
Throughout the season, I am going spotlight three different match-ups where I take two players at the same position, look at their stats for the previous week, and pit them head-to-head, and see which one will have a better rest of the season.
Matthew Stafford, Lions v. Vince Young, Titans
Do you have Brett Favre? or Eli Manning? Then you know that your bye week has arrived or is coming up on the horizon. What if you had Kerry Collins as your backup quarterback, Shaun Hill, or (gulp) Trent Edwards? None of those guys have any real value for the rest of the year, and chances are that Chad Henne has already found a home; which brings us to the No.1 overall draft pick, Matthew Stafford and another former high draft pick, Vince Young...
Both of these quarterbacks have “potential” written on them. They can only go up from where they're at, but which has the potential to go higher? Let's take a look.
With everything that rests on Matthew Stafford's shoulders, the young man has shouldered it considerably well. His line hasn't done him any favors, giving up 22 sacks and 39 QB hits and missing two games with a dislocated kneecap. When he been able to attempt passes, he hasn't been that efficient, throwing just three touchdowns while tossing eight interceptions on the season. Not exactly numbers to write home about. But before he got hurt, from Week 2 to Week 4, he completed 61.6% of his passes and his passing yards improved each game from 152 to 241, and finishing that stretch with 296 yards against the Bears defenses. Those are not your typical rookie numbers and considering he only has Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson as playmaker, that’s pretty good. He did stumble a bit in Week 8 against the hapless Rams in his first game after the injury; but keep in mind that he is still missing his top target in Calvin Johnson who was out with a knee injury, as well as running back Kevin Smith, who left the game with an injury.
The schedule ahead doesn't look any easier for Stafford either, with the Vikings, Packers, Bengals, Ravens, Cardinals, 49ers and Bears all on the docket and all of which are still in the playoff hunt. Only the Browns and Seahawks are looking like contests where Stafford can keep it close. However, those tough games will likely also mean that Stafford could be passing out of the shotgun and two minute offense a lot. Garbage points are still points in fantasy, and if "Megatron" Johnson can stay healthy, then he could still put up some respectable numbers. Fantasy owners can live with the interceptions as long as he gets it into the end zone on a regular basis as well.
Week 8 saw the winless Titans demoted Kerry Collins and gave the starting job to Vince Young. By benching Collins, The Titans basically said, "Thanks for taking us to the playoffs last year, Kerry, but what the boss wants, the boss gets.” The Titans have to find out if Vince Young is their future and that's why we'll probably see him start for the rest of the year, no matter what happens. Young has nowhere to go but up, and he's being given the opportunity to show that he can lead the Titans in a positive direction. The pieces around him are better than when he was replaced last season. Looking at the schedule, the Titans play five of their remaining nine games at home. If he can manage the game as he did in Week 8 where he completed 83.3% of his passes and got loose for another 30 yards on the ground, than he'll be able to keep that awful defense off the field. The question for Young is, can he keep it together upstairs for the rest of the season?
I think he can, and the Titans will weather this rough patch that they are currently in. They have an elite running back, a good tight end, and decent receivers to help Young out. That's more than what most teams who have one to three wins can say. I do like the gun slinging Stafford, and the possibility of him getting lots of garbage time stats, but his ability to make something happen depends greatly on the health of Calvin Johnson, which right now is a very iffy proposition. Stafford doesn't have the running game that Young has and defenses will sit back until they make a real effort to run the ball. Young has more talent surrounding him to give him a chance to perform on a weekly basis and that's why he wins this Heads Up.
Young makes the Titans season a respectable one. +++++
Ryan Moats, Texans v. Shonn Greene, Jets
Uncertainty is a wicked little play toy for the fantasy gods. In this Heads Up, we take a look at Ryan Moats who is the hot pickup of the week after he stepped in after Steve Slaton fumbled away his opportunity. Was this just a wake-up call for Slaton, or could his job really be in jeopardy? And what about last week's flavor of the week, Shonn Greene? After having a big Week 7, he was a no-show in Week 8.
The reports at the beginning of the season concerning Texans running back Steve Slaton were that he came in overweight and out of shape. Eight weeks into the season, Slaton has yet to approach 100 yards rushing and has only two rushing touchdowns on the season. He has had a few days where he's been more involved in the passing game catching 29 passes, for 314 yards and three touchdowns. That kind of versatility still makes him a player that you have to believe the Texans want to have on the field. The reason he is in limbo, is that he has seven fumbles, with five lost. Those mistakes are momentum killers, and can wreck any box score, especially when his stats aren't as robust as last season. It's respectable that Houston put in Moats, who scored more rushing touchdowns in that one game than Slaton has all year, not to mention easily breaking the century mark with 126 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. That's a real threat to Slaton, and so is the third running back, Chris Brown.
On the Texans official website, head coach Gary Kubiak said in practice this week "I'm going to work them all and make a decision at the end of the week," Kubiak said. "I'll play them all. We need them all to win. They know they are all going to play and be a part of what we're doing. Obviously, Ryan earned some time on the football field the way he played. But we've got to get all three ready to play." The most dreadful words to be spoken to a fantasy owner are, "I'll play them all." It's like nails on a chalkboard. Is it gamesmanship, or will Kubiak outsmart himself by riding the hot-hand and create a mess at running back with his team 5-3?
