Defensive backs are far and away the LEAST important position come draft day (I’m not counting “idiot” kickers as a position. You got a problem with that, go talk to Peyton Manning). On the real, DB's stats fluctuate greatly from year to year. A big reason for that is because interceptions are mostly fools gold when forecasting, with very little consistency from year to year. Some overall thoughts:
*Think late (If others draft DBs early, then wait to draft yours right before your kicker)
*Look for guys who post consistent tackle numbers from year to year.
*Don’t be afraid to drop your drafted guys throughout the season. There are ALWAYS viable starting defensive backs available on the waiver wire. Always...ALWAYS.
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TIER ONE: Tier one studs are in name only. Guys that you have no business drafting unless everyone else is as fantasy savvy as you and waits to draft defensive backs in the last couple rounds as well. There will likely be no value whatsoever with drafting any of these guys.
1. Eric Weddle, SD
You will notice a lot of the players I have selected are safeties. Simply put, that’s because safeties are more likely to be involved in more plays. The very position dictates they read and react more than cornerbacks, who are often locked on one particular player. Weddle leads the list of defensive backs because he is a willing tackler, as his 127 combined tackles suggests. Weddle only had one interception in 2008, but he is a safe pick, as he is not dependent on the big plays to accumulate consistent numbers.
2. Oshiomogho Atogwe, STL
The coolest sounding name this side of TJ Houshmandzadeh, Atogwe was one of the few bright spots for the St. Louis Rams last year, with a career high 85 tackles and a very respectable five interceptions. Atogwe is in the prime of his career at 28 years of age opening kickoff 2009. Poised to remain highly productive for the next few years.
3. Antoine Winfield, MIN
One of the most willing cornerback tacklers in the game, Winfield continues to put up solid numbers year in and year out. Last year he delivered 95 combined tackles along with a couple interceptions and sacks for good measure. Winfield does turn 32 before the start of the season, so he carries a bit of risk with him moving forward. However his body of work dictates his position in the top five and someone will draft him as such. That’s okay, there's better value waiting below.
4. Michael Griffin, TEN
Griffin stepped his game up in 2008, improving his numbers across the board, including seven interceptions, giving him 10 picks in his first two years. Griffin does have the versatility to play any of the defensive back positions, but free safety seems to be the best fit from a fantasy point of view, as it allows him to take advantage of his ball hawking skills. Age is an added bonus, as he just turned 24 years old.
5. Gibril Wilson, MIA
Wilson is a tackling machine, and while he may not put up big interception numbers, has shown that he is a consistent producer to warrant a top 10 ranking. Now paired with Yeremiah Bell, I don’t expect Wilson to match last year’s numbers, but his steady history shows that 100 tackles shouldn’t be asking too much out of this stud.
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TIER TWO: Tier two cats are guys that I really like, and if you are lucky, just might slip through the cracks. Granted, only one will probably slip if you are drafting defensive backs according to my guidelines, but you will know you've gotten rock solid value immediately.
6. Erik Coleman, ATL
Coleman resurfaced as a legitimate fantasy football player with the Atlanta Falcons in 2008, notching 95 combined tackles with three interceptions. Deceptively young, he will only be 27 years old next year as he starts his sixth NFL season. Coleman should be able to anchor the Falcons defensive backfield for the next few years and he can do the same for your fantasy team if he were to slip through the cracks at your draft.
7. Nick Collins, GB
Collins is a solid free safety that, like Griffin, is able to combine a respectable amount of interceptions (seven) with an acceptable amount of tackles (72 combined) that gives him enough total production to be a consistent scorer for the next few years. The Packers have two other young safeties on their roster in Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse, but both of those guys seem better suited to the strong safety position, so Collins should be safe next year. Be sure to keep an eye on this throughout the offseason.
8. Antrel Rolle, ARI
Very few lists of top position players would be fair or complete without at least one former Miami Hurricane. This former Hurricane barely cracked the top 20 defensive backs last year, but that was because he transitioned full time to the safety position. Once he got settled in after a slow start, Rolle was very productive, setting a new career high with 89 combined tackles. With an entire season at safety under his belt, I expect Rolle to be a top 10 scorer this year, with a slight increase in interceptions.
