by John Tuvey
Affectionately known as "2V", John was brought it to do a little moonlighting from his regular gig as the Senior NFL Analyst at TheHuddle.com. For our Dynasty diehard Insiders, his 5-Part series will be introduding you to the Top 50 Keeper Rookies (with 2009 considerations)...
#1) Knowshon Moreno RB Ht: 5-11 Wt: 217 Drafted 1.12 by the Denver Broncos
Dynasty Value: What’s not to like about Moreno’s skill set? He may be a tad smaller than the prototypical NFL back and he doesn’t have blinding speed. However, he has outstanding vision, tremendous burst, and an aggressive running style that helps him succeed between the tackles. He’s also a solid receiver, an adequate—and, more importantly, willing—pass blocker, and has no durability or character issues to cause concern. The Broncos will have to really dig to find a reason not to keep him on the field all three downs, and after trading up to get him it’s unlikely they’ll be motivated to do so.
2009 Considerations: The good news is, Mike Shanahan and his revolving door backfield are no longer at work in Denver. The bad news is, Josh McDaniels’ track record also suggests multiple backs in the mix. Okay, now nothing but good news: with McDaniels calling the plays in New England, Patriots RBs consistently finished in the top 10 in fantasy points scored. And there’s no reason to think Moreno won’t get at least half of the projected 500-plus touches Broncos backs will see. Moreno’s skills all but guarantee he’ll be the first rookie off the board in redrafts, and his upside suggests he’ll go within the first four rounds.
#2) Chris “Beanie” Wells RB Ht: 6-1 Wt: 235 Drafted 1.31 by the Arizona Cardinals
Dynasty Value: A major-college back who’s big, strong, and fast but comes to the NFL with durability concerns and a lack of acumen in the passing game; sound like anyone you know? Wells brings to the table many of the same traits Adrian Peterson had coming out of Oklahoma—as well as many of the same issues. He certainly has the skill set to give Ken Whisenhunt the best back he’s worked with since Jerome Bettis’ heyday, and all that stands between Wells and the bulk of the carries in Arizona is Tim Hightower. Of course the Arizona offense is still pass-first, but once Wells consolidates the majority of the touches he’ll be in position to put up numbers that would vault him into the upper echelon of fantasy backs.
2009 Considerations: Wells may take a bit longer to get up and running in Arizona, as the league rule preventing players from participating in OTAs while their school was still in session cost him some valuable practice time this spring. However, he’s too talented to take a backseat to Hightower for long; if Wells takes over a larger share of the workload by midseason, he should easily finish 2009 as an every-week fantasy starter. And if that timetable is expedited, Wells could enjoy the same immediate impact as the similarly talented Peterson—albeit in a less run-friendly offense.
#3) Donald Brown RB Ht: 5-10 Wt: 210 Drafted 1.27 by the Indianapolis Colts
Dynasty Value: Brown enters into an intriguing situation in Indianapolis. The Colts already have Joseph Addai, a first-round pick just four years ago, but Addai has struggled to stay healthy for a full 16-game slate and has also demonstrated he’s more effective when sharing the workload. However, Addai’s presence allows the Colts to bring Brown along slowly, putting him in situations where he can succeed as a rookie while determining just how much of his collegiate success will translate to the NFL. Brown has the skills to be a complete back and the work ethic to make it in the NFL, but just how much Indy will ask of him will largely be determined by what Addai does.
2009 Considerations: Questions about Brown being a 20-carry per game back like he was in college will likely go unanswered as he plays a supporting role to Addai during his rookie campaign, but there’s no question the Colts will find work for their first-round pick. He’s a decent receiver and a willing pass-protector, so his share of the workload may come largely on third downs. Indy has had success using a two-headed back (Addai and Dominic Rhodes) in the past, but it may be optimistic expecting Brown to walk into the NFL and pick up the veteran Rhodes’ duties. Then again, with Addai coming off a down season, Brown is at minimum the handcuff in a productive fantasy backfield.
