by Rick Perkins  

M.J.D.  Maurice Jones-Drew or "Many Justifiable Debates".  Take your pick.  Whatever side of the fence you stand on with Jones-Drew's fantasy future, one thing is for certain.  You're not alone. 



Fact:  M.J.D. averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year.  8th for running backs with 150+ carries. 

Fact:  His 10.2 yards per reception was only bested by Adrian Peterson among RB's with 40+ rec.

Fact:  He has finished the 8th and 13th best RB overall his 1st two years in the league (despite never exceeding 167 rushing attempts).

Fact:  Fred Taylor is 32 years old.  You can count on your hands and feet the number of times a 32+ y.o. RB has toted the rock 200+ times in a season since 1960.  I know you can never predict a RB's "wall"; but for Taylor - NOW would not be an awful bet. 



Fact:  Fred Taylor's 5.4 y.p.c. was 3rd in the league for RB's with 150+ carries.

Fact:  Taylor's two best ypc seasons were 2006 and 2007.  The guy appears to be getting better.

Fact:  Of RB's to carry over 10,000 yards in the NFL, Taylor's 4.69 yards per carry trails only Barry Sanders and Tiki Barber!

Fact:  M.J.D. had only two 100+ yards games last year and ten sub-50 yd. games.



So the stats are certianly there to support whatever argument you might want to form about M.J.D.'s future.  Haters would beg the question, "So who's to say when Taylor's production drops off, M.J.D. doesn't just slip into a timeshare with another back?"  A fair arguement.  They would also point to the fact that at 5'7" and 208 lbs - the guy's physique certainly doesn't scream "prototype". 



Jones-Drew supporters would counter with the fact that M.D.J. isn't exactly sitting there playing 2nd fiddle to Cedric Benson.  Taylor is less than 1,500 yards shy of ending his career in the top 10 rushing leaders all-freaking-time!  Unlike what many would have you believe, you don't just pull Fred Taylor's out of nowhere. 



So we have a good handle on the argument, what's the truth?  Will Jones-Drew ever get his shot as a standalone 250+ carry workhorse back?  And more importantly, what will he do with that opportunity?  I don't know.  Nobody does.  But here's a question nobody seems to be asking which I'd sure like an answer to.  Has a RB ever been as productive in the history of the NFL as M.J.D. in his first two seasons and NOT gotten his chance as a featured running back?  



Unfortunately there's no tangible way to research the answer to that question.  You see, when I say, "Has anyone ever been as productive...."  I'm not just talking about some yard per carry average or Jones-Drew's knack for breaking off 20+ yarders.  He's also proven himself to be an extremely capable blocker and as a receiver his spacing is almost flawless (read: he always seems to be where he's supposed to be).  Those things might not mean very much to us fantasy geeks but, rest assured, they matter in terms of Del Rio's decision making for MJD's reps. 



Speaking of HC Jack Del Rio, the man with whom the lil' big guy's fate rests; here's a quote from a March '08 press conference with Del Rio where he was quoted as saying, "...we also know that Fred can't do it forever.  At some point, Fred will get less and Maurice will get more but there's no reason to rush that."  That's about as definative an answer as you'll ever get.



For this being an article forecasting MJD's future, I've sure spent a lot of time telling you what you already know.  So let's get to the prognosticating.  The fact remains that Maurice has never had more than 167 rushing attempts in either of his two seasons AND finished as the 8th and 13th RB overall. 



Let's take an imaginary trip to December.  Assuming Taylor defies the odds that many 32 year old RB's before him have been unable to and MJD remains the Jags 1B in the backfield all year.  I researched 3 major media sources and they currently have MJD ranked 11th, 14th and 15th in their RB rankings.  Over at Mock Draft Central, Jones-Drew is coming off the board 16th (27th overall).  Folks, that's highway robbery when you consider that his worst case numbers stack him up favorably against the other #2 fantasy backs in your league. 



Dynasty leaguer's?  Forget about it.  As if the guy needed another plus mark next to his name, he's deceptively young.  The dude is the same age as Adrian Peterson.  Does the future hold a 250+ carry season for Maurice and will he "run" with it when he gets it?  I don't know.  What I do know is that he'll be on my dynasty roster when we find out.