by John Tuvey
Senior NFL Analyst: The Huddle
#11) Shonn Green RB Ht: 5-11 Wt: 227 Drafted 3.1 by the New York Jets
Dynasty Value: Thanks to a year at prep school and another at a community college to get his grades up, Green is a bit older than your typical rookie; however, he comes to the NFL with relatively low mileage after just one season as a college starter. Widely considered the best “big back” in the class of 2009, Green may not have the speed to get to the corner in the pros like he did in the Big 10. But he’s a powerful runner between the tackles and should have no problems filling the role of the Jets’ inside runner—an ideal complement given that they already have Leon Washington handling third down duties.
2009 Considerations: At worst, Green gives the Jets insurance should Thomas Jones start squawking about his contract again. And there are advantages to letting your backfield learn together, so once Mark Sanchez takes over as the Jets’ quarterback you can expect Green to be lined up behind him taking handoffs. So long as Jones and Washington remain in the picture, Green’s immediate fantasy impact will be negligible. But should the aging Jones hold out, get hurt, or show signs of slowing, the Jets won’t hesitate to hasten the future. Rex Ryan absolutely loves Green, and he’s already talked about getting him fourth quarter carries, so that future may be even closer than you might think.
#12) Hakeem Nicks WR Ht: 6-1 Wt: 212 Drafted 1.29 by the New York Giants
Dynasty Value: The Giants have vacancies to fill in their receiving corps and they’re hopeful Nicks can provide them with a steady, possession-receiver presence. He doesn’t have the blazing speed to threaten down the field, but Nicks has good size and proved to be plenty productive in college. His upside in the NFL is as an Anquan Boldin or Jerricho Cotchery type of big receiver, and the downside—a Muhsin Muhammad-type possession guy—isn’t that bad. That the Giants are predominantly a running team doesn’t help, but there are certainly worse situations Nicks could have found himself in on Draft Day.
2009 Considerations: Nicks and fellow first-year player Ramses Barden will be looking to step immediately into a lineup that lost both Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer from a year ago. Rookie receivers rarely make a splash, but those that do tend to be the bigger guys (like Boldin, for example), and Nicks could easily emerge as a favored target for Eli Manning; after all, none of the current cast of characters has staked a claim to that role. His greatest value will come in PPR leagues, but Nicks will have to establish himself as a go-to guy in the red zone before appearing on the radar in most other fantasy scoring systems.
#13) Andre Brown RB Ht: 6-0 Wt: 224 Drafted 4.29 by the New York Giants
Dynasty Value: Brown is bigger than your typical pass-catching back, but he caught 70 balls in college and initially at least will likely make his NFL hay as a receiver. Not that Brown can’t be a full-time feature back, but an injury history at North Carolina limited him to just 523 career carries and suggest that he’ll be most effective in the pros with a limited number of touches. Given that he’s a solid inside runner in addition to his pass-catching acumen, some of those limited touches could come in short yardage/goal line situations. In other words, Brown is a relatively complete back who needs to prove he can stay on the field to live up to his potential.
2009 Considerations: With Derrick Ward now in Tampa, Brown should find himself battling Ahmad Bradshaw for touches in the Giants’ backfield committee. And with Brandon Jacobs having missed eight games over the past two seasons, that secondary role could quickly turn into a primary one. Brown hasn’t established himself as a full-fledged member of the Giants’ backfield just yet, but with a strong training camp (or a Jacobs injury) he could carve out a niche in one of the better running games in the NFL. He’ not even a handcuff to Jacobs yet, but he’s certainly a guy worth watching in the preseason.
