Throughout the season, I am going spotlight three different match-ups where I take two players at the same position, look at their stats for the previous week, and pit them head-to-head, and see which one will have a better rest of the season.
Tony Romo, Cowboys v Brett Favre, Packers
Two quarterbacks who had noticeable collapses last season go head-to-head this week. In 2009, Tony Romo has displayed his usual flashes of brilliance, and Brett Favre is the Neverending Story. But Romo has never been a second half quarterback, especially during the fantasy playoff season. And the question in Minnesota isn't if they are a contender with Favre, but rather; can Brett's arm last all season long, or will he peter out like last year? Just like in the movie, The Prestige, this is the fantasy version of the battle of magicians, who dazzle the crowd with late game heroics and highlights, but in this Heads Up, only one will get top-billing.
As of Week 7, Favre ranks in the top five among quarterbacks with 157 completions, 228 attempts, and 68.9% completion percentage. Favre also ranks in the top ten with 1,681 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions, and has a quarterback rating of 102.2 at the overripe age of 40. But the media is always looking to tear him down and after two costly turnovers against the Steelers, the Favre haters came out to remind us how bad he can be, instead of placing the blame where it should have been. *Cough* Chester Taylor *Cough*.
The old vet truly has been the X-factor the Vikings had been missing. Last week's debacle against the Steelers aside, Minnesota has already won three games they would have lost last season simply because of Favre. He has flipped on the light for Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, and in so doing, has lightened Adrian Peterson's load, which has allowed Peterson to become even more effective. Favre has not only been a difference-maker, he's the Vikings MVP so far this year, which says a lot when you have A.P.
On the other side, if it wasn't for Miles Austin, the last two games could have dropped Romo to a below average quarterback. Seriously. He has absolutely no chemistry with their “money” wideout Roy Williams, even though they supposedly worked on their bromance in the off-season. Compounding that is an ineffective running game and the Romo-to-Jason Witten connection in the red zone has not been exactly easy money like in years' past. Witten leads the team in receptions, but with only 312 yards receiving and one touchdown, he's just plain ordinary. Patrick Crayton continues to be under-utilized and the easiest part of their schedule is behind them with maybe the exception of the two games against the Redskins. That's too many problems to solve mid-season.
In a game-by-game analysis, Romo has out-thrown the opposing quarterback in every one of his games except in Week 2. He has thrown for at least 250 yards in every game, and over 300 four times. That places him at the bottom of the top ten in major categories, with 1,652 passing yards, and a quarterback rating 94.7; but Romo ranks only in the middle of the pack with 194 passing attempts, a 60.3 completion percentage and nine touchdowns. Those numbers are consistent to last year up to the point he got injured in Week 7. The biggest difference being that he tossed five more touchdowns by their Week 7 bye in 2008. For the sake of this argument, let's say he keeps pace with last season. That's worrisome when you consider how poorly Romo played in December in '08, and still has yet to prove to his critics that he's shaken those late-season blues. Until he does, I'm going to remain one of his doubters, especially when the Cowboys are still trying to find their offensive identity halfway through this season.
Romo has five remaining NFC East divisional games, and anything can happen there. But he also has the Raiders, Packers, Saints, Chargers and Seahawks, all vulnerable through the air. I believe that Romo and the “Cab-Boys” have been doing it with smoke and mirrors all season and after you've seen the tricks enough times, the magic show isn't so magical anymore. The problem with watching a game on a big screen is that the little details are clearer in high definition, and now that everyone in the state of Texas can see the game, the flaws have never been more apparent. On the flip side, Favre has thrown four multiple touchdown games, and should have at least six more considering the Vikings remaining schedule. There should be no fear of a late season collapse from Favre because he has the best running back in the league and a top-rated defense for support, two aces up his sleeve that Romo just can't pull out of his helmet.
The old magician leaves the crowd in awe, while the apprentice warms up for his yearly disappearing act. +++++
Beanie Wells, Cardinals v Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
In this battle of two former Big 10 running backs, is one back that punishes defenders with his north-south running style, and another back who can not only do the same, but also has the luxury of bouncing it to the outside. The problem for both of these backs is that their teams are widely considered pass-heavy teams.
The Cardinals sound more and more like the clergy men Cardinals instead of the Cardinal bird, because they are always preaching how they want to improve their running game, but in the end, they never solve their problem. They are currently last in the league in running yards. That's an amazing accomplishment when you consider how bad some teams are this year. They are worse than Cleveland. The Browns, folks! This is and always will be a passing team, as long as Kurt Warner is behind center. Now, talk about preaching...
Wells didn't do himself any favors when he got injured (a recurring problem developed in college) and started training camp behind the eight ball. He had trouble picking up the blitzes and that kept him on the bench. Oh, and he fumbles too. For the first ten games, Wells never got more than 10 touches. Finally, in Week 7, Wells showed that every dog gets his bone and scored his first touchdown last week against the Giants. Statistically, his carries have increased in each of the last four games, as has his yardage in each game. It's a stretch, but its slim pickings right now for productive waiver wire running backs and chances are, Wells could still be around waiting to be picked up. Still hesitant? Look at the rest of his schedule. He will undoubtedly hit a rough patch from Weeks 12-14, but he will also get to show his wares against the Bears, Panthers, Rams (twice), Lions, and Seahawks defenses who are ranked in the middle or near the bottom of the league in rush defenses. I spy a fantasy bargain.
