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TRENDS, TRAPS & TOSSUPS
Welcome to Trends, Traps & Tossups - a weekly review of happenings around the NFL and Fantasy Football Trader's view of whether or not we can expect more of the same.
MINNESOTA TREAT
TREND
The Damage: 44 rec, 786 yards and two touchdowns
The Diagnosis: Our Trader Insiders saw this one coming from months away. Sidney Rice, drafted on average with pick 13.12, was my sleeper WR of the year. I felt he was a top 30 WR all along. Of course, I also thought Sage Rosenfels would be the guy throwing him the ball (meh, win some lose some).
Even though Rice is currently the 15th best fantasy receiver in PPR, his owners will be the first to tell you it's been bittersweet. His six longest receptions on the year - 63, 56, 47, 43 and 43 yards - have all been non-touchdowns. I've logged probably 15 hours watching the Vikings this year and can tell you five of those would have been scores if even a 36 year old Brett Favre had been throwing them. On the majority, Rice had defense beat by a country mile and Sid had to stop (or slow) his route.
What I find truly remarkable is how little he's been used in the redzone. His eight RZ touches are tied with Visanthe Shiancoe for fourth on the team. In his first two seasons, Rice (6'4") was stone cold money in the Red Zone. The kid is just getting started. If you think his value is too high to trade for now, you haven't seen anything yet. Dynasty leaguers, I'm talking Roddy White upside here.
PUTZBURGH
TRAP
The Damage: In the last three games, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown two touchdowns and failed to throw 200 yards twice. The leading WR in any of those games was Santonio Holmes (88 yds).
The Diagnosis: It's understandable that owners of anything Steelers passing game are getting a little antsy. Earlier in the year, Roethlisberger was still getting pressured, but able to get his fair share along with Ward, Holmes, Heath Miller and, most recently, Mike Wallace. What happened?
Nothing. Hindsight is 20/20 and I'd argue that the Steelers saw arguably their last three opponents' (Minnesota, Denver, Cincinnati) best efforts of the year or close to it. Roethlisberger has uncharacteristically missed a half dozen throws he routinely makes - three would have been for scores.
Chin up campers. Starting this weekend, the Steelers passing game draws two matchups against the Ravens (13th), Oakland (14th), Cleveland (19th) and Green Bay (6th), the Packers being the only matchup even close to spooky that remains. Help in on it's way.
PAGING STUD TE'S
The Damage: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten are collectively on pace to average 84 rec, 952 yds and 4.15 touchdowns this season.
The Diagnosis: The numbers above are good. Anybody that waited until after the 7th round in their fantasy draft would take that from their TE any day of the week. Problem is, owners of this trio weren't drafting one the other TE's. They were counting on a difference maker. Let's take it one by one and see if we can't seperate fact from fiction with these three over the last 6 weeks.
First, the schedule:
Gates: Six remaining opponents have allowed 229 TE rec. this year.
Gonzo: Six remaining opponents have allowed 209 TE rec. this year.
Witten: Six remaining opponents have allowed 205 TE rec. this year.
Edge Gates.
Second, the player's involvement:
Gates: 59 targets
Gonzo: 56 targets
Witten: 54 targets
Sliver of an edge Gates.
And finally, situational factors:
It certainly is coincidental that the Chargers, Falcons and Cowboys have all had their fair share of "issues" in the running game this year. Michael Turner struggling early in the year (and now out with a high ankle sprain), LaDainian Tomlinson growing old overnight and Barber & Co. behind a struggling O-line.
It's only my extremely subjective opinion that of the three, the Falcons are in the best position with with Snelling being serviceable and Jerious Norwood closer to returning, the Chargers next with Darren Sproles sprinkled in and last, it's Dallas with that seive of an O-Line. That problem isn't getting fixed anytime soon.
But perhaps the most damning stat I found for Witten is the number of plays these three have stayed in to pass block this year.
Gates: 13
Gonzo: 18
Witten: 46
Holy crap! The reality is that Witten is an extremely good pass blocker. In those 46 plays his man has only been responsible for 1 Romo sack, 1 Romo hit and zero Romo "pressures". Until the Cowboys solve their line problem, Witten running a pattern is a luxury they cannot afford.
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