vs. 
Jennings                       Bowe
270.00 pts.                   269.50 pts. 
Ht: 5'11"                       Ht:  6'2"
Wt: 197 lbs                   Wt: 221 lbs.    

Whereas a baseball player can hit .300, be traded and hit between .290 and .310 with pretty much any other team, this is not the case at all for football players. A player’s stats and fantasy value can change greatly depending on the offense he plays in and the supporting cast he plays with. Given this, despite Jennings’ impressive 12 touchdowns in only 13 games, Bowe probably had the more impressive season with the lowly Chiefs; but that doesn’t necessarily make him the better keeper.

Let’s begin with the similarities between Jennings and Bowe, and there are quite a few. Jennings is 24 in this his second season, Bowe is 23 having just wrapped up his rookie year. The two actually have the same birthday – Sept. 21. This season, Bowe had 70 catches for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns while Jennings had 53 catches for 920 yards and 12 touchdowns.  In TD heavy formats Jennings blew Bowe out of the water but this is high performance scoring so Bowe's additional 17 grabs pulled him even.

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS

Both young players are playing with a Pro Bowl veteran receiver – Donald Driver for the Packers with Jennings, and Tony Gonzalez at tight end with Bowe. Lastly, both receivers are playing on a team whose QB for next season is shrouded in mystery. In Kansas City, neither Damon Huard nor Brodie Croyle got the job done this year, and its anybody’s guess who will line up under center this September. In Green Bay, there’s the age old question of when will Brett Favre retire?

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS

As a keeper, Bowe is a much riskier pick than Jennings. For starters, this is Bowe’s first year in the league and the NDL trash heap is littered with plenty of players to have one good season. Jennings, on the other hand, improved on a decent rookie campaign with a second year that should have put him in the Pro Bowl over teammate Donald Driver.

SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

Bowe gets the nod this year because he did it with a mediocre quarterback and a suspect running game once Larry Johnson got hurt. Don’t expect him to do it again. When Herm Edwards and the Chiefs win, they win ugly – with a lot of running, the kind that got Larry Johnson 416 carries last year. Bowe actually benefited from the Chiefs constantly getting in the hole.  They needed to all but abandon the run in the 4th quarter this year which set the table for plenty of garbage time points.

Greg Jennings was arguably the best receiver on one of the best offenses in football for the Packers this year, but he also showed promise on a bad Packers team last year. If you project Jennings’ numbers this year over 16 games, he would have close to 1200 yards and 15 touchdowns, putting him really only behind Randy Moss as one of the top receivers in the NFL.

BOTTOM LINE

Look for Jennings to overtake Driver as the clear number one in Green Bay as soon as next season the same way Torry Holt did to Isaac Bruce 6 years ago in St. Louis, Steve Smith to Muhsin Muhammad in Carolina, and Reggie Wayne to Marvin Harrison this year.

Dwayne Bowe probably will be a solid receiver for the next several years and he certainly has the size of a prototypical #1 WR, and there are some reasons to worry about Jennings - he's missed games due to injury in both of his first two years and it will be extremely difficult to keep up a TD:reception ratio like he had this year. 

Despite those concerns, look for Greg Jennings to emerge as one of the best receiving talents in the league.  I give him a healthy edge in redraft formats (particularly if Favre returns another year) and a slight edge in dynasty formats 

REDRAFT EDGE:  Jennings
+++++
DYNASTY EDGE:  Jennings
+++++