinks American --- AGAIN!  For full effect, you just have to click on the link and read this comedy of errors for yourself.  But for those of you pressed for time, the Cliff's Notes version is that American Matt Emmons just Roy Munsoned the "50m Rifle - Three Positions" event at the Beijing Olympics earlier today. 



And as an aside, what the hell?  Three positions?!  The 50m Rifle is such a crucial event that we need to take it to the next level?  What's next?  Doubles Weak-Handed Ping-Pong During Keg Stand?  I digress. 



The Cliff's Notes:  In the 2004 Olympics - Emmons, leading the field by three points heading into the last shot from lane two, "fired at the target in lane three."  Seriously!  All he has to do on the last shot is draw paper and he loses because he aims at the wrong target!  But we're not even close to done kids.  Trumping that level of stupidity, we fast forward to Saturday where Emmons needed less than 7 points on the final shot. Anything under 8.0 is "ususually bad" to quote AP writer Noah Trista.  Get this.  As Emmons is aiming for his final shot he After-School Special's it!  The rifle just goes off and he misses everything!



Unreal.  The only thing I can equate it to is Michael Phelps losing by literally DROWNING in 6 feet of water a meter from the wall.  Anyway, all of this got me thinking about whether or not it was possible to "Emmons" a Fantasy Football Draft.  That despite hours upon hours of studying and refining cheatsheets, you just completely choke the draft.  While the answer I ultimately came to was "no", not for the true FF veteran anyway; I did come up with NINE "lesser evils" that can be (and often have been) committed this year.  You do all of this prep for a reason, so relax and for God's sake - don't Emmons your draft with these gems!







DO NOT draft a TE before your #2 RB.  This one's specific to those of you with a later first round pick in redrafts (1.09-1.12) that went WR-WR-RB in the first 3 rounds or some other combo leaving you with one RB.  It's common sense that says you simply need to get that 2nd RB before you can can roster a luxury like Gates or Witten but in the heat of the moment it's easy to make this mistake.  You'll be very surpised at the steaming pile of RB's that make it back to you in round five. 



DO NOT forget the Bye Week with your RB3 or WR4 (in start three leagues).  Now I'm not a big bye week watcher by nature.  In fact, last year I penned a column titled "Debunking the Myth of the Bye Week Blues" and the jist of it was that stacking up starters with one or two common bye weeks is actually a good thing.  And that remains very true for #2 RB's and #2-#3 WR's.  But when you get down into the 7th-8th rounds and you're eyeing RB and WR depth, there's simply no reason to take your 27th rated RB with the same bye as your #1 RB over your 28th rated RB with a different bye. 



For you projection hounds, you already know that the seasonal fantasy point difference between these two guys can typically be counted on 2 hands (if not one).  Once you get down into the late 20's and 30's in your positional rankings, you're beginning to split hairs anyway so pay attention to bye weeks after round 7



DO NOT leave Calvin Johnson on the board beyond your 4th round redraft pick this year. With 150 yds and 2 TD's in just over 2 1/2 preseason quarters of play, mark my words - this is the last time you get to draft C.J. as a #2 fantasy WR. 



DO NOT draft RB/RB with your first two redraft picks after 1.08.  The value isn't there this year.  Grab Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss or Terrell Owens instead (or Brady/Manning for those of you in 6 pt. for pass TD leagues).  The RB's are DEEP, with plenty of serviceable #2's routinely making it back to me in the 3rd round of my mocks. 



DO NOT draft the 6th-9th QB's off the board this year.  This year there's Brady, Manning, Brees, Romo, Palmer and then everyone else.  If you miss out on those five --- wait, wait, and wait some more.  Keep stockpiling those WR starters and RB depth instead.



DO NOT let Pierre Thomas or Chris Perry go undrafted in a 16 round redraft, Chris Brown (Hou) go undrafted in an 18 round redraft or Antonio Bryant go undrafted in a 20 round redraft. 



DO NOT pass on Kurt Warner as a Matt Lienart owner in the 14th round.  Arizona's starting QB is top 15 because of those WR's.  Yes - Lienart is the starter, but don't go mocking the fantasy gods by shunning Warner in lieu of a super-sleeper. 



DO NOT handcuff Chester Taylor to Adrian Peterson.  It's a luxury you cannot afford. 



DO NOT get ahead of yourself on sleepers.  I see it every year and this year will be no different.  Trendy sleepers like Donte Stallworth, Chris Johnson and Nate Burleson will inexplicably go ahead of Fred Taylor, LenDale White, Derrick Mason and Santana Moss in many drafts.  There's a time and place for these guys and remember, they're only sleepers if you take them at "value".  If you're the guy that takes Chris Johnson in the 6th round, (even if he performs to your level of expectation) you've gained nothing in terms of value.  


Do you have some Emmonsesque "Do Not..." tips of your own?  I'd love to hear them over in the forums!

 

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