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2009 F.F.T. Re-Draft Wide Receiver Rankings (Jun. 25, 2009)
Note: Fantasy Points-based on 1 point per 10 yards rushing and receiving, 6 points for every rushing and receiving touchdown. Adjust for your league scoring accordingly. Auction values based on $200 budget.
1. Larry Fitzgerald-Arizona Cardinals
Auction Value: $44
Bye Week: 4
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 5
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 5
The stats speak for themselves, 96 receptions, 1,431 yards, and 12 touchdowns a year after posting 100 receptions, 1,409 yards, and 10 touchdowns. The Cardinals offense remains intact and Fitz only turns 26 in August. I do not believe that Fitzgerald is by far the best receiver in the draft as many people do - but I do feel he is among the elite and cannot argue with him being the first receiver off the board.
(09’ Proj: 95 receptions, 1500 yards, 11 touchdowns) 216 Fantasy Points
2. Andre Johnson-Houston Texans
Auction Value: $42
Bye Week: 10
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 7
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 12
I could not argue with anybody taking Johnson as the number one receiver off the board, how can you with 115 receptions, 1,575 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Those are the numbers he put up last season and while he has yet to put up more than eight touchdowns in his six-year career, you only need to go back to 2007 when he posted eight in a mere nine games to see he is capable. The sky is the limit, especially if Matt Schaub could find a way to stay healthy an entire season.
(09’ Proj: 105 receptions, 1520 yards, 10 touchdowns) 212 Fantasy Points
3. Randy Moss-New England Patriots
Auction Value: $42
Bye Week: 8
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 1
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 17
Nobody missed Tom Brady more than Moss, posting 29 less receptions, 485 yards, and 12 less touchdowns than 2007. Luckily his 2007 numbers were out of this world so he still posted 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 69 receptions. He is now 32 but Tom Brady is back and while I cannot see another 23 touchdowns like he put up in 2007 it would not surprise me to see him put up 15+.
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1210 yards, 15 touchdowns) 211 Fantasy Points
4. Calvin Johnson-Detroit Lions
Auction Value: $40
Bye Week: 7
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 16
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 25
Larry Fitzgerald better enjoy his reign at number one because I have a feeling it will be short lived. That is not a shot at Fitz but a compliment to Johnson’s ability. I would not be surprised if he tops this list for the next five years without blinking an eye. C.J. put up 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns last season on 78 receptions despite being the only show in town with subpar quarterback play, on a team that did not win a single game. If Matthew Stafford becomes the real deal, I would not be surprised to see C.J. put up 2000 yards and 20+ touchdowns down the road, yes he is that good!
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1380 yards, 12 touchdowns) 210 Fantasy Points
5. Marques Colston-New Orleans Saints
Auction Value: $38
Bye Week: 5
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 8
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 16
This may be a headscratcher to a lot of people but we are calling our shot on this one. We predict 4,600 passing yards and 32 touchdowns for Drew Brees (and both of those could be on the low end by the way). Colston is Brees’ go-to-guy and while he will get other guys involved I expect Colston to put career marks in 2009.
(09’ Proj: 100 receptions, 1280 yards, 13 touchdowns) 206 Fantasy Points
6. Steve Smith-Carolina Panthers
Auction Value: $36
Bye Week: 4
2008 Pre-Season Ranking:
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 3
The Panthers are going to run, run, throw to Smith, it is a simple yet effective plan that keeps Smith at elite receiver level. He averaged 101.5 yards per game last season. Smith has only had double digits once in his career, 12 in 2005 but I look for defenses to key on the running game, especially in the red zone, allowing Smith a little more wiggle room this year.
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1350 yards, 10 touchdowns) 195 Fantasy Points
7. Greg Jennings-Green Bay Packers
Auction Value: $36
Bye Week: 5
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 18
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 40
Jennings proved last season that 2007 was no fluke and it does not matter who is throwing him the ball he is going to put up big numbers. Jennings is only 25, is clearly the best receiver on the Packers roster. Rodgers will look to him early and often in 2009. For the fourth consecutive season he should improve his receptions and yardage totals.
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1300 yards, 10 touchdowns) 190 Fantasy Points
8. Antonio Bryant-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Auction Value: $34
Bye Week: 5
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: None
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: None
I will admit that I made the mistake of not buying into the Bryant hype last year but 83 receptions, 1,248 yards, and 7 touchdowns later - I believe. These numbers came from a guy that had minimal talent around him and was not even in the NFL in 2007. His problem has never been lack of talent, rather keeping his attitude in check. It appears as though he has his head on straight and while he is an easy guy to throw onto the bust pile I think he surprises again this season.
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1250 yards, 10 touchdowns) 185 Fantasy Points
9. Vincent Jackson-San Diego Chargers
Auction Value: $34
Bye Week: 5
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 42
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 32
He has seen his receptions and yardage totals go up in each year of his career, he is only 26, he is 6’5” and he has earned the respect of Philip Rivers. The Chargers will continue to throw the ball this season and Jackson will surprise many people. He offers a great value as he can be had a lot lower than this in most drafts.
(09’ Proj: 70 receptions, 1250 yards, 9 touchdowns) 179 Fantasy Points
10. Roddy White-Atlanta Falcons
Auction Value: $34
Bye Week: 4
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 21
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 75
We received a lot of flack for our love of Rowdy Roddy last season but our prediction of 90 rec, 1,350 yards, and 9 touchdowns was right on the money as White put up 88 receptions for 1382 yards, and 7 touchdowns. The Falcons will again have a run first mentality and they have added Tony Gonzalez but the continuing progression of Matt Ryan makes White a top 10 pick with room to grow.
(09’ Proj: 88 receptions, 1300 yards, 8 touchdowns) 178 Fantasy Points
11. Dwayne Bowe-Kansas City Chiefs
Auction Value: $32
Bye Week: 8
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 20
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 66
There are a number of people predicting a breakout season from Bowe, thanks in part to the addition of Matt Cassell at quarterback and while I expect big things from him, I am a little leery. Cassell is still an unproven commodity and I do not think the loss of Tony Gonzalez can be underestimated. Unless the running game is clicking along, (read: Mark Bradley and Bobby Engram step up) there is a good chance Bowe will be facing double teams all season. I love the kid's talent and I still expect big things. Just saying I can see a scenario where his numbers are much lower than predicted numbers below.
(09’ Proj: 85 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 touchdowns) 174 Fantasy Points
12. Reggie Wayne-Indianapolis Colts
Auction Value: $30
Bye Week: 6
2008 Pre-Season Ranking: 2
2007 Pre-Season Ranking: 6
Wayne no longer has Marvin Harrison to take the pressure off him but he still has Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and what should be an improved running game. He will turn 31 in November but Peyton Manning’s go-to-guy is still as consistent as they come.
(09’ Proj: 90 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 touchdowns) 174 Fantasy Points