This is a crucial time for the Texans who will play the Colts twice in four weeks, and afterwards should be able to put up lots of points against the Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams and Dolphins before closing with the Patriots at home. This is the first time that the Texans can actually talk about being in the playoff hunt and so Moats' future looks like he'll get more opportunities to show what else he can do based on his Week 8 game. Brown probably won't be worked in that much, but expect at least a two-back committee between Slaton and Moats much like what's going on in Denver with Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno. Slaton just might get more passes thrown his way than Moats, especially after tight end Owen Daniels tore the ACL in his right knee.
Meanwhile, Greene finally broke onto the scene after Leon Washington was carted off after breaking a bone in his leg. Already featuring Thomas Jones, the Jets decided to give the rookie a shot in a blowout win against the Raiders. He responded with 144 yards and two touchdowns. But his shot at seeing regular time was dealt a dose of crazy eights this past week, when he rushed the ball eight times for eighteen yards in the Week 8 game rematch against the Dolphins. Like Washington, I don't believe Greene is a real threat to Jones who like I said in an earlier Heads Up, will be given plenty of opportunity to strut his stuff after a Pro-Bowl season where he rushed for 1,312 and 13 touchdowns. And strut his stuff Jones has thus far, as his attempts (18.6), rushing yards (88.0), and touchdowns (7) are all more than acceptable at this point in the season. And I believe those numbers will continue to rise as the season goes along. Greene, who was drafted for the future, will remain the change of pace back for now, but I think it will take something unfortunate to happen to Jones (who already runs with a chip on his shoulder) for Greene to take any more than 8-10 snaps a game.
Moats has plenty more value than Greene at this point of the season and in looking forward. On pure opportunity and situation, Moats looks to have asserted himself in this big divisional push the Texans want to make. The Jets are trying to hold it together long enough for their rookie quarterback to catch on, so putting the ball in the hands of a rookie running back seems counterproductive especially when Jones is running so well. The timeshare looks to be more equal in Houston than in New York.
Moats with a strong edge over Greene +++++
Eddie Royal, Broncos v. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Some fantasy owners hold onto players well past their expiration date for a variety of reasons. They could be hypnotized by the player's performance from a previous year, maybe the player hasn't properly healed from an early season injury or perhaps the killer of them all is that they just KNEW they'd be a sleeper and selected them too early in round four of their draft. Check your ego at the door, fantasy owners. Loyalty is great in theory, but this is the Not For Long league we're talking about here, and in fantasy football, that kind of devotion can leave you dead in the water. Every year is different, and last season's studs could be this season's duds, especially if you've already given your heart to some bum on your bench thanks to some bromance crush from 2008. Lance Moore anyone? Matt Forte? So I ask, can a rookie, who missed all of training camp and nearly half the season really be worth more to a fantasy owner than a second year player who had nearly 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving in his rookie season? Most definitely, as seen in this week's receiver Heads Up between Eddie Royal and Michael Crabtree.
Royal has started six of seven games this season, but only has 20 receptions and 158 yards. His two touchdowns came on a 93-yard kick return and a 71-yard punt return in the same game. This proves that it's not that he's incapable of making big plays, but he just hasn't connected very often with Kyle Orton. Let's look at the lack of difference between the Broncos No. 1 and No. 2 receivers' targets. Brandon Marshall has been targeted 51 times ranking him the 20th most targeted receiver, while Royal has been targeted 49 times and is ranked at 30th. The difference is that Marshall has 33 catches while Royal has 20. Besides the Week 5 game against the Patriots where he caught 10 passes for 90 yards, Royal has caught no more than three passes or topped 20 yards in the other games. His average yards per catch is a miniscule 7.9 yards. Even though he is a starter, his numbers put him far behind Marshall and Jabar Gaffney in receiving yards. Josh McDaniels created this offense so that it would be difficult to defend, but has also made it difficult for his players to get consistent fantasy points.
Michael Crabtree finally got a contract and was immediately inserted at starting wide receiver for the 49ers. In his first game he caught five passes for 56 yards, and followed that with six catches for 81 yards against one of the toughest pass defenses in the Colts. After two weeks on the team, Crabtree is already fifth on the team in receptions (11) and fourth in yards (137), and at this pace should be second on the team in both categories in another three weeks. He only has to jump over Frank Gore (running back), Isaac Bruce (too old) and Josh Morgan (too slow). Last week he was targeted nine times, one less than elite receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.
The 49ers still have a ways to go before they can be a serious playoff contender. In many games they find themselves behind at halftime and that's when defenses let up a bit and leave the middle of the field open for the 49ers offense to dink and dunk to Crabtree before getting into the red zone. The only 49er who sticks out as a red zone target is Vernon Davis, and after catching seven touchdowns, who can blame them; but that doesn't mean that Crabtree can't rack up the receptions and yards between the 20's. The switch at quarterback is also helping Crabtree. Alex Smith is completing more passes, he's throwing farther down the field, and his quarterback rating is up. All of that helps Crabtree in his crash course of the NFL.
Even though Michael Crabtree is a risk, he stands to benefit from an offense that will continue to throw in the second half, features less talented and slower teammates, and a quarterback who has nothing to lose. For the remainder of the season, Crabtree will line up against four of the league's worst pass defenses in the Rams, Lions, Jaguars, and Titans. If Crabtree happens to be on the waiver wire, pick him up. Royal, on the other hand, faces five of the top ten pass defenses in the league. He has shown no signs of reversing this depressing season from a fantasy standpoint. Let's say he does have another breakout game, what confidence do you have that he would be able to do it again and again? You don't, and that's why Royal is not an attractive receiver, no matter what he did last season.
Crabtree has plenty more bark in the season +++++