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LIONS BREAKDOWN
by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: Keary Colbert (WR), Rudi Johnson (RB)
Gains: Ronald Curry (WR), Will Heller (TE), Bryant Johnson (WR), Maurice Morris (RB), Terrelle Smith (FB), Dennis Northcutt (WR)
Losses: Brian Calhoun (RB), Dan Campbell (TE), Mike Furrey (WR), Michael Gaines (TE), Drew Henson (QB), Shaun McDonald (WR), Dan Orlovsky (QB), John Owens (TE), Travis Taylor (WR), Jon Bradley (FB)
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
First Rd-Matthew Stafford (QB) Georgia
First Rd-Brandon Pettigrew (TE) Oklahoma State
Third Rd-Derrick Williams (WR) Penn State
Sixth Rd-Aaron Brown (RB) TCU
Seventh Rd-Dan Gronkowski (TE) Maryland
Depth Chart: (updated 6/28/09)
QB-Daunte Culpepper, Matthew Stafford (rc), Drew Stanton
RB-Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, Aaron Brown (rc), Aveion Cason, Allen Ervin,
Antone Smith (rc)
FB-Terrelle Smith, Jerome Felton
WR1-Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, Derrick Williams (rc), Keary Colbert, John Standeford, Adam Jennings
WR2-Calvin Johnson, Ronald Curry, Eric Fowler, Chris Hannon, Demir "D.J." Boldin (rc), Tommy Saunders (rc)
TE-Brandon Pettigrew (rc), Will Heller, Casey Fitzsimmons, Jake Nordin, Sean Conover (rc), Dan Gronkowski (rc)
K-Jason Hanson, Swayze Waters (rc)
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
Sept. 13 at New Orleans 1:00
Sept. 20 Minnesota 1:00
Sept. 27 Washington 1:00
Oct. 4 at Chicago 1:00
Oct. 11 Pittsburgh 1:00
Oct. 18 at Green Bay 1:00
Oct. 25 BYE
Nov. 1 St. Louis 1:00
Nov. 8 at Seattle 4:05
Nov. 15 at Minnesota 1:00
Nov. 22 Cleveland 1:00
Nov. 26 Green Bay 12:30
Dec. 6 at Cincinnati 1:00
Dec. 13 at Baltimore 1:00
Dec. 20 Arizona 1:00
Dec. 27 at San Francisco 4:05
Jan. 3 Chicago 1:00
Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-21st (119-136)
Passing-20th-212.4 yards allowed per game
Rushing-3rd-108.3 yards allowed per game
News and notes:
For a team that went 0-16, the Lions offense looks respectable on paper, which is good because they are going to have to put up many points if they are going to win some game(s) this season. The Lions took Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the first pick of the NFL draft and he will compete with Daunte Culpepper for the starting job in 2009. Defensive End Eric Hicks had this to say about Stafford, "So far, he's more than lived up to the hype-he's been very impressive." Stafford said "It helps that we did a lot of the same things at Georgia, so as long as I understand the play, I usually get the underlying concepts." According to the Lions, both Culpepper and likely third stringer Drew Stanton have both improved dramatically since Stafford's arrival. Watch the battle closely in camp. Right now, we believe Stafford has the early advantage but the Lions may decide that a more fit and slimmer Culpepper is a better option than risking injury to their future star behind a subpar offensive line. Whichever quarterback wins the job they will not be better than a middle of the road number two fantasy guy this season.
Kevin Smith continues to improve and has excellent number two fantasy value. Newly acquired Maurice Morris will be a nice change-of-pace guy, but his value is minimal as long as Smith is going strong.
Calvin Johnson will once again be one of the first receivers off the board and rightfully so. The number two-spot is up for grabs between newly acquired Bryant Johnson, Ronald Curry, and rookie Derrick Williams. Our money is on Johnson at this point although we love the potential of Williams. This is a battle to watch closely in the pre-season as the second receiver in this offense has possible fourth receiver value with upside. At this point, no other receiver on the roster has any shot of having fantasy value this season...or any time soon.
The Lions drafted Brandon Pettigrew out of Oklahoma State with their second first round pick and they expect big things from him. We are not as high on him from a fantasy perspective and look for him to stay in and block a majority of the time. His value comes to fruition down the road.
Jason Hanson continues to impress with a monster leg that makes him more valuable in leagues that reward bonus points for kicks over 50 yards.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Primary Defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Paris Lenon (121), Ernie Sims (113), Daniel Bullucks (94)
Sacks: DeWayne White (6.5), Cliff Avril (5), Cory Redding (3)
Interceptions: 3 players with 1???
