Wide receivers Steve Smith and Greg Jennings are two wideouts standing at opposite ends of their respective careers...
Smith recently turned 30 years old, and despite his most productive season since 2005 (78 receptions for 1421 yards and six touchdowns in fourteen games in 2008), many question his potential going forward due to previous durability concerns (the two games missed in 2008 were due to suspension) and the even more dubious status of the Panthers’ quarterback situation. Jennings, on the other hand, added his name to the long list of third-year breakouts, shattering previous career-highs in receptions (80) and yards (1292) and a respectable nine touchdowns.
At first glance, their 2008 seasons were so similar (including targets: 129 for Smith, 125 for Jennings) that they may seem interchangeable looking ahead to 2009, and while Jennings appears to play in a more favorable offense, Smith is the established brand, making the decision even more difficult for owners. With that in mind, FFT takes a closer look at their prospects for 2009 and after.
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
The disastrous conclusion to Jake Delhomme’s season has not affected Smith’s draft status yet largely because the Panthers seem content to give their veteran signal-caller the opportunity to rebound from his showing in the divisional round of last year’s NFC playoff; Smith currently stands as a late second-round pick. There is little doubt, however, that Delhomme’s time in Carolina is limited; he simply isn’t a capable enough quarterback to take advantage of the Panthers’ unique weapons, and there is a feeling of desperation surrounding the team and coach John Fox who feel as if their window of opportunity is slamming shut.
Further north in Green Bay, Jennings finds himself the focal point of one of the NFL’s up-and-coming offenses. Propelled by the emergence of Aaron Rodgers as a franchise quarterback, Jennings surpassed fellow wideout Donald Driver, becoming a dynamic and prolific receiving threat. As such, he is being drafted at the turn of the second round, on average within just a few picks of Smith.
As a disclaimer, owners should be thrilled to land either of these wideouts. Smith’s ADP, however, which slots him as the twenty-second player taken in the standard draft, seems too high given his history of injury (he has played 16 games in just two seasons) and the overall trajectory of the Panthers as a team. Jennings, on average the twenty-sixth player drafted, is a player of immediate equal value with the potential for even more this season given the expected development of Green Bay’s offense.
For owners selecting toward the end of the second round, those four draft slots can make a significant difference. Having already taken an elite running back at the draft’s start, an owner with a finger on the pulse of his/her draft’s mood can maximize that late second-round pick by waiting for Jennings (or perhaps Smith) in the early third. One of them will be available there.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
There isn’t much to consider here. While Jennings has had his own minor injury concerns, there is nothing to indicate that an injury will continue to nag him over the next few years. Of course, that statement is largely meaningless in a sport where catastrophic injury is always moments away, but an ACL tear or concussion history would be the only issue to prevent dynasty owners from selecting Jennings (currently just 25 years old) over Smith. Since that doesn’t exist, the choice here is clear.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Though they aren’t in the upper echelon of fantasy wideouts (which is just Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss), Smith and Jennings sit squarely in the gray area just below them. In some respects, Smith and Jennings represent better value than those top-tier wideouts due to their draft position, and as discussed earlier, Jennings is especially attractive given his ADP (though it shouldn’t surprise owners to find Smith there from time-to-time instead of his younger counterpart).
Keep in mind that the goal of a fantasy draft is to get the best value with every pick, and passing on one of the 1a wideouts to grab one of these 1b guys a round later should always be a consideration.
REDRAFT EDGE: Push
KEEPER EDGE: Jennings
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