by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: Mark Campbell (TE), Martin Gramatica (K), Aaron Stecker (RB)
Gains: D’Juan Woods (WR), Paris Warren (WR), Heath Evans (FB)
Losses: Deuce McAllister (RB), David Patten (WR), Mike Karney (FB)
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
None
Depth Chart: (updated 7/5/09)
QB-Drew Brees, Joey Harrington, Mark Brunell
RB-Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mike Bell, Lynell Hamilton, P.J. Hill (rc),
Herb Donaldson (rc)
FB-Heath Evans, Darian Barnes, Olaniyi Sobomehin
WR1-Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Adrian Arrington, Skyler Green, D’Juan Woods,
Rod Harper (rc)
WR2-Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Paris Warren, Courtney Roby, Matt Simon (rc)
TE- Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Darnell Dinkins, Dan Campbell, Buck Ortega
K-Garrett Hartley
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
|
Sept. 13
|
Detroit
|
1:00
|
|
Sept. 20
|
at Philadelphia
|
1:00
|
|
Sept. 27
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at Buffalo
|
4:05
|
|
Oct. 4
|
NY Jets
|
4:05
|
|
Oct. 11
|
BYE
|
|
|
Oct. 18
|
NY Giants
|
1:00
|
|
Oct. 25
|
at Miami
|
4:15
|
|
Nov. 2
|
Atlanta
|
8:30
|
|
Nov. 8
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Carolina
|
4:05
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Nov. 15
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at St. Louis
|
1:00
|
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Nov. 22
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at Tampa Bay
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1:00
|
|
Nov. 30
|
New England
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8:30
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|
Dec. 6
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at Washington
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1:00
|
|
Dec. 13
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at Atlanta
|
1:00
|
|
Dec. 19
|
Dallas
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8:20
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|
Dec. 27
|
Tampa Bay
|
1:00
|
|
Jan. 3
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at Carolina
|
1:00
|
Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-8th (141-113)
Passing-6th-207.2 yards allowed per game
Rushing-22nd-117.2 yards allowed per game
2008 Target Percentages: (See Insider Central for detailed week by week)
| 2008 New Orleans Saints Percentages |
| Total Passes |
636 |
62% |
|
|
|
|
| Total Rushes |
398 |
38% |
|
|
|
|
| Total Plays |
1034 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target |
% |
|
Rec |
Yrds |
TD |
| Lance Moore |
119 |
19% |
|
79 |
928 |
10 |
| Marques Colston |
88 |
14% |
|
47 |
760 |
5 |
| Reggie Bush |
73 |
11% |
|
52 |
440 |
4 |
| Jeremy Shockey |
72 |
11% |
|
50 |
483 |
0 |
| Billy Miller |
63 |
10% |
|
45 |
579 |
1 |
| Devery Henderson |
57 |
9% |
|
32 |
793 |
3 |
| Pierre Thomas |
41 |
6% |
|
31 |
284 |
3 |
| Deuce McAllister |
23 |
4% |
|
18 |
128 |
1 |
| David Patten |
20 |
3% |
|
11 |
162 |
1 |
| Robert Meachem |
20 |
3% |
|
12 |
289 |
3 |
| Mark Campbell |
16 |
3% |
|
12 |
121 |
2 |
| Aaron Stecker |
12 |
2% |
|
9 |
52 |
1 |
| Mike Karney |
12 |
2% |
|
9 |
18 |
0 |
| Thrown Away |
10 |
2% |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Olaniyi Sobomehin |
3 |
0% |
|
2 |
8 |
0 |
| Buck Ortega |
3 |
0% |
|
1 |
3 |
0 |
| Mike Bell |
2 |
0% |
|
1 |
14 |
0 |
| Sean Ryan |
2 |
0% |
|
2 |
7 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Totals |
636 |
100% |
|
413 |
5069 |
34 |
News and notes:
The Saints remain loaded on offense and it all starts with Drew Brees, who is likely to be the first quarterback off the board in drafts this season. Luckily, for the Saints Brees is a rock because there is huge drop off if, he ever is injured; enter Joey Harrington or Mark Brunell. I would still not hesitate to pick up whoever is under center simply because of the talent level but neither is anywhere near Brees’s class.
