TIER ONE: The guys you take to the bank. They'll be there for you (injuries notwithstanding). However, PLEASE realize that, as with the top of any other fantasy position) you are NOT going to get great value. So with these guys I would just go into my draft assuming that I won’t be getting one. With Fantasy Football Trader on your side, you'll be finding value further down theese rankings.
1. Patrick Willis, SF
Willis' production took a dip from his fantastic rookie season, but still ranked in the top five for points scored. Fast, smart and strong enough to do it all, and age has reached perfection. Was one of the top two individual defensive players selected last year, and is a lock to be selected as one of the top two defensive players selected this year, so it will be next to impossible to get value for him.
2. Barrett Ruud, TB
Ruud doesn't have the flashy name of Willis or the big play ability of Harrison and Ware. But what Ruud does offer is “forget about it” consistency. Ruud had only game last year where he failed to score five fantasy points or more, matched by only D'Qwell Jackson of the Browns. Chances are that he'll be the last of the tier one linebackers drafted. But after his second consecutive season of 100 plus tackles, Ruud won’t be as unknown heading into 2009 as he was last year.
3. DeMarcus Ware, DAL
I'm not sure there is a bigger “big play” guy on the defensive side of the ball than DeMarcus Ware. Ware is a matchup problem for everyone, and it showed last year, as he had at least one sack in 14 games. However, as the pass rushing outside linebacker (OLB), upside is somewhat limited as it will be hard to duplicate 20+ sacks on a consistent basis. But at only 26 years old, Ware is now just entering his prime, so 15-18 sacks for the next few years is not out of the question. That should be enough to keep him in the top five at the linebacker position so as long as he continues to pile up respectable tackle numbers.
4. Jon Beason, CAR
Beason is a more athletic version of Barrett Ruud, and as the middle linebacker (MLB) in the Panthers' defense, Beason could easily vault to the top of this list next year. He led the NFL in solo tackles last year, and could do the same in 2009. Not a pass rusher, so big plays (sacks) will be limited, although he could snag a couple of interceptions every year.
5. DeMeco Ryans, HOU
Ryans started off last season with two monster games, but was very inconsistent thereafter. Ryans did battle through a couple nagging injuries, but should be at full strength heading into next season. Will only be 25 on opening day 2009, so he's a prime candidate to bounce back to top-five status.
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TIER TWO: Tier two cats are guys that are very likely to produce as much as tier one guys, but you won’t have to pay nearly as much for. Where you would have to sacrifice good offensive depth to nab a tier 1 guy, chances are that you can get these a round or two later (and sometimes more), allowing you to shore up your offensive skill positions depth.
Last year in one of my “expert” leagues, Patrick Willis went in the fifth round, while I was able to get my third RB (Kevin Smith). The next round I was able to get my third WR in Roddy White, while others took DeMeco Ryans and David Harris. Later on (15th round) I drafted my first defensive player, Barrett Ruud. Checkmate my friend. That's the stuff that separates who dominates and who donates.
6. Jon Vilma, NO
What a difference a year can make. In 2007 Vilma, then with the New York Jets, struggled with not only injuries, but a change in defensive schemes as the Jets moved from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense. In the process, Vilma lost his job and was traded to the New Orleans Saints. Recovering quicker than anticipated, and back to his normal 4-3 middle linebacker role, Vilma bounced back in a huge way in 2008, tallying 132 total tackles. As a 4-3 middle linebacker, big plays will be minimal, but solo tackles should offset that. Vilma will be two years removed from his 2007 leg injury next year, and at only 27 years old, he has a few more productive years yet.
7. Kirk Morrison, OAK
Nmandi Asomugha gets all the accolades, but it’s Morrison that gets all the tackles. Morrison is a flat out tackling machine. Over the past four years, his combined tackle totals are 116, 127, 120 and 135, and he is usually good for a few bonus plays each year. Truth be told, besides Mayo, Morrison is the most likely to reach tier one status this year. Consistent, but with upside. That’s a hard combination to beat come draft day.
8. Jerod Mayo, NE
This guy continued the trend of rookie linebackers making a big impact, following in the same path DeMeco Ryans and Patrick Willis in the years before him. Very athletic, at 6-1 and 240 pounds, Mayo had 100 solo tackles in his rookie campaign. He didn't have any bonus plays this year (sacks/interceptions), but potential is there for at least a few bonus plays a year. Of the guys listed in tier 2, Mayo possesses the highest upside.
