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BREAKING DOWN THE PACKERS
by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: Shaun Bodiford (WR), John Kuhn (FB)
Gains: None
Losses: None
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
Fifth Rd-Quinn Johnson (FB) LSU
Depth Chart: (updated 6/28/09)
QB-Aaron Rodgers, Brian Brohm, Matt Flynn
RB-Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, Kregg Lumpkin, Tyrell Sutton (rc)
FB-Quinn Johnson (rc), Korey Hall, John Kuhn
WR1-Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Lorne Sam, Kole Heckendorf (rc),
Patrick Williams (rc)
WR2-Greg Jennings, Ruvell Martin, Jake Allen, Brett Swain, JaRon Harris (rc),
Jamarko Simmons (rc)
TE-Donald Lee, Jermichael Finley, Tory Humphrey, Evan Moore, Carson Butler (rc),
Devin Frischknecht (rc)
K-Mason Crosby
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-
Travis Dekker (te/rc)-placed on Reserve/military
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
Sept. 13 Chicago 8:30
Sept. 20 Cincinnati 1:00
Sept. 27 at St. Louis 1:00
Oct. 5 at Minnesota 8:30
Oct. 11 BYE
Oct. 18 Detroit 1:00
Oct. 25 at Cleveland 1:00
Nov. 1 Minnesota 1:00
Nov. 8 at Tampa Bay 1:00
Nov. 15 Dallas 4:15
Nov. 22 San Francisco 1:00
Nov. 26 at Detroit 12:30
Dec. 7 Baltimore 7:30
Dec. 13 at Chicago 1:00
Dec. 20 at Pittsburgh 1:00
Dec. 27 Seattle 1:00
Jan. 3 at Arizona 5:15
Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-30th (109-146)
Passing-24th-213.5 yards allowed per game
Rushing-11th-114.1 yards allowed per game
News and notes:
Aaron Rodgers went from backing up a Hall-of-Famer two years ago to looking like one himself last season. Rodgers will be a top six-quarterback draft pick in most leagues and deservedly so. The battle between Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn is heated and could change from day to day. If Rodgers were to come up the lame his backup has some intriguing fantasy value.
Look for Ryan Grant to once again be the feature back and put up another 1,200 yards and a handful of touchdowns, making him a number two fantasy starter. Rookie fullback Quinn Johnson looks like a road grader according to the Green Bay Press Gazette which should only help Grant and the running game. Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn will battle for fantasy value should Grant go down. Jackson looks to be the third down back this season and has some potential value thanks to his receiving statistics. Wynn may be the better overall back and honestly may be more talented as Grant, but he needs to improve his game. He remains a potential deep sleeper to monitor.
Greg Jennings and Donald Driver again form a solid one-two punch with Jennings a top 10 receiver. The Packers did not make any moves in the offseason so James Jones, Ruvell Martin, and Jordy Nelson will again battle for sleeper value as the Packers third receiver. I like Jones if he can find a way to stay on the field all season. Nelson showed flashes last year and is a guy to keep an eye on. 2008 practice squad player Brett Swain continues to impress, catching everything thrown his way, but he looks to still be no better than the bottom rung if he sticks.
Donald Lee is the front-runner again at tight end but he is nothing more than a number two fantasy option. Jermichael Finley should see more action this season and has much more upside than Lee. Finley has an outside shot to be the number one tight end this season, which would make him an excellent waiver addition. "Last year it was all just overwhelming with everything I was getting thrown in and thrown at" Finley said. "This year I'm comfortable. I used to go into the huddle looking at 'A-Rod' with 8-ball eyes. This year I'm real relaxed and real comfortable, so I'm ready." Last season's backup Tory Humphrey has not looked good in camp and has had his share of drops.
Mason Crosby should be one of the first kickers off the board and will get plenty of field goal and PAT attempts.
By the way, do not ask the Packers what they think about Brett Favre possibly going to the Vikings; they are sick of talking about him.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Base defense: 3-4
2008 Fantasy leaders
Tackles: AJ Hawk (86), Nick Collins (72), Brandon Chillar (69)
Sacks: Aaron Kampman (9.5), Hawk (3), Charles Woodson (3)
Interceptions: Woodson (7), Collins (7), Tramon Williams (5)
Ascending: AJ Hawk - He could really excel as a 3-4 inside linebacker.
Descending: Aaron Kampman - Reportedly unhappy, and truth be told, his skillset doesn't translate to the 3-4.
Notes:
The Packers will be switching to a 3-4 defense in 2009, so the IDP options will likely remain a bit of a mystery until preseason kicks in. But here is what we do know. In 3-4 alignments, the defensive line basically sets the table for the rest of the defense, but generally aren't useful for fantasy purposes. Expect the same here.
