It’s often been said that it’s not where a man starts his journey, but where he finishes that counts. Truer words have never been spoken in regards to Kurt Warner’s NFL career, especially when it is juxtaposed with that of another outstanding quarterback of his generation, Peyton Manning...
Warner, undrafted out of Northern Iowa and cut from the Green Bay Packers in 1994, toiled in obscurity in the Arena Football League and NFL Europe until fate lent a hand when he landed the backup quarterback position for the St. Louis Rams in 1999. Starter Trent Green was injured during preseason, Warner took over and made history by leading the Rams’ fabled “Greatest Show on Turf” offense. He has thus far managed to hold off Matt Leinart (his presumed eventual replacement in Arizona) and enjoyed one of his best seasons ever last year, throwing for 4,583 yards and 30 touchdowns.
Manning’s route to the pros was very different. Drafted first overall (remember the Manning vs. Leaf debates?) by Indianapolis in 1998, he has been expected to be the Colts’ leader since Day One. After a tough rookie year, he quickly established himself as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league and has thrown for over 4,000 yards an astonishing nine out of his 11 years in the league and has never missed a game as a pro.
The two have come to symbolize opposite extremes in fantasy football. Manning is “The Sure Thing”, a quarterback who will perform for you year in and year out and never give you a moment’s worry. Warner, on the other hand, is the ultimate “Roll the Dice” type of guy, someone with the potential to lead the league but who seems to get hurt only when you’re the owner who took the chance drafting him.
In the uncertain world of fantasy football, players attempt to remove as much risk as possible. However, in life as well as fantasy, fortune tends to favor the bold, does it not?
So, which path would you choose to tread?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
As Warner played a full slate of games last year for just the first time since the 2001-02 season, it would seem that drafting him this year to be your starting quarterback would be to tempt fate in an unreasonable manner. While that may be true, you simply can’t ignore the following: Should Warner manage to stay healthy and play a full year once more, he possesses one of the finest wide receiver tandems the NFL has in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to. His secondary options (Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban and Tim Hightower) aren’t too shabby, either. Though the offense should remain overwhelmingly air-based, Arizona drafted Chris Wells to help Hightower form a potentially decent running game to balance things out a bit. If he can stay upright (a slight concern as he was sacked 26 times last season, 16th among all quarterbacks), all the pieces are in place for him to post excellent numbers again.
Manning is still in his prime and is over the knee issue that plagued him early last season. However, the cast around him has changed and could definitely influence his year. While Marvin Harrison hasn’t been the same wide receiver who caught 95 balls in 2006-07 season, he did record 60 receptions last year. While third year man Anthony Gonzalez is poised to take the next step in his development and provide Manning with a reliable alternative to Reggie Wayne, who will play the third receiver position is yet to be determined. It’s possible that some of those looks get divvied up between Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark, but Manning loves to spread things around (eight different Colts caught at least 10 passes last season) so it remains to be seen if any of the candidates (Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon or Roy Hall) can become a significant piece of the puzzle.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
At 38, Warner is not a very attractive quarterback in either format. However, there is one exception to the conventional line of thinking. On a roster that has been carefully cultivated over the years and has developed enough to contend for a championship this season or next, he could be the perfect addition as he is close to the top of his game right now. Trading for him would likely require parting with some pretty expensive assets, but there are only a few quarterbacks in fantasy with a better outlook for this upcoming season than him.
Not all that much changes when Manning is viewed within the context of a keeper/dynasty league. He’s always going to be good, should always be durable and will probably not retire to become a highly paid television analyst until he wins another Super Bowl, so it’s fine to invest at least the next few years in him. There will be no worries about the team’s talent level dropping off, either, as the Colts keep replenishing his receiving corps and drafted Donald Brown to shore up the running game. Manning will continue to be among the safest bets in all of fantasy football.
BOTTOM LINE:
If health issues are not a factor, you honestly can’t go wrong with either of these guys. They are considered two of the best quarterbacks in the league for a reason.
In redraft leagues, you’ll pay a premium for Manning’s consistency and will have to draft him by the end of the second round in all likelihood. Warner will be around a little longer than that, so, if you’re willing to gamble that his good health is not an illusion, you’ll be able to spend those high picks on another position.
For the future, though, there is no question that Manning is the superior option.
REDRAFT EDGE: Warner
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KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Manning
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