Let’s take, for example, a trade swapping two WR's who have each scored EXACTLY the same amount of fantasy pts. at the 4 week mark of the season. That is the most “even” trade I can think of by the simplest definition. Yet, you’d better believe there IS a winner and a loser in that trade. There are simply too many variables to factor into the equation which can raise/lower a player’s value over the course of an NFL season/seasons.

 

Which player has a greater history of injury? Has one of the player’s had a bye and the other hasn't? Who has the softer playoff schedule? In Keeper/Dynasty leagues – which player is older? Who has the better supporting cast? I could go on and on but hopefully you get the point. NOTICE I DID NOT SAY THAT BOTH TEAMS CANNOT BE IMPROVED IN A TRADE!  Perhaps I'm using poor word choices with "winner" and "loser".  It's just that 99.9% of the time, one of the teams had to improve more.  If I can get you to at least agree with me on that, then I think we're on the same page. 

 

So knowing in advance that in all but the most isolated circumstances, there WILL be a winner and at least a "lesser winner" – what should our goal be? To not screw the other guy too bad?!  No. If you can, by some alignment of the stars, get Peyton Manning for Heath Miller and the Cards DEF/ST then perfect! I’m happy for you and it should not be reversible by some jealousy-riddled league vote.

 

Now I understand there are special circumstances where owner A, sitting at 1-7 is best friends with owner B and he decides at some point, he’s out of it anyway so he may as well dump Roethlisberger and Fitzgerald to his buddy. I’d argue there are ways to combat this without having a veto-rule in place and would be happy to debate that topic with you in the forums. Okay, so I’m assuming from this point forward we’re all on the same page. We agree that the goal of every trade is to get as much as possible while giving up as little as possible and that in every trade there is a winner and a "loser".

So how do we identify when/who we need to trade?  It’s not enough to simply look at your roster and decide “Wow, I’m 1-3 and these guys suck. I gotta make a deal”. It’s important to identify who on your team is under performing relative to his peers. I’d like to share a little exercise with you that I do with my fantasy teams on every even numbered week of the NFL season.

 

Using Wide Receiver’s as an example, let’s say I have Holt, Houshmanzadeh, Nate Burleson, Rod Smith and Troy Williamson. I’m participating in a 10-team league. I take the best performing WR's from the 9 other teams in my league and figure their point per game average. I then compare this to my #1 WR (Holt) and figure his point per game avg. I determine that Holt is well above the #1 WR avg. so we have no worries there. I move onto my #2 WR (Housh) and compare his point per game avg. to 9 other #2 WR's’s p.p.g. avg.  Again, we determine Housh is more than holding his own against the average #2 WR in my fantasy league.

 

Earlier, when I talked about determining how a player is performing relative to his peers, this is what I was talking about. Since Houshmandzadeh is my #2 WR, his “peers” are all of the other #2 WR’s in my league. At some point in this process, unless you are completely dominating your league – you will find your squeaky wheel. Let’s assume that for me, my #3 WR is under performing relative to the average of his peers. It’s not okay to simply stop at stats. We need to consider all plausible reasons for why he is not performing at the league #3 WR average.

 

When I do this little exercise, I like to have a complete list of defensive rankings vs. the pass and vs. the run close by. Maybe my #3 is lagging because of a brutal 1st half schedule. Also, look ahead and see how his playoff schedule is looking. Have injuries to his supporting cast depressed his numbers? Did he see a recent uptick in stats after the offensive coordinator was fired? Look beyond the stats to determine where his value is headed.

 

(Note: There is another, much less time consuming way of determining where you might need to make an upgrade on your roster. As a general rule of thumb, in a 10 team league, your #1 WR should be in the top 5. Your #2 WR should be in the top fifteen. Your # 3 should be in the top 25 – etc. This will generally serve you just as well in finding under performing players on your team. Common sense would tell you that if you’re in a 10 team league and you only have two WR's in the top 30 – you have a problem that needs to be addressed.

Now once we identify our under performing player whose schedule and recent performance offer no reason for optimism it’s time to identify potential suitors for a trade.  In an upcoming article posting Monday January 29th we'll discuss how to structure a trade and where to find ripe trade opportunities titled "How to find Win/BIG Win Opportunities".