The circumstances under which Kyle Orton and Joe Flacco are compelled to operate are so similar, it’s no wonder they finished side by side in terms of fantasy points scored last year.
They both play for teams that employ a "Run First" mentality. They are both working with less than stellar receivers. They both play on teams that boast a strong defense, where their role was to do little more than avoid "that" big mistake every week...
The comparisons don’t stop at just their situations, either. They are both tough pocket passers and have both struggled with accuracy at times. They don’t shy away from contact when they scramble and they both have enough size to make the occasional defender pay the price for attempting to take them down. They’ve both displayed maddening bouts of inconsistency coupled with flashes of skill.
Neither Orton or Flacco are likely to be drafted as anyone’s fantasy starter. However, they could both prove to be excellent values, anyway.
So, who has the edge?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
Orton was having quite a decent year last season until he injured his ankle against Detroit in Week 9. He had the first 300 yard game of his career in Week 5 and threw for more than 250 yards on three separate occasions prior to the injury. He admitted after the season that he never quite got his timing back with his receivers once he returned, something that definitely showed up in his numbers. He seemed to prove enough to Lovie Smith to retain the starting duties this year (but not to GM Jerry Angelo, who declared that the position needs to be upgraded). Still, until the Bears decide to invest some serious coin in some decent receivers (neither Devin Hester nor Rasheid Davis come close to being considered legitimate WR1 candidates), Orton has probably reached his ceiling in terms of fantasy production (3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns) and it would be unwise to expect any differently. Consider him a backup plan and draft him past the seventh round.
Flacco was never supposed to be Baltimore’s starter last season, but he performed admirably, given the fact that he was simply thrown into the fire. He struggled early on, posting seven interceptions against a single touchdown through Week 6, but matured quickly and threw only five more picks the rest of the year. He gained valuable experience in the playoff games against Tennessee and Pittsburgh, something that should certainly aid his continued development this year. He is Baltimore’s unquestioned starter going into this season and should be in line for an improved fantasy year. However, like Orton, he’ll be hamstrung to a degree by the lack of receiving talent (though an aging Derrick Mason still crushes anyone on the Bears) around him as well as the Ravens’ reliance on the run. He should be counted on as nothing more than an emergency fill-in and should be taken at the tail end of the #2 quarterback run of your draft.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
Angelo’s statement about upgrading the Bear’s QB position and the recent rumors of them talking to Denver about Jay Cutler do not bode incredibly well for Orton’s future in Chicago. Still, barring some unforeseen situation, he’ll be under center for them for Week One. Beyond that, however, is a big question mark. He does have some skill and, as long as he has a dynamic pass-catching running back like Matt Forte to throw to, he’ll perform reasonably well as a fantasy quarterback. However, nothing will change the fact that he does not possess an NFL-quality arm and that weakness will never allow him to be a top ten passer. That major flaw drops his future value considerably.
The future for Flacco, on the other, is very bright. He has all the physical tools to succeed in this league, including the ideal measurables for a quarterback as well as a rocket for an arm. He also has the added benefit of being a gifted scrambler who can pick up yards with his feet as evidenced by his 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns last season. He is a competitor who plays a smart game. As he gains experience and learns how to read defenses better, his fantasy stats will improve. Holding onto him will make you look very wise down the road.
BOTTOM LINE
Unless you spend a high pick on a sure thing like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, you’re basically taking a quarterback for his potential and his situation. Yes, it’s a gamble, but quarterback is a good position to roll the dice on as, every year, unlikely candidates emerge to benefit the gutsy owner who stuck his neck out to claim them.
However, in fantasy football, you would ideally love to remove as much risk as possible. In the short term, you’d prefer to have Orton on your team as his experience level means he’ll probably be the greater performer next season. Overall, though, there’s simply no contest as to which guy will be better down the road.
REDRAFT EDGE: Orton
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Flacco
+++++
LIKE THIS? THREAD THE NEEDLE ARCHIVES.