9. Brandon Meriweather, NE
Meriweather gets the nod here for his versatility and upside. He can play any of the defensive back positions in a pinch, and along with linebacker Jerod Mayo, will be the key playmakers for the Patriots defense. Meriweather had four interceptions last year, so he has a nose for the ball, and if he can improve his tackle numbers ever so slightly (remember he started last season on the bench); he should be able to rack up enough tackles to make the top 10. Excellent value should be available for Meriweather on draft day.
10. Yeremiah Bell, MIA
Bell had a breakout year for the Dolphins in 2008, posting 120 combined tackles, and only had two games where he had less than five. The exact definition of "steady" production. And as rule No. 1 goes, Bell went undrafted in many leagues, including one of my “expert” leagues last year, giving credence to my rule No. 3. Unfortunately, Bell will be turning 31 shortly, so his time at the top will be short-lived. Should still be a solid contributor to your team this year.
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Tier 3
11. Kevin Payne, CHI (Value Pick Alert)
12. Michael Lewis, SF
13. Bob Sanders, IND
14. Troy Polamalu, PIT
15. Roman Harper, NO
A cluster of guys who have produced significant fantasy numbers in the past, but may have a red flag or two that prevents them from being in the top 10. Bob Sanders is obvious, it’s his health. If he's on the field, put the women and children to bed. Polamalu also plays a very aggressive style of football. I think last year, some of his stats were “cannibalized” by the phenomenal year the Steelers linebackers had. I think this year they come back to earth a little and it will be Polamalu that benefits. Kevin Payne had a great year with the Bears, but you would like to see a bit more before slotting him among the elite. Lewis and Harper both are the beneficiaries of below average defenses, but both defenses have appeared to upgrade some this offseason. Of this group, Kevin Payne has the most upside, Sanders presents the most risk with Lewis being the safest bet.
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Tier 4
16. Josh Wilson, SEA
17. Richard Marshall, CAR (Value Pick Alert)
18. Cortland Finnegan, TEN
19. Quintin Mikell, PHI
This group features a trio of outstanding fantasy cornerbacks. Wilson and Finnegan both had great years from a fantasy standpoint, but I’m always leery of putting cornerbacks ahead of safeties. The better a cornerback becomes, the less action that comes his way. However, with this trio, that doesn’t seem likely, because each has a more than adequate peer on the other side of the field. Wilson has Marcus Trufant, Marshall has Chris Gamble and Finnegan has the entire Titans backfield. Mikell started out really strong in 2008, but he tailed off some as the season wore on. Of this group, Marshall far and away presents the most upside. He had 75 tackles last year working mostly in nickel packages, and this year he will have every opportunity to take the starting position and run with it. And best of all, he will likely be on of the guys I was talking about - available at the very end of your draft.
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Tier 5
20. DeAngelo Hall, WAS
21. Adrian Wilson, ARI
22. Chris Hope, TEN
23. Kerry Rhodes, NYJ
24. LaRon Landry, WAS (Value Pick Alert)
Now the real question marks. But it’s not fair of you to shy away from them because their upside is rich. DeAngelo Hall started off like gangbusters in Oakland, and then got cut and played out the rest of the season with the Redskins. Hall still has some untapped talent and could really thrive in Washington, especially with the acquisitions of Haynesworth and Orakpo. Wilson missed a couple games last year and still finished with 75 combined tackles. He could approach 90+ this year. Hope’s issue is that he is surrounded by studs all over his backfield. However, I think he will have more opportunities to make plays this year, and combined with Michael Griffin, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the most prolific fantasy safety tandem in 2009. I think Rhodes is in line for a big year after a couple of average seasons. With a healthier, more experienced front seven, Rhodes will have more opportunities to make the big play. And yes, I’m still driving the LaRon Landry bandwagon, despite last season’s somewhat disappointing season. This is the year Landry takes that next step and becomes a strong presence in the Redskins defense.