FUTURE FORECAST: RAY RICE


 

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice does not possess ideal height (he’s 5'8), weight (he’s generously listed at 205 lbs.) or many of the other measurable statistics that NFL teams prize in their ball carriers.  However, if there were a way to measure “heart”, Rice’s would be off the charts...
 

He has never let his lack of size stop him from achieving his goals.  As part of a tandem at Rutgers University with Brian Leonard, Rice had a prolific college career and currently holds many school records.  Baltimore saw him as an excellent addition to their ground oriented offense and selected him in the second round of the 2008 Draft.
 

Since the Ravens already had Willis McGahee as their RB1 and the huge Leron McClain backing him up, Baltimore did not seem like a great landing spot for Rice’s fantasy value.  He was largely ignored at many fantasy drafts last fall.  However, events would unfold that soon revealed Rice was acutally in a fine situation.
 

The Ravens decided to proceed with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco under center and did not make any significant improvements to their average receiving corp.  Knowing the passing game was not likely to flourish with those constraints in place, they designed their offensive scheme around the running game.  The plan called for running plays early and often throughout the game, placing as little decision making on Flacco as possible.  Unsurprisingly, the Ravens led the league last year with 592 rushing attempts.
 

Under normal circumstances on other teams, Rice may have had to wait a year or so to gain significant carries.  However, with the Ravens rushing the ball so often, the opportunity to make an immediate impact was there.  With both McGahee and McClain nicked up throughout the season, Rice ran the ball 107 times for 454 yards before succumbing to injury himself in Week 13.  He led the group with 33 receptions as well.
 

Barring any unforeseen changes, the same three guys will be in the backfield again this year.  Nevertheless, if he can stay healthy, Rice may have the inside track to lead the trio.
 

The Ravens once again did not address the wide receiver or tight end position in the recent draft.  Therefore, it would stand to reason that they liked the formula they employed last season and will use it once more this year.  The only difference I can see is, now that Flacco is a year older and has some big time experience under his belt, the Ravens may let him throw more to avoid being quite so one-dimensional.  As mentioned before,  the receiving corp is pedestrian at best, so the running backs should receive a commensurate upgrade in the action.  That’s great news for Rice as he has better hands than McClain and is equally as adept at catching as McGahee is, thus his value in PPR leagues will be higher.
 

The Ravens let bulldozing fullback Lorenzo Neal leave in free agency and are now considering having the behemoth McClain assume the blocking duties.  While he may not be incredibly happy in the role, the move does make sense.  More importantly for Rice owners, it would decrease McClain’s role in terms of rushing, leaving more opportunity for their man to get carries.
 

Regarding McGahee, while he will only be turning 28 during the season, he has an awful lot of wear and tear on his wheels.  He hasn’t played a full year since 2005 and the odds of him doing so now without a reduction in workload seem long.  Also, he fell out of favor when he blamed the coaching staff for his injury plagued year, insisting that their desire that he play at a lighter weight contributed to his woes. 
 

Even with all of these factors in his favor, though, you shouldn’t overrate Rice to a huge extent.  While McGahee and McClain may have their roles reduced, they will still be active participants in the scheme.  There’s also no way of knowing whether Rice’s body can withstand the pounding of the pro game for a full season.  Finally, he will almost certainly not be the goal line back as long as one of the other two are healthy, something that definitely caps his upside.
 

Unless it becomes obvious in training camp and preseason that Rice will be the main man, you should err on the side of caution and draft him as Flex/RB3.  Don’t reach for him, but get ready to call his name starting around the late fourth round.  Worst case scenario is an '08 repeat.  Best case is that you acquire a #3 RB that will have you toiling weekly over who to start as your #2.  

 

 

 

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