#4) LeShon McCoy RB Ht: 5-10 Wt: 198 Drafted 2.21 by the Philadelphia Eagles
Dynasty Value: The Eagles had options in the 2009 draft: they could have pursued a back whose skill set complemented that of current starter Brian Westbrook—a “Thunder” to his “Lightning”, if you will—or they could select an heir to the oft-nicked veteran. McCoy fits into the latter category, as he’s an adept receiver as well as an accomplished runner whose skill set meshes with what Philly asks from their backs. Of course, the likes of Correll Buckhalter and Lorenzo Booker have been viewed as Westbrook’s eventual replacement, and failed to live up to the billing. But McCoy appears to have all the tools to step in seamlessly if and when Westbrook can’t—be it for a game or for the rest of his career.
2009 Considerations: Westbrook’s recent ankle surgery may have expedited the Eagles’ timetable for McCoy. Back in April McCoy was considered little more than a solid handcuff to frequent injury report visitor Westbrook; with Westy’s training camp (and possibly Kickoff Weekend) availability now in question, McCoy’s fantasy value climbs. LeShon demonstrated the ability to carry a workload while at Pitt (649 touches in two years), and while his overall game could use some upgrades in ball security and pass protection there’s little doubt McCoy would be able to swim if Philly was forced to throw him into the deep end. And there’s no question the situation offers significant fantasy upside.
#5) Michael Crabtree WR Ht: 6-1 Wt: 215 Drafted 1.10 by the San Francisco 49ers
Dynasty Value: Don’t let the foot surgery that tweaked Crabtree’s draft value and has thus far limited him to individual work during the 49ers OTAs, dampen his dynasty prospects. Crabtree has already been running routes—though Niners coach Mike Singletary caught him and made him stop—and he’ll be raring to go at the start of training camp. But even if he’s not, it’s bound to be a blip on what projects to be a solid NFL career from a big, athletic playmaker whose game wasn’t reliant on foot speed anyway. After all, if Crabtree can catch 94 percent of the passes thrown his way in college, he can handle Alex Smith or Shaun Hill—or whomever the 49ers draft in the first round next year.
2009 Considerations: Rookie receivers are already a fantasy risk because most take two to three years to successfully transition to the NFL game. Add in Crabtree’s inability to participate in OTAs because of the foot surgery and there are strong indicators his first year won’t be a bonanza. On the other hand, the few wideouts that do excel as rooks tend to be on the bigger side (Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Marques Colston), so if Crabtree is healthy he’ll give whomever wins the San Francisco quarterback job a primary target they haven’t seen since… dare we say it, since Jerry Rice roamed Candlestick?
#6) Mark Sanchez QB Ht: 6-2 Wt: 227 Drafted 1.5 by the New York Jets
Dynasty Value: Sanchez parlayed 16 starts at USC into a top-five draft slot, with the Jets anointing him as their savior as they traded up to get him. The former Trojan sports a 64% career completion rate—one of the better indicators of translating college glory to NFL success—and has experience in the same pro-style offense that produced Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel, among others. With the defensive-minded Rex Ryan running the Jets Sanchez will get to keep playing small ball, which plays to his strengths as a quarterback: reading defenses and delivering an accurate ball. The Jets’ defensive mentality may keep Sanchez from becoming an elite fantasy quarterback, but he has the talent to be at least a very good one.
2009 Considerations: Sanchez will have to battle Kellen Clemens for the starting gig in New York, but the Jets didn’t trade up to draft a clipboard holder. A solid running game—including pass-catching back Leon Washington—as well as a quality receiving tight end in Dustin Keller and a decent go-to wideout in Jerricho Cotchery provide Sanchez with as much firepower as either Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan had last year. Still, even if Sanchez were to replicate Ryan’s numbers he’d still be at best a fringe fantasy starter so at this juncture there’s no compelling reason to view him as an immediate fantasy helper.
#7) Matthew Stafford QB Ht: 6-2 Wt: 225 Drafted 1.1 by the Detroit Lions
Dynasty Value: The Lions are starting over, and they’ve tabbed Stafford as the guy to lead them. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll have Calvin Johnson to throw to, and that QB guru Scott Linehan will oversee his development. He has an aggressive, gunslinger style similar to Jay Cutler, with the arm to make all the necessary throws, but the concern is that underclassmen quarterbacks don’t have a strong success rate in making the jump to the NFL. Aside from that, Stafford seems to have all the intangibles on his side—including the same Texas high school alma mater that spawned Bobby Lane, the last great Lions quarterback, 50 years ago.
