I don’t know about you, but every yearly fantasy draft I participate in always sees me flirting with the idea of making either Frank Gore or Ronnie Brown a high pick (depending on league setup and size), but, in the end, I let someone else have them...
I’ve spoken to many fantasy players and it turns out I’m not alone in having reservations about the two of them. It’s not that they aren’t very good running backs (they are) or that you wouldn’t be ecstatic to have them fall to you after a certain spot in your draft (you would.). It’s simply that they never seem to fully deliver on their promise consistently.
For part of the 2007 season, Brown made owners who selected him look extremely smart by tearing up the league until he tore something else prior to halfway point: His anterior cruciate ligament. Not his fault, of course, but that was of little consolation to his owners. He recovered well enough last year, posting good (but not great) numbers in the form of 916 yards rushing and 10 overall touchdowns.
Gore hasn’t been knocked out of any season with a major injury, but he always seems to be hobbled and playing through nagging aches and pains that affect his production. In the two years following his breakout 2006 performance, his rushing attempts, rushing yardage and reception totals have all declined. While he did continue his streak of breaking the 1,000 yard mark last season, Gore failed once more to break into the double digits in terms of touchdowns (is it too obvious to state that feat is an important consideration when choosing your fantasy RB1?)
Would/should you take the gamble on either one, this year or in the future?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
Miami’s offense made a huge leap in the rankings from 28th overall in 2007 to 12th last year and Brown definitely benefitted from having other playmakers around him. Players like Chad Pennington, Ted Ginn Jr. and Davonne Bess will all be back, so the table should be set for Brown to at least match last season’s output. Something to remember as well is that Brown is playing for a new contract this year. That extra motivation could push him to force the Dolphins to give him gain an even more substantial portion of the carries from Ricky Williams. If he is still around in the late third round, grab him and be confident that you have a great RB2.
The departure of Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz is the best thing that could have happened to Gore and his owners this season. The former head coach of the Rams never utilized him properly and kept trying to turn the 49ers into a pass-first team, something that didn’t play to their strengths. New OC Jimmy Raye (along with old school head coach Mike Singletary) want to make Gore a significant part of the offense, so expect to see his rushing attempts and receptions rise back up to their previous levels. The additions of rookie stud receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Glen Coffee will help ease the pressure on Gore and will make him more productive by their contributions. If there was ever a year to take him with a late first round/early second pick, this is it.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
A lot of Brown’s future success will depend on the steps the Dolphins take in the next couple of years. If both the passing game and the defense continue to improve, then he’ll not only be able to operate with less pressure, but also get more opportunities to run if Miami is in a position to kill the clock late in games. One thing to watch out for, though, is the eventual transition from Chad Pennington to Chad Henne at the quarterback position. The whole offense, Brown included, is likely to stumble a bit until the new starter gets acclimated.
Gore’s added workload will pay dividends in the short term, but you have to be concerned about his durability. Those nagging injuries will take their toll and it’s hard to envision him being a 300 carry running back more than once. The best scenario for him would be a committee situation to keep him fresh. You need to see how San Francisco manages him this season before deciding on his future prospects.
BOTTOM LINE
Both of these guys would make a fine fantasy RB2. As for myself, I would have trouble counting on either one as an RB1, though.
Brown will have Ricky Williams backing him up for probably the next couple of years and, while that will keep him fresh, it should cut into his workload just enough to keep him from ever being a Top 15 running back. The commitment that the 49ers have to Gore makes him the more attractive long term pick (but only if he can stay healthy.)
REDRAFT EDGE: Gore
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KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Gore
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