Years ago, if you weren’t fortunate enough to grab Tony Gonzalez in your draft, the tight end position was considered to be a complete afterthought in fantasy football; as there weren’t too many other reliable options available... 

However, since then,  NFL teams have changed, placing more emphasis on tight ends in their offensive schemes and fantasy players have benefitted.  Besides Gonzo (still going strong at 33), San Diego’s Antonio Gates and Dallas’ Jason Witten have emerged as elite options.  There’s also a group of “H-back” type players like Indianapolis’ Dallas Clark and Washington’s Chris Cooley.  These players are like larger wide receivers, too fast for linebackers to contend with and too powerful to be covered by cornerbacks.  This bunch now has a new member to add: Dustin Keller of the New York Jets.
 

Gang Green was so enamored of Keller’s talents (an impressive amalgam of speed, agility, power and leaping ability) that they traded with the Green Bay Packers to obtain the 30th spot in the 2008 Draft to ensure they got their man. 
 

Keller had an excellent first year in the league.  His 48 receptions were second among all rookie tight ends (behind Seattle’s John Carlson) and he also recorded 535 receiving yards.  His three receiving touchdowns were third best on the Jets.
 

A large part of his success can be attributed to former Jets quarterback Brett Favre.  The legendary signal-caller has often forged excellent chemistry with his tight ends throughout his playing career and Keller was no exception to that rule.  The two hooked up for four or more receptions in a game on six occasions last season.  However, Favre is now gone, likely to pop up in a Vikings uniform soon.  So what does this season hold for Keller?
 

While some fantasy players might believe Keller will take a giant step forward, I’m a bit more conservative in my estimation.  He’s too good not to improve, but there will be some factors going against him.
 

For one thing, new coach Rex Ryan wants to instill a ball-control offense that relies heavily on the running game.  Last season, the Baltimore Ravens (Ryan’s former club) ran the ball a league-leading 592 times as they attempted to minimize the amount of pressure on rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.  Ravens’ tight ends only accounted for 40 total receptions.  Contrast this with the team’s 2007 numbers: Baltimore ran the ball only 446 times and their tight ends notched a total of 63 catches.
 

As the Jets will likely be using Mark Sanchez as their quarterback (if not by Opening Day, then certainly at some point in the season), the Ravens blueprint above is even more apt.  The Jets have a three member backfield with a similar skill set to the one the Ravens employed, so it stands to reason they will follow that game plan.  So, Keller will see fewer opportunities.
 

Also, in the proposed offensive scheme, the tight end is required to block for the running game.  The Jets lost road-grader Chris Baker to New England in free agency, so Keller will have to assume some of that load.  Newly resigned Bubba Franks is larger and is a better blocker, so Keller may not see as much time on the field.
 

On the plus side of things, Keller now has more experience and his catching ability should be improved.  He caught 61% of all balls thrown to him last season, so he’ll likely exceed that with better technique.  Therefore, even if he sees fewer targets, he should produce just as well (if not a little better) than he did during his rookie campaign.
 

Keller should be a low-level TE1 or a very good TE2 for fantasy purposes.  He should still be available in the later rounds of your draft.

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