In the Steel City, this present incarnation of Rooney's Kids is also a devoted passing team. For the longest time, the powerful running game was always a stalwart of good Steelers teams; but when you win a Super Bowl without one that creates a recipe that's hard to argue against. The Steelers are ranked 17th in rushing yards, but it's only to set up Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game. But all of that will improve. Why? Because I see a long and cold winter ahead for the rust belt. How do I know this? Because I double as an amateur meteorologist and I can predict bad weather. But on the real, with the exception of the final game of the season in Miami, the Steelers play the entire month of December in Pittsburgh and Cleveland, which has been a home game for the Steelers for several years.
Mendenhall will be depended on greatly in that month, like in Week 4 against the Chargers, when Rashard won the starting running back job for the rest of the year. Willie Parker simply can't wear a defense down like Mendenhall, and neither can Mewelde Moore. Great motivators know how to get the most from their players and Head Coach Mike Tomlin may have to jolt his starter with the proverbial verbal cattle prod every now and then, but it seems to be working with Mendenhall. In the last four games Mendenhall has averaged 5.3 yards per rush. He's only handling the ball an average of 18 times a game during that span, yet he has outrushed each of the opposing running backs including LaDainian Tomlinson, Kevin Smith, Jamal Lewis, and Adrian Peterson. His only blemish is that he's prone to fumbling the ball. But believe me, when this team gets a big lead on a team, and they will against the Browns, Chiefs, and Raiders later in the year; guess who will tote the rock? You got it.
If Mr. Glass err– I mean, if Beanie can stay healthy the rest of the season, and that's a big if, he could produce around 700 yards and six touchdowns in the last ten games. If you're stuck with Larry Johnson, or Matt Forte, then you'd take that. But in this Heads Up, those numbers are not enough to keep up with what Mendenhall and the Steelers have started doing and what they're going to continue to do throughout the year.
Mendenhall will be a Meanie, and Wells will be a Beanie–Baby. +++++
Hakeem Nicks, Giants v Percy Harvin, Vikings
Two rookies that are way ahead of schedule are the Giants' Hakeem Nicks and the Vikings' Percy Harvin. Both were taken in the first round of this year's draft and have been more successful than other receivers taken in front of them, but are either of them worthy of picking up to fill that No. 3 receiver or flex position on your starting fantasy roster?
Like many Giants, Nicks started the season nursing a foot injury suffered in Week 1. It took him three weeks to return but he has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games. Last week he was at the right place at the right time and caught a deflected pass and raced to the end zone against the Cardinals. He is now tied for the lead on the team with four touchdowns with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. The Giants offense has put up impressive numbers but injuries are beginning to take their toll and after a great start, they have hit a plateau after Eli Manning was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis. Now the running game is hitting a speed bump and the passing game is leaving plays out on the field thanks to miscommunication, poor route running, and dropped passes. This brings us to Nicks, who is taller than both Smith and Manningham. His fantasy profile is climbing while the others are falling. Manningham has dropped more than his share of passes, while Smith has quieted down from his blistering pace in September. The routes Nicks tends to run are more downfield and that gives him a comparable big play potential of Manningham but with more consistency thanks to his softer hands.
Meanwhile, nursing a shoulder injury hasn't slowed down the rookie out of Florida. Harvin is an all-purpose threat who can burn defenders in the running game, the passing game and especially in the return game. In leagues that score return yards and scores, he has been a great flex option receiver. And for those who have the Vikings team defense/special teams should keep in mind his impact. Even though the Vikings lost las week to Pittsburgh 27-17, twelve of those points came off turnovers, and Harvin lessened the blow with his 88-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. He is currently battling with Bernard Berrian for the Vikings No. 2 receiver spot, and has not been affected by the rookie syndrome. Unfortunately for Harvin, he is a receiver who excels between the 20s and not in the red zone yet, as Favre is locked into Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe in that area and as a result, Harvin has not seen the end zone off the offensive set since Week 2. That could all change by December but Favre tends to feed two targets plenty and if he has some extra to go around, that's where Harvin will come into play.
In the end, rookie wide receivers are a crapshoot, and Nicks and Harvin are no different. Neither can be safely relied to post huge points each week, or even regular points quite yet, but each is capable of putting up solid rookie numbers. Nicks can do it as a traditional receiver, while Harvin does it in a variety of ways. Between the two, though, I like Nicks as a better fantasy option because of his size and the fact that his quarterback is ranked third in number of 20+ yard pass plays where Nicks usually roams. Unless your league scores return yards, Harvin is still better suited as a fourth receiver or flex option, where Nicks can be considered for that number 3 receiver during the second half of the season.
Harvin gets Nicked Up in this Heads Up +++++