2009 Considerations: On the plus side, Detroit’s hodge-podge quarterback collection produced decent fantasy numbers last year, thanks primarily to being forced to throw while playing catch-up—and having Johnson to throw to. Ideally the Lions would let Stafford sit in 2009 while Daunte Culpepper took the snaps—and the lumps—as the rebuilding process begins in Detroit. However, Stafford’s gaudy contract and Motown’s desperation for a win may push him onto the field earlier than the Lions would like. Unfortunately, you should expect something closer to David Carr or Tim Couch than Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
#8) Brandon Pettigrew TE Ht: 6-5 Wt: 263 Drafted 1.20 by the Detroit Lions
Dynasty Value: Widely regarded as the best combo (blocking/pass-catching) tight end in the 2009 draft, Pettigrew will have the opportunity to grow with classmate Matthew Stafford. He’s not only a good fit for the Detroit offense, he’ll have the luxury of playing a complementary role to Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Smith. Moreover, new Lions OC Scott Linehan has a history of productive tight ends, including Jim Kleinsasser and Jermaine Wiggins in Minnesota and Randy McMichael in Miami. Pettigrew doesn’t project to be a Tony Gonzalez-like producer at the position, but he will be a steady source of catches and red-zone touchdowns.
2009 Considerations: First-round tight ends almost always disappoint; since the turn of the century, tight ends taken in Round One have averaged an underwhelming 300 yards and two touchdowns in their first NFL season. That said, Pettigrew’s blocking acumen will keep him on the field in short-yardage and goal-line situations and Linehan’s offense should provide him with ample opportunities from either a young quarterback (Stafford) or a quarterback who knowns how to find the tight end (Daunte Culpepper). His Year One upside is something akin to the 459 and six Heath Miller posted in 2005, which would definitely put him into the mix as an every-week fantasy starter.
#9) Jeremy Maclin WR Ht: 6-0 Wt: 198 Drafted 1.19 by the Philadelphia Eagles
Dynasty Value: Maclin is Devin Hester with a more polished wide receiver skill set; his big-play and return game ability give him fantasy value while he learns how to run all the routes required by an NFL receiver. Donovan McNabb should stick around Philly for at least a couple more years, and by that time Maclin may have developed into the No. 1 receiver that—aside from the Terrell Owens experiment—the Eagles have never had. Philly’s offense has proven creative enough to get the ball into Brian Westbrook’s hands, and Maclin has all the skills to be the same type of game-breaker.
2009 Considerations: Receivers don’t usually make a splash in Year One; also working against Maclin is the fact that he played in a spread offense in college and has plenty of catch-up work to do with regards to route running. That said, we’re talking about a player who set a freshman record for combo yards, then followed that up with an even more productive campaign that ranked among the top five in NCAA history. The Hester comparison is apt, as Maclin has the ability to score special teams touchdowns while working his way into the offense; if your fantasy league includes those return scores, there should be value here from the outset.
#10) Percy Harvin WR Ht: 5-11 Wt: 192 Drafted 1.22 by the Minnesota Vikings
Dynasty Value: Harvin has mad game-breaking skills, but there are significant concerns as to how his game translates to the NFL. First, he doesn’t really have a position at the pro level; he won’t be a feature ball-carrier, and coming out of a spread offense at Florida he’s not well-versed in the full NFL array of routes. Harvin is electrifying in the open field, but he wasn’t used as a returner in college. Plus, the Vikings are a run-first offense with uncertainty at quarterback as well as questions about the ability of the offensive brain trust to come up with creative ways to get Harvin the ball. Mix in the durability concerns that have already reared their ugly head, and Harvin’s upside comes with a healthy dose of risk.
2009 Considerations: Of course, countering that risk is the potential Harvin flashed throughout his days as a Gator. The Vikings added 20-30 plays to the playbook during OTAs designed exclusively for Harvin; if Brett Favre comes in as quarterback defenses will be spread too thin to focus on Harvin working out of the slot and he’ll see a mouth-watering amount of single coverage. A number of things will need to fall into place for Harvin to have a first year worthy of fantasy consideration—but the upside is definitely there, and he’ll come with far less risk for your fantasy club than he did in Round One for the Vikings.