#14) Brian Robiskie WR Ht: 6-3 Wt: 209 Drafted 2.4 by the Cleveland Browns
Dynasty Value: Robiskie certainly has the pedigree of an NFL receiver, with good size and decent speed as well as the added bonus of having been raised in the league; his father is a long-time NFL coach. So it’s hardly a shock that he enters the professional ranks as the most polished route-runner coming out of college. While Robiskie isn’t being projected as a go-to receiver type, his game—mental and physical—should yield a lengthy career as a solid but unsexy possession type in the same vein as Bobby Engram. And if Brady Quinn develops, Robiskie’s upside is something closer to T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
2009 Considerations: It looks as if Braylon Edwards is going to stick around in Cleveland, but Robiskie is most definitely on the short list of secondary options in the Browns’ passing game. There are plenty of questions about his situation—Who’ll be the quarterback? Will Eric Mangini remain focused on the running game? How will the weather impact Cleveland’s passing game? Can Robiskie outduel David Patten, Mike Furrey, and Josh Cribbs for looks?—but there is also a great deal of opportunity. Then again, even if Robiskie does emerge as the Browns’ No. 2, the fantasy value that position holds is relatively minimal.
#15) Josh Freeman QB Ht: 6-6 Wt: 248 Drafted 1.17 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dynasty Value: Freeman has all the physical traits scouts drool over in a quarterback—size, arm strength, athleticism—but it never quite all came together for him in college. An added bonus in Tampa is the presence of Raheem Morris, who has known Freeman since their time together at Kansas State and hand-picked him to be the face of the new regime. The comparisons to Daunte Culpepper and Ben Roethlisberger hold up physically, but Freeman has plenty of work to do on his mechanics, footwork, and decision-making to put up the kind of numbers either Culpepper or Roethlisberger have. In short, Freeman is a work in progress, with plenty of upside—but no guarantees he’ll get there.
2009 Considerations: It’s difficult to project a quarterback who wasn’t even among the top five most productive passers in his own conference to jump to the NFL and make an immediate impact. Freeman’s competition for the starting gig in Tampa Bay is hardly knee-shaking, but just because he could beat out Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich doesn’t mean you’ll want to suffer through his growing pains this season. In a best-case scenario Freeman will be put in a situation similar to Matt Ryan last year, with a good running game and decent defense to prop him up. And if you’ll recall, even then Ryan’s numbers were borderline worthy of fantasy consideration.
#16) Glen Coffee RB Ht: 6-0 Wt: 209 Drafted 3.10 by the San Francisco 49ers
Dynasty Value: Coffee might have been better off sticking around Alabama for another year, but after matching Shaun Alexander’s single-season rushing record he opted for the pros. With the 49ers transitioning to a run-first team under Mike Singletary, there’s a spot open for a handful of carries to spell Frank Gore—as well as handcuff duties should Gore go down with an injury. Coffee has the inside track on both of those opportunities, as well as the size and ability to run inside that might also earn him some goal line carries.
2009 Considerations: Make no mistake, Gore is still the workhorse in San Francisco. But in today’s NFL, if you don’t want to burn out your feature back you need to have a Plan B to give carries to—and that’s exactly why the Niners spent a third-round pick on Coffee. Since the 49ers aren’t going to take Gore off the field on third downs, one logical place for Coffee to pick up touches would be in short yardage… and, potentially, goal line situations. Coffee’s immediate value is as Gore insurance, but there is certainly upside in the possibility of goal line work as well.
#17) Austin Collie WR Ht: 6-1 Wt: 200 Drafted 4.27 by the Indianapolis Colts
Dynasty Value: A wide receiver on the Colts; what’s not to like? Collie comes into the league at a slightly advanced age thanks to two years spent on a Mormon mission, but he also enters with polished route-running skills that could quickly endear him to Peyton Manning. Collie also hits the Colts at an opportune moment, with Marvin Harrison gone and no real third receiver set to emerge. Even if Collie takes a back seat to Roy Hall or Pierre Garcon as a rookie, his size and skills should get him on the field in multiple receiver sets right away, and he has the potential to play himself into a Brandon Stokley-type role in the Indy slot.
