by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: None
Gains: Joel Filani (WR), Byron Leftwhich (QB), Kellen Winslow (TE), Mike Nugent (K), Derrick Ward (RB), Kelly Campbell (WR)
Losses: Joey Galloway (WR), Jeff Garcia (QB), Chris Simms (QB), Byron Storer (FB-placed on IR), Anthony Mix (WR), Paris Warren (WR), Warrick Dunn (RB), Ike Hillard (WR), Alex Smith (TE)
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
1st Rd-Josh Freeman (QB) Kansas State
7th Rd-Sammie Stroughter (WR) Oregon State
Depth Chart: (updated 7/5/09)
QB- Byron Leftwhich, Luke McCown, Josh Freeman (rc), Josh Johnson, Brian Griese
RB-Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, Cadillac Williams, Clifton Smith, Josh Vaughn (rc), Kareem Huggins (rc)
FB-Jameel Cook, B.J. Askew
WR1-Michael Clayton, Sammie Stroughter (rc), Brian Clark, Kelly Campbell, Joel Filani
WR2-Antonio Bryant, Maurice Stovall, Dexter Jackson, Cortez Hankton, Patrick Carter (rc)
TE-Kellen Winslow, Jerramy Stevens, John Gilmore, Jason Pociask, Ryan Purvis (rc)
K-Matt Bryant, Mike Nugent
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-Byron Storer (fb)
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
|
Sept. 13
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Dallas
|
1:00
|
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Sept. 20
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at Buffalo
|
4:05
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Sept. 27
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NY Giants
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1:00
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Oct. 4
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at Washington
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1:00
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Oct. 11
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at Philadelphia
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1:00
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Oct. 18
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Carolina
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1:00
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Oct. 25
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vs. New England (London)
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1:00
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Nov. 1
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BYE
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|
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Nov. 8
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Green Bay
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1:00
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Nov. 15
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at Miami
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1:00
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Nov. 22
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New Orleans
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1:00
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Nov. 29
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at Atlanta
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1:00
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Dec. 6
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at Carolina
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1:00
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Dec. 13
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NY Jets
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1:00
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Dec. 20
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at Seattle
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4:15
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Dec. 27
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at New Orleans
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1:00
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Jan. 3
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Atlanta
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1:00
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Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-5th (148-107)
Passing-19th-212.3 yards allowed per game
Rushing-9th-112.3 yards allowed per game
2008 Target Percentages: (See Insider Central for detailed week by week)
| 2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Percentages |
| Total Passes |
562 |
55% |
|
|
|
|
| Total Rushes |
451 |
45% |
|
|
|
|
| Total Plays |
1013 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Target |
% |
|
Rec |
Yrds |
TD |
| Antonio Bryant |
137 |
24% |
|
83 |
1248 |
7 |
| Warrick Dunn |
68 |
12% |
|
47 |
330 |
0 |
| Michael Clayton |
61 |
11% |
|
38 |
484 |
1 |
| Ike Hilliard |
58 |
10% |
|
47 |
424 |
4 |
| Jerramy Stevens |
58 |
10% |
|
36 |
397 |
2 |
| Alex Smith |
38 |
7% |
|
21 |
250 |
3 |
| Earnest Graham |
33 |
6% |
|
23 |
147 |
0 |
| Joey Galloway |
28 |
5% |
|
13 |
138 |
0 |
| John Gilmore |
22 |
4% |
|
15 |
147 |
1 |
| B.J. Askew |
18 |
3% |
|
13 |
66 |
0 |
| Thrown Away |
13 |
2% |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Maurice Stovall |
8 |
1% |
|
3 |
25 |
0 |
| Cadillac Williams |
7 |
1% |
|
7 |
43 |
0 |
| Clifton Smith |
5 |
1% |
|
4 |
24 |
0 |
| Jameel Cook |
5 |
1% |
|
3 |
24 |
0 |
| Brian Clark |
2 |
0% |
|
1 |
12 |
0 |
| Michael Bennett |
1 |
0% |
|
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Totals |
562 |
100% |
|
355 |
3761 |
18 |
News and notes:
The Buccaneers have all sorts of questions that will not be answered until training camp and the pre-season and I've been around this game long enough to know that could present some undervalued names at your draft. This includes who will be the starting quarterback in 2009. Ask 10 people, five will say Byron Leftwhich and the other five will say Luke McCown while most agree that the future is in Josh Freeman’s hands. I am a Leftwhich guy but honestly I am not seeing any fantasy value from any of them this season.
