by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: None
Gains: Tony Gonzalez (TE), Verron Haynes (RB)
Losses: Michael Vick (QB), Marcus Pollard (TE), Laurent Robinson (WR)
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
None
Depth Chart: (updated 7/5/09)
QB-Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley, John Parker Wilson (rc)
RB-Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, Jason Snelling, Thomas Brown, Verron Haynes
FB-Ovie Mughelli
WR1-Roddy White, Harry Douglas, Eric Weems, Darren Mougey (rc), Troy Bergeron,
Brandon Godfrey (rc)
WR2-Michael Jenkins, Brian Finneran, Chandler Williams, Aaron Kelly (rc)
TE-Tony Gonzalez, Justin Peelle, Ben Hartsock, Jason Rader, Keith Zinger
K-Jason Elam
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
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Sept. 13
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Miami
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1:00
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Sept. 20
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Carolina
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1:00
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Sept. 27
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at New England
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1:00
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Oct. 4
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BYE
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Oct. 11
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at San Francisco
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4:05
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Oct. 18
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Chicago
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8:20
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Oct. 25
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at Dallas
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4:15
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Nov. 2
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at New Orleans
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8:30
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Nov. 8
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Washington
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1:00
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Nov. 15
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at Carolina
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1:00
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Nov. 22
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at NY Giants
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1:00
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Nov. 29
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Tampa Bay
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1:00
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Dec. 6
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Philadelphia
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1:00
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Dec. 13
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New Orleans
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1:00
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Dec. 20
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at NY Jets
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1:00
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Dec. 27
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Buffalo
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1:00
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Jan. 3
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at Tampa Bay
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1:00
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Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-4th (150-105)
Passing-9th-208.1 yards allowed per game
Rushing-2nd-108 yards allowed per game
2008 Target Percentages: (See Insider Central for detailed week by week)
| 2008 Atlanta Falcons Percentages |
| Total Passes |
434 |
44% |
|
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| Total Rushes |
560 |
56% |
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| Total Plays |
994 |
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Target |
% |
|
Rec |
Yrds |
TD |
| Roddy White |
148 |
34% |
|
88 |
1382 |
7 |
| Michael Jenkins |
81 |
19% |
|
50 |
777 |
3 |
| Jerious Norwood |
54 |
12% |
|
36 |
338 |
2 |
| Harry Douglas |
39 |
9% |
|
23 |
320 |
1 |
| Brian Finneran |
36 |
8% |
|
21 |
169 |
1 |
| Justin Peelle |
23 |
5% |
|
15 |
159 |
2 |
| Ovie Mughelli |
10 |
2% |
|
8 |
57 |
0 |
| Jason Snelling |
10 |
2% |
|
8 |
89 |
0 |
| Thrown Away |
10 |
2% |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Michael Turner |
9 |
2% |
|
6 |
41 |
0 |
| Laurent Robinson |
6 |
1% |
|
5 |
52 |
0 |
| Ben Hartsock |
6 |
1% |
|
3 |
26 |
0 |
| Jason Rader |
1 |
0% |
|
1 |
26 |
0 |
| Eric Weems |
1 |
0% |
|
1 |
4 |
0 |
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| Totals |
434 |
100% |
|
265 |
3440 |
16 |
News and notes:
Few teams have their skill-position roles as cemented as the Falcons do. Matt Ryan proved he was worth all of the hype last season and appears ready to join the fantasy elite, maybe not this season, but he's on the fast track. I still would not be surprised if Ryan is a top 10 quarterback.
Michael Turner had a magical season in 2008 and unless you believe in the “370 curse” there is no reason he should not be one of the first five players drafted in your fantasy draft. Jerious Norwood continues to be more than just a capable handcuff option and he has benefit in the receiving game. He would be a number two fantasy option should Turner get injured. Jason Snelling’s only value would be if either of the above go down and even then it would be limited.
Roddy White proved last season that his 2007 numbers were no fluke and he is a number one receiver worthy of a top 10 pick. Michael Jenkins will again start opposite White but his value remains limited in my eyes. I would rather take a chance on sleeper Harry Douglas who has much more upside at this point. Brian Finneran is another year removed from injury but he is nothing more than a fifth or sixth option for the Falcons.
Tony Gonzalez will have a typical Gonzo season and should make everybody around him even better.
Jason Elam is a number one fantasy option. There just is not much going on with the Falcons. No real injury concerns or camp battles. What you see is what you get with the birds in 2009.
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IDP & DEFENSIVE NOTES
By Jon Rascon
Base defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Keith Brooking (102), Eric Coleman (95), Curtis Lofton (94)
Sacks: John Abraham (16.5), Chauncey Davis (4), Jonathan Babineaux (3.5)
Interceptions: Coleman (3), Chris Houston (2), 5 with 1
Ascending: Curtis Lofton. Could become fantasy sleeper gold in 2009.
Descending: Mike Peterson. Still viable option, but diminishing returns likely.
Notes:
The Falcons made a surprising run to the playoffs last year, where they fell to the eventual NFC champions Arizona Cardinals. They then got busy in the offseason, upgrading at several key positions on the defense.
