7 Apr 2008
  VS 
by Jon Rascon HOLMES WHITE
252.40 pts 316.50 pts
Ht: 5'11" Ht: 6'0"
Wt: 189 lbs Wt: 206 lbs
The championship rounds. In boxing, it's the last 3 rounds (10th, 11th and 12th). In fantasy football drafts, its more like the 5th-8th rounds. Most everyone can draft the superstars with their eyes closed (rounds 1-4). In those rounds, you generally take your starting RBs, starting QB and one of your starting WRs. But round 5 is where the real action starts. Oftentimes, that's when you decide which #2 WR to take. And this year there will be plenty of options from which to choose.
Many will have one or more questions surrounding them (pretty much the defining factor seperating a #1 fantasy WR from the #2's), and Santonio Holmes and Roddy White fall into this category. Holmes had a breakout year on a historically predominantly running team. Was this the exception, or is Holmes for real?
Roddy White also had a breakout year, but his team appears to be heading in the opposite direction for the forseeable future. Is he a shining light that the Falcons can build around, or was last year the exception?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
As I mentioned in the Marshall v Johnson article, one of the most telling stats for WRs that I take stock in is times targeted, the number of passes that are thrown to a particular WR. Last year Holmes had 85 targets, turning that into 52 catches for 942 yards and 8 touchdowns. And while Hines Ward remained the "go to" guy in Pittsburgh for QB Ben Roethlisberger last year, if you look closely at Fantasy Football Trader's Times Targeted Grid, you'll notice the difference in targets was minimal for many of the games that Holmes and Ward both played. Expect that to continue being the case this year, especially as Ward heads into the twilight of his career.
Roddy White, on the other hand, had 137 targets, of which he produced 83 catches for 1202 yards and 6 touchdowns. That number of targets is very impressive. But this year, it appears the Falcons will make the running game a little more of a priority, as they have started to rebuild the offensive line and brought in RB Michael Turner to help move the chains. Throw in the likelihood that the Falcons could bring in a new QB, and its certainly possible that White's numbers could have peaked last year (at least for the short term).
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
In dynasty leagues, there are a few minor differences between Holmes and White. Holmes is only 24, while White will be 27 this year. Not that big of difference but 3 years is still 3 years. Solid advantage Holmes.
Holmes is 5'11 and about 190 pounds, while White checks in at 6'0 and 208 pounds. Again, small differences to be sure, but you have to give the nod to White here as he appears to be the sturdier frame.
The singlemost glaring difference here is the quarterback for whom each plays with. Holmes is playing with an elite young quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. White will likely be playing with a rookie QB, and it could be awhile before said quarterback is able to settle in and build a rapport with his WR ala Roethlisberger to Holmes. Therefore, it's reasonable to think that White will be closing in on 30 before that happens. Bigger advantage to Holmes.
SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
As mentioned before, Holmes had almost 1000 yards, but he also did this while missing several games last year AND playing second fiddle to Hines Ward. And he may not be the second fiddle for much longer. Think Reggie Wayne when he started with the Colts and Marvin Harrison was the undisputed #1.
White, on the other hand, seemingly was the ONLY weapon the Falcons had last year. And, as noted before, the Falcons have made several moves that would indicate that they would like to feature the run more, which could mean fewer targets. But there is a possibility that if the Falcons start a rookie QB, he will "latch" on to one of his WRs, and if White is that guy (and why wouldn't he be), then perhaps he can still approach those same amount of targets. Just keep in mind that with a rookie or journeyman QB, White will be hard pressed to repeat his catch per targeted ratio from last year.
BOTTOM LINE
Its likely that both of these WRs will be available to you as your #2 or better yet, your #3 WR. And before choosing one or the other here, take a look at your league's scoring rules. In redraft leagues, I ranked these guys very close. (Look at my rankings). But I give the slightest of nods to Holmes (with one caveat) because I think he can improve his numbers more than White. I see more potential for increased targets with Holmes than I can with White, and also because of the uncertainty at QB for the Falcons.
The caveat? If the Falcons decide to start an experienced QB this year, then White could move slightly ahead of Holmes in PPR leagues. So again, keep your scoring rules in mind and monitor the Falcons QB situation when deciding which to take.
In keeper leagues, I think Holmes has a more stable future with the Steelers than White does with the Falcons and that's a big advantage in my book when judging these two. As I mentioned before, White could be closing in on 30 before the Falcons get their QB of the future in place and ready to remove the training wheels. Holmes, on the other hand, will likely get to work with a good QB for the remainder of his time in Pittsburgh, however long that may be. So a moderately healthy advantage to Holmes there.
REDRAFT EDGE: Holmes
+++++
DYNASTY EDGE: Holmes
+++++
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