At running back, the Bucs brought in former Giants back Derrick Ward to replace Earnest Graham as the feature back this season. Ward is a quality back who looks to be a high number three or low number two guy. Graham will battle a healthy Cadillac Williams as Ward’s primary backup. Graham likely wins that job but I would take a late flyer on Williams just in case he shows any semblance of his former self.
Antonio Bryant came out of nowhere, literally, last season to be arguably the biggest surprise of the season. It is easy to call last season a fluke and throw him at the top of your bust list but to quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.” Bryant put up big numbers with an old man at quarterback (Jeff Garcia) and minimal receiver help. He is big, strong, fast, is in his prime, and appears to have his head on straight; another season of big numbers would not surprise me one bit. The question is who starts on the opposite side and in the slot for the Bucs. Michael Clayton looks to be the leading candidate again but since overachieving during his rookie season he has been subpar at best. Maurice Stovall continues to underachieve and has little to offer at this point. The guy I really like his seventh round pick Sammie Stroughter out of Oregon State. He has impressed coaches and has a good shot to start out the season as the Bucs third receiver with the possibility of overtaking Clayton at some point. “Stroughter’s been one of the pleasant surprises of camp,” coach Raheem Morris said. “You talk about mentally tough, talk about a guy who can go inside and make plays and get vertical, he’s impressive, I like everything about him.” Offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is raving about Stroughter’s ability to be a slot receiver. He has been lining up with the first team in practice and even Michael Clayton is praising him. “The guy has great feet. He’s caught every ball that’s touched his hands. He’s a natural hand-catcher. He snatches it. He’s a smart guy who’s caught onto the offense really well.”
Newly acquired Kellen Winslow should be the Bucs real number two receiver this season and if they use him the way they should Winslow has the possibility of being a top five tight end but as of right now he remains a risky number one based on the Buccaneers offensive situation and his health. Jerramy Stevens will again be in his “screw ya” role where he takes away fantasy points here and there but the second you pick him up he’s done, just the way his career has gone.
There is even a battle at kicker with Matt Bryant and Mike Nugent fighting for the right to be a non-draftable fantasy kicker. You have to think if the Bucs really liked Bryant they would not have brought Nugent so the early money is on him but again I do not look for either one of them to have any fantasy value this season.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Base defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Barrett Ruud (137), Ronde Barber (75), Derrick Brooks (73)
Sacks: Gaines Adams (6.5), Stylez White and Jimmy Wilkerson (5)
Interceptions: Aqib Talib and Barber (4), Jermaine Phillips (3)
Ascending: Jermaine Phillips. Switching positions, so risk is there. But reward too.
Descending: Ronde Barber. Has had very solid career, but is nearing end.
Notes:
The Buccaneers look like a team in transition, but they do have a couple of very useful fantasy options on defense. The defensive line is headed up by defensive end Gaines Adams. Adams has shown flashes of brilliance in his two years in the league, but he has also been plagued by a lack of any consistency. He needs to step up in 2009. Adams will likely be available at the tail end of your draft, and the rest of the line should be available via the waiver wire.