The defensive line got a major boost when the Falcons drafted defensive tackle Peria Jerry in the first round. It’s likely that Jerry will have only a minimal impact fantasywise himself, but his eventual presence should help defensive end John Abraham get some favorable one-on-one matchups. Last year, Abraham notched 16.5 sacks. While duplicating that number might take some doing, double digits sacks in 2009 doesn’t seem like an unreasonable expectation. This year is a make or break year for the other defensive end, Jamaal Anderson. At this point, only Abraham is a viable fantasy option, unless Anderson shows up during the preseason. Rookie Lawrence Sidbury will likely need a year to acclimate himself to the NFL before becoming a fantasy option.
Mike Peterson comes to Atlanta from Jacksonville, where he reunites with Coach Mike Smith. Peterson will shift positions this year, moving from middle linebacker to the strongside linebacker. His stat line will probably take a little dip from his usual career averages, but I think Peterson is still worth keeping tabs on this year. The middle is manned by sophomore Curtis Lofton, who showed plenty of promise in his rookie season with 94 combined tackles. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lofton become one of the better fantasy linebackers with 120-plus tackles sooner rather than later. Lofton could present tremendous value as many “name” linebackers will likely be chosen before him. The weakside linebacker spot is up for grabs, but with Lofton and Peterson slated to get the lion’s share of the tackle opportunities, the winner of said position battle will likely have a minimal impact fantasy-wise and should only be considered in the deepest leagues.
Defensive backs will likely be the Falcon’s biggest question marks in 2009, as Von Hutchins returns after missing all of 2008. It will be interesting to see if Hutchins can recapture the momentum he had coming into 2008. Erik Coleman and rookie William Moore should each be viable defensive back options, with a nod towards Coleman for this year. Chris Houston will likely man the other cornerback spot, but I don’t see him being a fantasy factor.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE NEWS & NOTES
by Chris Graley
The Falcons really surprised me last year. LT Sam Baker played like a 1st rounder and was an immediate upgrade. He's got to stay healthy though. Justin Blaylock played much better at LG than he ever did at tackle. Todd McClure had his best season last year and is a more than solid in the middle and deserves some Pro bowl attention. Dahl solidifies the RG spot but is just above average. Tyson Clabo has proven he deserves the RT job by nastiness alone. I expect improvement in both running and passing as the team has a full season of the new system under it's belt. They were a top 5 line last year, so any improvement should put them in the top 3.
Preliminary upgrade Atlanta's o-line slightly in both the running and the passing game due to natural 2nd year growth.
Position-by-position grades with pass/run blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P)
by Stan Feldman
Undervalued: RB Michael Turner. It’s hard to call a player being taken among the first three players underrated, but it’s also hard to imagine what owners prefer in second-year back Matt Forte, who is being selected after unrivaled top pick Adrian Peterson. Forte offers tremendous value in PPR leagues, but Turner, who led the NFL in carries last season and finished second in FFP at the position, is a touchdown machine without any competition for goal-line carries. Given Peterson’s injury history, the case could be made for Turner as fantasy’s most valuable back, but to see that he has fallen as low as sixth in some drafts is bizarre.
Overvalued: QB Matt Ryan. Atlanta’s offense revolves around Turner, and the team will continue to use him to score their touchdowns and set up the pass until his legs fall off. Ryan is a future fantasy stud, but he probably won’t approach the 500-attempt plateau that is usually required to reach elite status. Ryan is the tenth quarterback taken in the average draft, meaning owners are expecting him to be a viable weekly starter for their teams; that’s simply not going to happen. Quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub are better immediate options, or owners could wait another couple of rounds to roll the dice on Matt Cassel or Carson Palmer.
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FALCONS BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
Q: So I learned above that all of the "fantasy-relevant" Falcons return in 2009. I can pretty much expect similar stats across the board?
A: You might seriously start questioning my sanity here. But we haven't come this far and charged you good money for some regurgitated group-think. So I'll just lob it out there. I'm concerned about Michael Turner's ability to repeat. No...more than that. I'm concerned about his ability to finish among the top 12 RB's. And I'm fully willing to admit up front that my defense for the above is flimsy at best.
As you've heard me say before - every year I encounter a few situations that make my tail twitch for no good reason at all. And unlike many, I'm willing to play the fool because (ahem - I've been right more often than not over the past 15 years). So file this one under trusting my twitch.
We're looking at a Falcons squad here where it ALL fell perfectly into place last year. The entire offensive line remained healthy and, as Graley stated above, performed well above expectations. HC Mike Smith and staff did a masterful job of buffering Matt Ryan from thinking too much as a rookie. With the exception of the Ravens, no other team had more rushing attempts than Atlanta. Seventeen QB's had more attempts than Ryan and 15 had more touchdowns.
So what's all of this got to do with Michael Turner? Balance. In the Not For Long league, one trick ponies tend to die quickly. And I wouldn't be as concerned if Turner had some receiving targets to compliment the 376 hard-nosed, between the tackles attempts he had in 2008. To say opponents will be keying on the run this year is an understatement.
That's it. I know...flimsy. But those ar my honest thoughts on the matter.