Marshawn Lynch doesn’t need to look very far to find his worst enemy and the biggest obstacle to his future success.  All he needs to do is locate the nearest mirror...
 

Lynch was a highly coveted running back prospect when he left the University of California after his junior year.  Buffalo made him the 12th overall selection at the 2007 draft, the second running back to be taken behind Adrian Peterson.  Scouts raved about his powerful running, his excellent receiving skills and his ability to create big plays.
 

While he hasn’t exactly disappointed fantasy owners during his two years in the league, he hasn’t blown the doors off those expectations, either.  He hasn’t finished in top ten of fantasy rushers either season, something that seemed like a very real possibility.  Part of the problem has been that Buffalo has had an unreliable passing game, so defenses have been able to focus on him.  The Bills are attempting to rectify that situation this year (more on that later.)
 

However, what should really concern Lynch’s owners is his complete inability to avoid trouble off the field.  He narrowly avoided criminal charges in a 2007 hit and run incident due to the victim not suffering severe injuries.  Then, this past February, Lynch was arrested due to possessing drugs and a loaded gun.  His skillful lawyer managed to plead it down to a misdemeanor gun charge, for which Lynch received three years of probation and 80 hours of community service.  NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell decided to suspend Lynch for three games during the upcoming season.  The case is currently under appeal.
 

If Lynch has truly learned his lesson and can remain on the straight and narrow, he ought to find himself in a very good position to succeed on the field this year.
 

For one thing, if he is suspended for three games, this may actually help fantasy owners rather than impede them.  Lynch will come at a discount during fantasy drafts because the short-sighted fantasy player will hesitate to spend one of his first two picks on a guy guaranteed to miss time.  That curse could turn into a real blessing during fantasy playoff time as Lynch will have less wear and tear on him due to his time off.  He should be more fresh than some of the running backs who have already exceeded the 270 carry mark at that point.  Therefore, while he may not be a main reason you got to the playoffs , he could very well be one of the reasons you bring home the gold.
 

Another factor that portends some good fortune for Lynch is the arrival of Terrell Owens.  While it’s true that Lynch may see some of his opportunities decrease, the Bills will now boast Owens and Lee Evans in their passing attack and opponents now forced to respect it.  That should open up more room for Lynch to operate, leading to more big plays.  Also, with opponents focusing on the wideouts downfield, the Bills could find ways to get the ball to Lynch in the flat (where he would be a coverage mismatch for most linebackers.)  He should record new career highs in receptions - even in 3 fewer games, making him extra value in PPR leagues.
 

Finally, Lynch is one of the few running backs in the league who is not encumbered with a committee situation.  Pass catching specialist Fred Jackson and newly signed Dominic Rhodes are expected to shoulder the load in his absence, but neither one of them is a threat to seriously endanger Lynch’s carries once he returns.  Therefore, barring injury, he should see the majority of backfield touches the rest of the year.
 

Even with all these positives, though, you still have to temper your expectations slightly.  The Bills brought in Owens because of his red zone prowess and he will be a main target near the goal line, something that should cause a decline in Lynch’s scoring.  Also, the most carries in a season Lynch has had in his young career is 280.  If Buffalo plans on working him hard once he returns form suspension, it’s unclear whether or not he can handle the physical toll as he has only had more than 25 rushing attempts in a single game twice.
 

Due to his suspension, Lynch should fall into the third round and be a great value pick as a high-end fantasy RB2.  Taking him there will enable you to draft an elite wide receiver or quarterback with one of your first two picks and still have a potentially fearsome backfield.

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