25 Jan 2008
VS. 
Manning Rivers
366.84 pts. 351.38 pts.
Ht: 6'4" Wt. 6'5"
Wt: 225 lbs Wt: 228 lbs.
Looks aside, you would think Philip Rivers was Eli Manning's brother all along, as opposed to his real-life brother Peyton, because Eli and Philip have seemingly been joined at the hip for their entire respective careers. They were the first 2 qbs taken in the 2004 draft, and later traded for each other. They both then struggled for a bit early in their pro careers, and as recently as this year, there was talk that one or both might be "busts". But with strong performances throughout the 2nd half of the season that saw both men lead their teams to conference championship games, they have now solidified themselves as the "Franchise QB" for their respective clubs.
The question now becomes, which one of these qbs could be the "Franchise QB" for your fantasy team? Let's take a look.
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
Philip Rivers has an outstanding supporting cast to work with. With the acquistion of Chris Chambers this season, the Chargers have started to figure out ways to use Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates to create mismatches for Rivers to take advantage of. And lets not forget about LaDainian Tomlinson, who is still a major force running or catching the ball. However, I think the Chargers will emphasize the run at the beginning of next year to ensure Rivers has fully recovered from his ACL injury, and that will limit his potential, especially during the early portion of the year.
Eli Manning, on the other hand, has a great playmaker in Plaxico Burress, but question marks exist with the rest of the WR corps. Steve Smith and Sinorice Moss have disappointed thus far in their careers. And while TE Jeremy Shockey is still one of the most respected TEs in the game, you can't ignore the fact that he has had 800+ yards in a season only once in the past 5 seasons. But trumping those "weaknesses" and giving him a healthy edge over Rivers is that Eli has a clean bill of health heading into next year, and as such, I fully expect him to approach the same numbers that he has achieved over the past 3 years.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
In dynasty leagues, provided he recovers 100%, I give Rivers the edge here, not only because of the stronger supporting cast he will get to work with moving forward, but also because when you look at the numbers, the last two years Rivers has had similiar passing numbers (43 tds, 6540 yds), despite throwing the ball an average of 65 fewer times per season than Manning (47 tds, 6580 yds). His career completion percentage (60.8%) is a full 6 points higher than Eli (54.7%). Also, LaDainian Tomlinson will be 29 years old next year, and with that, I fully expect that in the near future, the Chargers will begin to ease his workload, and I expect the passing game to get more opportunities as a result. Even with a slight bump up to 500 attempts a year, Rivers would project out to 3500 yards and 25 tds.
Manning's main target, Plaxico Burress, will be 31 next year. Jeremy Shockey will be 28 next season, but his physical style of play combined with his injury history suggests that the end may come sooner than later. The Giants will be hard pressed to replace these playmakers, and until they do, the dynasty edge will go to Rivers.
SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
The only question with Rivers for next year seems to be his ACL, but Rivers is not a running QB, so if the 4-6 month recovery time holds true, Rivers should be good to go next season, although the Chargers will ease him back when he does return.
The main concern for Eli is the strength of his schedule that he will likely face. The NFC East division is one of the stronger divisions, with the Cowboys and Redskins also having strong, young ballclubs. Also, make no mistake about it, the Giants are becoming a run first team, and with another year of experience, its easy to see the rb corps (Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw) continuing to see their roles in the offense expanded.
Lastly, I can almost but guarantee that there will be a draft day value in Rivers, as Eli's postseason (and the ensuing hype surrounding him) could elevate him to as high as a top 6 qb in many drafts.
BOTTOM LINE
It took awhile, but both Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have finally arrived as franchise QBs. And while they will still remain a tier below the fantasy elite QBs, both Eli and Philip can and will be serviceable fantasy qbs for your team, as long as you don't have to reach to draft either. In redraft leagues, a healthy edge to Manning because of the health factor, but in dynasty leagues, a slight advantage to Rivers due to the supporting cast.
REDRAFT EDGE: Manning
+++++
DYNASTY EDGE: Rivers
+++++
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