The linebackers are now led by Barrett Ruud, who was nice in 2008, to the tune of 137 combined tackles. With so many question marks regarding the offense, it’s not unreasonable to think Ruud doesn’t rack up similar stats in 2009. He’ll be flanked by a couple new additions, Angelo Crowell and Jermaine Phillips. Phillips isn’t new to Tampa Bay, but he is attempting to switch over to linebacker after starting out as a safety. Crowell comes to the Bucs from the Bills, and both Crowell and Phillips will likely make for good sleeper material, and especially Phillips if he wins the weak side slot, as that position was very good from a fantasy standpoint, to Derrick Brooks for many years.
Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber might be the best known of the defensive backs, but I believe Tanard Jackson is the guy with the most upside. Jackson had 69 combined tackles last year, but he will have every opportunity to approach 80-90 combined tackles in 2009. The Bucs are also high on Sabby Piscitelli, but you can definitely take a wait and see approach with him on draft day.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
This group is young and talented and will be adjusting to a new offensive system. I think the commitment to the running game will help these young guys. LT Donald Penn is never gonna be an elite player, but he's solid and could have a long career as an LT. Arron Sears is a tenacious monster! Jeff Faine is more of a pass blocker and may be exposed a little in the commitment to the run. RG Davin Joseph is emerging as an exceptional player. RT Jeremy Trueblood flashes elite potential at times, but at other times looks lost. He needs a coach in his ear constantly at practice, but if he puts everything together, he can be an elite player.
Position-by-position grades with pass/run blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P)
by Stan Feldman
Undervalued: QB Byron Leftwich. Leftwich is going undrafted in most leagues, which isn’t particularly surprising given his underwhelming history, but the Buccaneers’ acquisition of the big right-hander as well as Pro Bowl tight end Kellen Winslow signals a new commitment to the passing game in Tampa. While Leftwich almost certainly won’t crack the top-ten among passers, it’s worth noting that this will be the most dynamic group of receivers with whom he has yet played and should provide solid matchup value as a backup.
Overvalued: TE Kellen Winslow. Winslow has left a bad situation in Cleveland and will easily be an elite tight end again as long as he stays healthy. He won’t, however, reach the heights that other ends like Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark should, meaning his value is closer to a high No. 3 than a legitimate No. 2 receiver. Owners can get better value by waiting for Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels or a young up-and-comer like John Carlson.
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BUCCANEERS BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
Q: With so much uncertainty up and down the Bucs depth chart, who represents the most value at my fantasy draft?
A: Let's start with what I believe to be true and eliminate candidates from there. Jeff Garcia was old and didn't have much of an arm left, but he played the caretaker role to perfection in '08 with a 64.9% completion rate. For reference, only eight QB's outpaced Garcia in that category. (Personal note: Matt Schaub and Trent Edwards were two of them. Hmm, Trent Edwards huh? Better dig deeper on that for the Bills breakdown). I digress. Needless to say, Leftwhich or McCown - whichever direction they go it's a step back.
In the passing game, we have the underrated addition of Kellen Winslow. I believe Leftwhich wins the job and Winslow will help him at least "hold serve" on his underwhelming 58.6 career completion percentage and 1.17 touchdowns per game started. Nothing we don't already know from a fantasy perspective. Possibly Antonio Bryant. Dude had a monster December, but the loss of Garcia's accuracy and decision making leaves me thinking he current ADP (5.11 - 23 WR overall) sounds about right.
In my eyes, the wildcard is the Bucs running game and the name I'm keying on is Derrick Ward. This offseason he steps out from under Brandon Jacobs' ample shadow in New York and takes his wares to Tampa. At 5-11, 228 lbs. - Ward's 5.1 career yards per rush might be ready to cast a shadow of it's own. His current A.D.P. (5.05 - 25th RB overall) is entirely too low. His value is being held in check for fear of the unknown. Let's be honest, he's never done it. But Ward's career path reminds my a certain RB over in Atlanta who had never "done it" either. 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns later, people were left wishing they'd taken a leap of faith.
I'm not saying 1,700 and 17 are in store, but Ward just might be your 2nd chance to take that leap.