2009 Considerations: Best-case, Collie is the Colts’ third receiver this year—and we all remember what Stokley did in that role just a few years back, correct? A far more likely scenario has Collie working his way into the regular rotation midway through the season, where with defenses focused on Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark he’ll carve out some respectable rookie numbers. There aren’t many situations where a No. 3 receiver is a fantasy helper, but a quality route-runner playing out of the slot with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball certainly qualifies as one of those rare occurances.
#18) Chase Coffman TE Ht: 6-6 Wt: 244 Drafted 3.34 by the Cincinnati Bengals
Dynasty Value: Coffman is a pass-catching tight end, as evidenced by his 90 catches as a senior at Missouri. To play an NFL version of the position, however, he’ll have to do some things not required of him in college—including basics like blocking and playing out of a three point stance. His lineage (father Paul was a longtime NFL tight end) suggests he’ll be able to pick up on those nuances, and there are plenty of formations in which he’ll be operating from a more familiar position such as the slot or in motion. The Bengals have gone years without producing a tight end fantasy folks would pay attention to, but the combination of a higher draft pick and Coffman’s productivity indicates he could be the guy to break that dry spell.
2009 Considerations: Coffman’s overall game requires plenty of work before it’s NFL-ready. That said, he’s as polished a pass-catcher as you’ll find at the position and the Bengals have plenty of need for a possession-type receiver to fill the void left by T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s departure. A little creativity could put Coffman in situations designed for him to succeed as he plays a hybrid tight end role similar to that of Dallas Clark in Indy or Dustin Keller in New York. You won’t likely have to spend a pick on Coffman in a redraft league, but he’s a number worth keeping on speed dial.
#19) Jarrett Dillard WR Ht: 5-10 Wt: 191 Drafted 5.8 by the Jacksonville Jaguars
Dynasty Value: The second of three wide receivers the Jaguars selected on draft day in hopes of shoring up a glaring team weakness, Dillard sports a resume that belies his fifth-round status. The NCAA career leader in touchdown receptions has been impressive enough in OTAs that the Jags dealt Dennis Northcutt to the Lions, opening up space in the receiver rotation. Torry Holt and Mike Walker are the likely starters, but Dillard is perfectly suited to work out of the slot—where his smallish stature won’t work against him. With excellent hands and the athleticism to make plays after the catch, Dillard is bound to quickly become one of David Garrard’s favorite targets.
2009 Considerations: Despite his resume and impressive spring, Dillard is still the third receiver on a run-first team. In other words, everything could fall into place for him and he’d still have a tough time producing numbers worthy of a spot on your fantasy roster. However, there’s no question Dillard knows how to find the end zone; plus, working out of the slot he’ll avoid press coverage and find himself matching up with opposing nickel and dime backs. That’s a favorable matchup, one that—sans any other dominant red-zone threat—Garrard may find himself going back to more and more frequently.
#20) Rashad Jennings RB Ht: 6-1 Wt: 231 Drafted 7.41 by the Jacksonville Jaguars
Dynasty Value: Jennings lasted much later in the draft than anticipated; after a strong showing at the Shrine Game there was talk he could sneak into the first day of the proceedings. Ultimately the Jaguars tabbed him to join a backfield that lost Fred Taylor in the offseason. Jennings is little threat to Maurice Jones-Drew’s role as feature back, but his size and ability to withstand a pounding would certainly help ease MoJo’s burden if he were to take a few carries off his plate. If Greg Jones isn’t all the way back from his knee injury, expect Jennings to move into a short-yardage role that may cost MoJo a few touches but would go a long way towards keeping him fresh for the increased workload he’ll be getting.
2009 Considerations: It’s easy to just put Taylor’s carries on MoJo’s plate and call it a day, but the Jaguars are too smart for that; they know that Jones-Drew’s size and running style would be better served by giving 150 or so touches to another back or backs. Jones would be first in line for that workload, but if his knee continues to bother him or the Jaguars need him more at fullback than feature back Jennings could be the guy taking a half-dozen carries a game off of MoJo’s plate. If those carries come in short-yardage (and, more specifically, goal line) situations, Jennings would provide some sneaky fantasy value in his first NFL season.