Ascending: Jordan Dizon - Needs to establish himself at MLB first.
Descending: Julian Peterson - Getting a little long in the tooth, although he appears to be solid for this year.
Notes:
Ernie Sims leads the Lions defense. Sims once again posted over 100 combined tackles, making him a relatively "safe" number one option for your defense, especially if you wait until after the top tier linebackers are off the board. He will have better surrounding talent in 2009, as Julian Peterson comes over from Seattle to solidify the strong side. Currently, the middle linebacker is up for grabs between Jordan Dizon and free agent acquisition Larry Foote. Dizon enters his second season in the league, and while he may have more upside at this point in time, don't be surprised if Foote starts this season and Dizon continues his apprenticeship.
The defensive line doesn't have a lot of exciting fantasy players, but Dewayne White is someone to keep in mind if you need a defensive lineman late in the draft. White was off to a good start in 2008 before injuries halted his momentum.
The defensive backfield is going through a transition period right now, as the Lions could start 3 or even 4 newcomers in 2009. Phillip Buchanon and Travis Fisher are the favorites to hold down the cornerback spots, and it seems like it's just a matter of time before rookie Louis Delmas finds himself in the starting lineup. Right now, Daniel Bullocks is slated to start alongside Delmas, but there are rumblings that Bullocks may not be the starter come opening day. Until things settle down, the Lions defensive backfield should only be looked at in the deepest of leagues.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
The Lions did little to upgrade the o-line this year. There has been a little talk of moving Backus to Guard, but I don't see it happening unless Loper can show he can play LT. Backus has underachieved his expectations, since he's been drafted in 2001. He's average, but not the Stud LT that the Lions thought they were getting (and paying for). Loper has never started a regular season game in his career and he's being expected to start at LG or LT for the Lions this year. I haven't seen enough of him to know if that's a stretch or not, but I'm guessing that it is. Dominic Raiola is solid at Center. He's small, but he makes up for it by being smart and nasty. Peterman should get the start at RG, is small and tenacious as well, but he lacks the smarts of Raiola, and gets overpowered. Godser Cherilus flashes potential, but makes too many mental errors. I'm expecting improvement from him this year, but he has a lot of work to do. There's not much depth on the roster. Cook is a versitile back-up that can play anywhere. Ramirez is a project and the other guys are busts from other teams.
Position-by-position grades with rush/pass blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P.)
by Stan Feldman
Watch: RB Kevin Smith.
He's a chic pick this season, and while it's unlikely he becomes a world-beater, Smith brings a lot to the table. He gets plenty of attention in PPR leagues for his versatility, but owners in traditional formats need only know that he carried the ball twenty or more times in six of the team's last eight games to be reassured that he is the established starter in this backfield despite the acquisition of running back Maurice Morris.
Avoid: WR Calvin Johnson.
There isn't anything more that can be said about Johnson's unique combination of size and athleticism; the same goes for his production last season. Simply stated, he is a uniquely superior talent. He is not, however, a value pick in the mid-second round, where his average draft position currently places him. Owners would be better served looking elsewhere at that price.
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BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
I debated about addressing Calvin but is there really anyone left that needs to be sold? I thought about addressing the fact that Kevin Smith might be one of the sneakier #2 RB's in your draft but Stan stole my thunder. So let's talk about a position that many are all but scratching off of thier cheatsheets this year:
Q: Who is the Lions leading QB by season's end and why should I care?
Both Daunte Culpepper and wonder rookie Matt Stafford have solid arguments for. Stafford has the big name as well as the fact that he had absolutely nothing to do with the stigma of 0-16. That's a stench that will be forever attached to this franchise. Do not underestimate the desire to turn that page as quickly as possible.
But I have a hunch the name to keep an eye on here is Daunte. Believe it or not. Now a full three years removed from a gnarly knee injury where he shredded 3 of the 4 major ligaments (ACL, PCL, MCL), he's been looking sharp in camp. I've managed to dig up brief video footage of C-Pep from an April Minicamp and the dude looks trim. Compliments of (I shit you not) WOOD-TV, channel 8 in Grand Rapids.
Now for the second part of the question; why should you care? For starters, as we've already touched on above, this certainly isn't an offense devoid of weapons. This staff have hopefully learned from 2008's trangressions and realize they need to lean on Kevin Smith early. Let's also not discount the addition of talented rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew if he can pick up the offense early.
To be clear, I'm not talking about even your backup fantasy QB here. But if your league allows you to roster 3-4 QB's, I could see a scenario where Culpepper gave your #2 QB a run for his money.
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