Every year in fantasy football, there are always a few NFL players who seize the opportunity afforded them and vault themselves to prominence. Of course, for every one of those, there are probably three “flash in the pan” types that have one good week and are never heard from again...
Grant and Thomas are two examples of guys who rewarded those owners prescient (and lucky) enough to pluck them off the waiver wire when they were showing signs of having a breakout season (Grant in 2007 and Thomas last year.)
Grant was a hotly coveted player at last year’s drafts, coming off a performance that included five 100-plus yard rushing games over his last ten contests. However, he boycotted training camp while negotiating a new deal and promptly hurt himself when he did arrive. That hamstring injury lingered for much of the year and, though he eventually rushed for 1,203 yards, it took him 312 attempts to get there.
Conversely, almost nothing was expected of Thomas and he was largely ignored at last summer’s fantasy drafts. It took a Reggie Bush injury and the decline of Deuce McAllister to give him his shot, but he certainly made the most of it. He finished the year with nine total
touchdowns in his final seven games.
Despite their past success, neither of them is absolutely guaranteed a full workload as they will both face certain roadblocks to future glory.
So which one should you consider for your squad?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS:
One would have to hope that Grant learned a valuable lesson about conditioning last year and will report to camp in shape this time around. The good news for him, though, is despite his disappointing results last season, Green Bay did not take a running back at April’s draft (though they did take fullback Quinn Johnson in the fifth round in an effort to obtain better blocking at the point of attack). This means that the Packers are content to let him continue as the starter with Brandon Jackson spelling him. There have been rumors that Jackson will be given a larger share of the carries, but those are unsubstantiated and he has been less than impressive when he has had his opportunities. For now, Grant should be safe and can be drafted as a fantasy RB2.
Thomas may not have as defined a role as Grant, but he has less of a chance of losing his.
Obviously, the running game is a lesser priority in New Orleans (the Saints rushed only 398 times last season, the seventh fewest in the NFL), but when they do decide to pound the
rock, Thomas is the most likely to get the call. Reggie Bush is still in the backfield, of course, but he does most of his damage by receiving short passes in space and making would be tacklers miss. He has also had serious problems staying healthy as has missed ten games over the past two seasons. The fact that the Saints passed on taking Chris Wells means that they have confidence in Thomas, so you should too. He’s a good RB2 that you won’t have to draft until the third round.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS:
Grant has only played two full seasons despite the fact that he’ll be turning 27 in December.
That’s good news for Dynasty owners because he has much less tread on his tires than many other running backs who are at a similar point in their careers. Also, the weather in Green Bay dictates that the Packers will continue to do plenty of running during the latter half of the season while playing at home. His downside is that he is hardly ever involved in the passing game and tends to be inconsistent (he rushed for only 20 yards in two games last season, once against the hapless Lions). He’ll probably never break into the upper echelon of fantasy running backs.
Thomas will turn 25 during the season and is rarely overused, so he should have quite a few years left in him. However, the very aspect that will help extend his career mitigates his fantasy value. As long as Drew Brees is around and healthy, the Saints will continue to
focus the main part of their attack through the air. No matter how good Thomas ends up being, he may never reach his true potential playing for New Orleans. He will be most valuable in leagues that weigh touchdowns heavily.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Too many fantasy owners get hung up on finding two stud running backs to pair together.
Oftentimes, they neglect other areas of their roster while pursuing this goal. Either Grant or Thomas should, at times this season, produce like a fantasy RB1, so you ought to keep
that in mind while rough drafting your cheatsheets.
In the long term, though, you have to like the lack of competition for Thomas’ job as the better situation. He’ll be solid though likely not spectacular, his consistency will make him more valuable than Grant over the long haul.
REDRAFT EDGE: Grant
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Thomas
+++++
Like This? Thread The Needle Archives.