9. Karlos Dansby, ARI
Dansby is one of the most balanced linebackers in the game, in the sense that he is equally productive at every aspect. Last year, in addition to 119 total tackles, Dansby also contributed four sacks and two interceptions, which gives him a nice combination of consistency and big play potential.
10. Paul Posluszny, BUF
Posluszny racked up 110 tackles in what was, for all intents and purposes, his rookie season. Posluszny isn’t a real threat to rack up bonus plays, but he is very persistent in the run game and has a good nose for the ball. I think this year, with the Bills healthier on both sides of the ball, the stability should allow Posluszny to break out this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t wind up with 130+ tackles this year.
The rest of the rankings:
Sleeper Alert = These are guys who are probably ranked higher in my rankings than where they will likely be drafted. Plan accordingly, and you can probably draft these guys a touch below where they are ranked.
Value Alert = These are guys who are probably ranked lower in my rankings than where they will likely be drafted, but if they are available at my slotted ranking, they then present tremendous value.
Tier 3
11. Chad Greenway, MIN
12. David Harris, NYJ (Sleeper Alert)
13. DJ Williams, DEN
14. James Harrison, PIT
15. D’Qwell Jackson, CLE
16. Ernie Sims, DET (Value Alert)
Greenway had a breakout season last year, but many are wondering how productive he will be with EJ Henderson returning from injury. I think he'll be fine. Sims has been productive the last couple of years, but some wonder if his stat line will suffer with the addition of two solid linebackers in Julian Peterson and Larry Foote. As the case with Greenway, I think Sims will actually benefit. David Harris will reestablish his success from two seasons ago. He could present some value as many forget about him because of last year. DJ Williams has been productive for several years now and with Denver’s defense, he should get plenty of tackle opportunities. James Harrison and D’Qwell Jackson round out the tier 3, and while I think both don’t match last year’s total, they will be productive enough to warrant consideration here.
Tier 4
17. London Fletcher, WAS (Value Pick Alert)
18. Lofa Tatupu, SEA
19. Bradie James, DAL
20. AJ Hawk, GB
21. James Laurinaitis, STL
22. Curtis Lofton, ATL (Sleeper Pick Alert)
Every bit as good as tier 3 guys, but each has a tiny red flag that suggests your expectations might need to be tempered. Tatupu will now battle with Leroy Hill and rookie Aaron Curry for tackles. Bradie James eats from the same table as DeMarcus Ware, although last year he did finish with 116 combined tackles. AJ Hawk transitions to a new scheme this year, so while I think he will benefit from the change, it remains to be seen how much. The biggest value may be Curtis Lofton. Last year Lofton had 94 tackles, and I think he exceeds that this year, but Mike Peterson has a say in how much. Laurinaitis is my initial pick to lead all rookies in tackles.
Tier 5
23. Ray Lewis, BAL
24. Stewart Bradley, PHI
25. Channing Crowder, MIA (Sleeper Pick Alert)
26. Gary Brackett, IND
27. Lance Briggs, CHI (Value Pick Alert)
28. Eric Barton, CLE
29. Brian Urlacher, CHI
Of this group, there is a good probability that Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher will have already been taken as someone's number one linebacker. That would be good news to you, as that would only push someone from tier 3 and tier 4 down to you here. I think Gary Brackett should be in line for another solid season, especially as he works with two younger linebackers. I like Eric Barton, who will have to share tackles with D'Qwell Jackson, but I think there are enough tackles to go around in Cleveland. I really like Channing Crowder in 2009. He could end up with 120+ tackles this year.
Tier 6
30. Nick Barnett, GB (Value Pick Alert)
31. EJ Henderson, MIN
32. James Farrior. PIT
33. Keith Rivers, CIN (Sleeper Pick Alert)
34. Justin Durant, JAX
35. Thomas Davis, CAR
36. Lawrence Timmons, PIT
Barnett and EJ Henderson both return from injury and I think there are a few people who are underestimating them slightly, especially in light of their teammates’ recent success, AJ Hawk and Chad Greenway respectively. Rivers and Timmons both have had the "breakout" label bestowed on them from experts all around this preseason, and I agree (as I alerted you to them last year in this same space). I think both could end up in the top 20 by the end of this year. Justin Durant had 70 tackles a year ago, and I think the third year man breaks triple digits in tackles this year. Thomas Davis and James Farrior, on the other hand, will need to maximize their opportunities because of the great talent each is surrounded with, but both have done it enough times that I think they are safe options, especially as a number three starter.