Another year, another “passing the torch” scenario. On one side, you have the one of the kings of the wide receiver position, someone who worked extremely hard to get to this point, and on the other side, a young up and comer who wants to be at the top of the food chain. Will the old lion give way to the young pup? Let’s take a look at the particulars...
Reggie Wayne came into last season as a top-three wide receiver, and he produced solid numbers, with 82 catches for 1145 yards and 6 touchdowns. Good numbers to be sure, but they were down from his previous season totals of 104 catches, 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. So from that perspective, Wayne had a “down” year and did not turn in value for the draft position he was taken.
Royal, meanwhile, came into the league last year almost as an afterthought. Brought in for his excellent return skills, Royal was passed over in almost all but the deepest fantasy leagues. Royal promptly went out and almost doubled his highest receiving output in college by catching 91 passes for 980 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Which brings us to this year and beyond. Will this be the season that Royal passes Wayne on the WR hierarchy? Or will Wayne show this young gun he still has work to do if he wants to be mentioned in the same article as him?
Let’s break it down.
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
It should be business as usual this upcoming year for Reggie Wayne. Yes, Marvin Harrison is gone, but let’s be real… Harrison’s been MIA in body, if not spirit, for the past couple seasons. This has been the Reggie Wayne show and there is no reason why that shouldn’t continue in 2009. Wayne still has a great supporting cast, with Peyton Manning throwing him the rock and a tight end that commands respect in Dallas Clark. Anthony Gonzales should also continue to grow into the No. 2 wide receiver role for the Colts. Reggie Wayne may not be one of the top three wide receivers taken this year, but he won’t last much longer than that and he’ll perform yet again this year.
On the flip side, Eddie Royal has several “little” questions lingering around him as he enters 2009. First, new coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Jay Cutler are already divided. That’s never good. But provided that McDaniels and Cutler can mend that divide, Cutler and Royal can continue to build chemistry this year, which is especially important for Royal because he is still developing as a wide receiver. At Virginia Tech, he was never a focal point of the offense, and so he didn’t get many opportunities to fine tune his skills. As a rookie last year, Royal showed that he is a willing, hard worker with underrated grit in the short passing game (which I think will be more emphasized in 2009), and while Marshall was/is Cutler’s “big play” guy, Royal, with a little more refinement, could easily become Cutler’s “go-to” guy.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
The big difference here is age. Reggie Wayne will be 30 years old come opening weekend of the 2009 season. Royal will only be 23 years old this year. Monster advantage to Royal, right? Yes, but its not as clear as you think.
First, I think it depends on your league setup. If you play in keeper leagues which feature a 2-3 year time limit on keepers, than I think you would be better off with Reggie Wayne for the next couple seasons. Wayne is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver for Indianapolis, while Royal will likely need a few more years to potentially become that guy in Denver.
But in leagues that feature unlimited time frames (Dynasty), Royal does have the clear advantage and the key will be identifying the right time to make the switch. To illustrate my point, let me tell you a little story. Last year at this time, in one of my keeper leagues, I traded Reggie Wayne for Calvin Johnson and draft picks. Perfect timing as, not only did I get Johnson but I also received an additional high draft pick. Right now, if I could make that trade, I might have to throw in a draft pick with Reggie Wayne to get Calvin. I don’t think we are quite at that point yet with Wayne and Royal, but it will come soon enough. Now is the time to start putting feelers out there and see what they might give up in addition to someone like Royal.
BOTTOM LINE
I have a little saying that has never failed me. All things considered equal, go with the player from “The U”. But that little tidbit of wisdom aside, I think last year was no fluke for Eddie Royal. I think RIGHT NOW he’s an ideal No. 2 wide receiver or even a superstar No. 3 for fantasy teams this year. I believe he has the perfect opportunity in Denver with Cutler as his quarterback to develop into a No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.
The only problem is that Reggie Wayne is a No. 1 wide receiver TODAY. Barring an unforeseen injury, Wayne will put up stats worthy of a #1 wide receiver for the next couple seasons. So in single season leagues, Wayne is still the man.
But if you are in a keeper league, the next 12 months are the time you’ll want to start making arrangements for life after Wayne on your fantasy team, and someone like Royal would be a great candidate for all the reasons I mentioned above.
REDRAFT EDGE: Wayne
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Royal
+++++
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