At running back, P.T. no longer stands for part time, as Pierre Thomas is now the unchallenged feature back who reportedly put on 10 pounds of bulk up in the off-season to show he can shoulder the load. He has his coaches confidence, when asked if the Saints felt any urgency to get another running back Sean Payton said “Not right now, I know a lot has been written about that but I think the guy we’re looking for may already be in the building.” Reggie Bush will get some carries but his value remains in the passing game. Thomas will not get enough carries to put up Michael Turner type of numbers but I believe he could easily be a top ten, but the time the season ends. If you are looking for a deep sleeper Mike Bell could be your guy as he should get a few carries a game and could very well be the feature back should Thomas get injured. An even deeper sleeper is Lynell Hamilton but I think he is a long shot to overtake Bell at this time. The Saints could still bring in another veteran such as Edgerrin James, which would drop Bell and Hamilton down a notch. T
he receiving core returns intact with Marques Colston leading the way, I expect big things out of him this season, and top five is not out of the question. On the other side, do not sleep on Lance Moore who posted 10 touchdowns last season. Yes Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and Adrian Arrington are all in the mix, but none of them are ready to take over Moore’s role so I fully expect similar numbers to last season although matching 10 touchdowns is not likely. His shoulder bears watching, as he likely will not be ready at the start of camp, but it is not expected to be a problem. The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Meachem is having a good-offseason and did well at the OTA sessions. “The old me is back," said Meachem who also said he dropped from 222 pounds down to 213. I look for Devery Henderson to continue to just be a fly route receiver who catches a long pass here and there which means Meachem and Arrington will battle for the third receiver which, on this team, has some fantasy value. This is a battle to watch closely in camp and in the pre-season. Meachem is more talented but Arrington very well may be a better overall receiver.
Jeremy Shockey had a disappointing first season in New Orleans but he should be more involved in the offense this season but with so much talent and only one football to go around I would not look for Shockey to put up big numbers but he could still be a borderline number one. Billy Miller, newly acquired Darnell Dinkins, and even Dan Campbell could all steal some yards and a touchdown or two.
Garrett Hartley could be a sleeper kicker simply based on the number of points the Saints will score. Did I just call a kicker a sleeper? Please forgive me.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Base defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Jonathan Vilma (132), Roman Harper (89), Scott Shanle (87)
Sacks: Bobby McCray (6), Sedrick Ellis (4), Will Smith, Charles Grant and Jeff Charleston (3)
Interceptions: Jason David (5), Scott Fujita, Kevin Kaesviharn and Usama Young (2)
Ascending: Malcolm Jenkins. The pickings are few from a fantasy perspective.
Descending: Scott Shanle. Stopgap solution until better talent becomes available.
Notes:
The Saints are an offensive-minded football team and unfortunately it shows from a fantasy aspect as well. The linebackers are led by Jon Vilma, who is very solid, and the best fantasy option hands down on the Saints. Last year Vilma had 132 combined tackles, and I don’t expect anything different this year. After that, it gets a little tricky. Scott Fujita nabbed 81 combined tackles in 14 games last year, which was par for the course for Fujita. However, from a fantasy perspective, Fujita only warrants consideration in deeper leagues as his upside is about tapped out. The other linebacker spot is up for grabs, but there are those who believe Jo-Lunn Dunbar could eventually work his way into the rotation over Scott Shanle, but neither is worth worrying about until after the draft.
At first glance, the defensive line doesn’t look that impressive, as the careers of both defensive linemen Charles Grant and Will Smith, have been marked by inconsistency, not to mention the four game suspensions that they will serve to start the 2009 season. However, they could provide value as waiver wire pickups as they benefit from new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams attacking defense. Sedrick Ellis is going to be an All-Pro someday, but his fantasy value is minimal.