BJ Raji looks to be a fixture on the defensive line for many seasons to come, but his purpose will be to eat up blockers, allowing the linebackers to roam freely. Don't expect much in the way of stats from the rookie Raji, or his fellow linemen Ryan Pickett and Justin Harrell.
The linebackers will definitely have a different look in 2009. AJ Hawk will remain as a middle linebacker, and will be joined by a returning Nick Barnett. They should form a solid inside linebacking duo, and each should be viable fantasy starters. The big questions will be the outside linebacker positions. The Packers tentatively have Aaron Kampman, a solid defensive end in the 4-3 alignment, slotted in as a 3-4 outside linebacker. I am not convinced Kampman will be able to handle the coverage packages that the 3-4 alignment will ask him to, not to mention that he reportedly isn't very happy about the switch. For fantasy purposes, I'm steering clear of Kampman. At the other linebacker spot, the Packers drafted Clay Matthews, but I don't see him starting right away for the Packers. So that leaves Brady Poppinga or the other defensive end transplant, Jeremy Thompson. Thompson has lost some weight and does have upside, but there is too much risk here until he establishes himself during the regular season.
Safeties Nick Collins and Atari Bigby lead the Packers defensive backs. Bigby, in particular, may present late round/early waiver wire value as he comes back from a disappointing injury filled season in 2008. At CB, Charles Woodson and Al Harris are both getting long in the tooth, but until better options come along, will have to suffice. If you don't get one of the safeties, then I would recommend looking elsewhere for defensive back help.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
Chad Clifton is a personal favorite, but he's now 33 and had arthroscopic surgery on both knees in the offseason. I don't think he can keep it together for another year. Daryn Colledge just keeps getting better. He's solid at the LG spot. Jason Spitz is moving back to his natural position at Center. He's proven he can play ball. RG is manned by second year player, Josh Sitton. He looks more than capable of handling the part. Giacomini gets the nod at RT, but everyone else seems to be fighting for that job. I'm expecting this line to be compared to a Jello covered brick this year. Solid in the middle, but wobbly on the edges. They do have a lot of depth though, and may be able to come up with something that works in the 2 tackle spots.
Position-by-position grades with rush/pass blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P.)
by Stan Feldman
Watch: WR Greg Jennings.
Despite finishing fourth in fantasy pts. at his position last year, Jennings has barely cracked the top ten ADP among receivers. He's young, improving and the focal point of a passing game that ranked in the NFL's top ten in almost every imaginable passing category, including attempts, completion percentage, yards and passing touchdowns. Ironic that he comes immediately after Calvin Johnson above because he's a perfect example of why Calvin is a bit overvalued. Every bit the fantasy production at minimum 1/2 round later.
Avoid: RB Ryan Grant.
The Packers are a passing team, and Grant, who saw his receptions drop from 30 in 2007 to just 18 in 2008 despite increased playing time, does not offer enough out of the backfield to be considered during the two-round run on tailbacks that opens nearly every fantasy draft. While his late third-round ADP reflects owners' hesitation, owners selecting there would be better served locking down one of the few elite passers there.
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BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
Q: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Status quo by land and air in 2009?
A: I don't think so. There's one name seriously flying under the radar that I want to use this valuable space to put you on. James Jones. Print it out and circle it in red ink if you need to.
Now entering his 3rd season, it's easy to forget that Jones put up rookie numbers in '07 that had everyone raising an eyebrow. His 47 receptions in only nine starts that year had many predicting an increased role last year. Alas, he got bit by the injury bug early, reportedly tearing his PCL in the preseason. An injury that's just bad enough to leave RB's and WR's in the land of the lost (healthy enough to run and injured enough to do little else).
Incumbent Donald Driver enters the '09 NFL season on the downside of 34 years old. In the last 30 years, there were 75 occurrences of a 33 year old WR playing 12 or more games. There were 46 occurrences of the same by 34 year old WR's. A decline of 38.7%. Now that says nothing of Driver's individual chances of playing 12+ games this year. It's simply acknowledging the fact that Driver is of an age where the body stops doing you favors.
The Packers #2 WR has been a bona fide #2/#3 fantasy receiver for years. And the thin sliver of circumstance that's seperating Jones from exactly that is the combined health of Greg Jennings and Driver. If you ask me, that's a downright sneaky situation for a WR that isn't even being selected in 12-team, 16 round mocks among the likes of Juaqin Iglesias, Mushin Muhammed and Nate Washington.
If you remember nothing else from my NFC North "Burning Questions", scoop up Jones just before your kicker. Do NOT let him see your league's waiver wire this year.
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