On the defensive back front, Roman Harper is the only name to know. Last year, Harper had 89 combined tackles, and this year he could easily eclipse triple digits. The other safety position will likely be Darren Sharper, but Sharper is at the end of his career and shouldn’t be counted on for fantasy purposes. The Saints cornerbacks aren’t likely to be a big fantasy factor in 2009, but keep your eye on rookie Malcolm Jenkins and Tracy Porter. Both youngsters should see increased playing time as the year goes on, and could potentially be nice midseason additions.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
Again another good o-line in a division that's stocked. LT Jammal Brown is a prototype player. LG Carl Nicks stole the LG job last year and played well enough to keep it for a while. He's raw though, and needs to get coached up. C Jonathan Goodwin is an adequate replacement for Jeff Faine and I believe he can still improve as well. RG Jahri Evans and RT John Stinchcomb form one of the better right sides in football. They do have a little bit of depth if someone gets injured.
Position-by-position grades with pass/run blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P.)
by Stan Feldman
Underrated: RB Pierre Thomas. Conventional wisdom would find it hard to convince fantasy owners that Thomas will eclipse teammate Reggie Bush as the focal point of the Saints’ running game given the amount of time and money invested in Bush, but the respective ADP’s of the two backs show that fantasy owners are getting the picture. Though Thomas is going almost a round higher than Bush, he must still be considered underrated given the Saints’ prolific offense. History also indicates that head coach Sean Payton will use Thomas enough to settle owners’ fears about a committee situation; in 2006, Payton orchestrated a big year from running back Deuce McAllister while playing next to Bush, and owners should expect a similar split this season.
Overrated: WR Lance Moore. Moore will likely be the odd man out in a crowded receiving corps, and his ADP, which places him alongside receiver Santonio Holmes as well as sleeper running backs Chris Wells and Willie Parker, is simply too high given the Saints’ depth chart. While there are plenty of passes to go around in New Orleans under Sean Payton, many of them will go to running back Reggie Bush and tight end Jeremy Shockey. It’s worth noting that the Saints have never produced a second bona fide receiving option outside of Marques Colston (or Moore, when Colston went down last season).
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SAINTS BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
Q: So far in mock drafts, only 10 slots seperate Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush from their average draft positions. Thomas at 30th overall and Bush at 40th. Which will outperform the other?
A: Let's keep in mind we're splitting hairs here between very good and "V"ery good. These guys are polar opposites of skillset and each serves his own purpose in the Saints offensive machine.
Regarding Reggie Bush, we all realize by now that he can't run a lick between the tackles. But man is he special in space. We need to look no further than Reggie's first six weeks of 2008 to see what's "possible": 9, 9, 14, 8, 9 and 6 targets from Mr. Brees (hauling in 41 of them for 3 scores). He was on pace for 109 receptions and 8 scores. Let me repeat that. A running...back was on pace for 109 catches and 8 scores, not factoriing in a single rushing attempt.
And on the flip side, we have a Pierre Thomas whose four December starts late in the year, placed him among fantasy's truly elite for that brief period (300 rushing and 3 TD's with 112 receiving and 3 TD's).
So who's ahead of the line in 2009? I believe the mock drafters have it right. I'd rather have Thomas with the 30th pick than Reggie with the 40th and there's two main reasons why. First, many tend to forget that Reggie's early season receiving bonanza was staggered perfectly opposite Marques Colston's week 1 injury (who returned in week 7 following Bush's own multi-game exit to injury in week 6). When the Saints have all hands on deck, I don't think there's enough targets to feed Reggie that consistently for the duration. Second:
...those triple digit rushing attempts that are being left on the table by Deuce McAllister are huge. Take a look at the yds per carry and if you think Pierre and Reggie will be splitting those down the middle - you're kidding yourself.