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BREAKING DOWN THE VIKINGS
by Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: None
Gains:
Sage Rosenfels (QB), Glenn Holt (WR), Taylor Melhaff (K), Nehemiah Broughton (FB)
Losses: Gus Frerotte (QB), Maurice Hicks (RB)
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
First Rd-Percy Harvin (WR) Florida
Depth Chart: (updated 6/25/09)
QB-Sage Rosenfels, Tarvaris Jackson, John David Booty
RB-Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, Kahlil Bell (rc), Ian Johnson (rc), Albert Young
FB-Naufahu Tahi, Jeff Dugan, Nehemiah Broughton
WR1-Sidney Rice, Bobby Wade, Aundrae Allison, Nick Moore (rc), Bobby Williams (rc)
WR2-Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin (rc), Glenn Holt, Darius Reynaud, Jaymar Johnson
TE-Visanthe Shiancoe, Jim Kleinsasser, Garrett Mills, Jeff Dugan
K-Ryan Longwell, Taylor Melhaff
Notes: The following players have been placed on IR-
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
Sept. 13 at Cleveland 1:00
Sept. 20 at Detroit 1:00
Sept. 27 San Francisco 1:00
Oct. 5 Green Bay 8:30
Oct. 11 at St. Louis 1:00
Oct. 18 Baltimore 1:00
Oct. 25 at Pittsburgh 1:00
Nov. 1 at Green Bay 1:00
Nov. 8 BYE
Nov. 15 Detroit 1:00
Nov. 22 Seattle 1:00
Nov. 29 Chicago 1:00
Dec. 6 at Arizona 5:15
Dec. 13 Cincinnati 1:00
Dec. 20 at Carolina 8:20
Dec. 28 at Chicago 8:30
Jan. 3 NY Giants 1:00
Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-31st (107-148)
Passing-18th-211.2 yards allowed per game
Rushing-21st-117 yards allowed per game
News and notes:
The Vikings brought in Sage Rosenfels to compete with Tarvaris Jackson and (at the time) likely win the starting quarterback role. We expected Rosenfels to win the job and to have high #2 fantasy value. The above may be mute as the Vikings look very close to signing Brett Favre. At this point we fully expect Favre to be the week one starter for the Vikings and he is a solid number two fantasy quarterback. The presence of Favre increases the receiver's value across the board.
Adrian Peterson will again be the Vikings first option and the likely number one pick in most fantasy drafts. A.P. could be better than ever. According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, he looks to be more focused coming into the 2009 season. "Through the past two or three years, I've had the experience of doing too much and not really being able to dedicate the time I would like to working out and preparing myself," Peterson said. "I've really cut back a lot this year. I have more time to study film and really just focus on the most important things that make those things possible off the field. Get my body prepared." Chester Taylor is back for another year of changing the pace and is a valuable asset for the Vikings. A nice number three fantasy option and a sleeping pill for Peterson owners. He has been working with Percy Harvin and Darius Reynaud in the "Wildcat" formation.
Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian look to be the top two receivers again for the Vikings this season. Berrian would benefit the most by having Favre on the field. Rookie Harvin out of Florida is the wildcard sleeper who has the potential to lineup anywhere on the field and has the potential to be something special. He is a risky pick in re-draft leagues, but should be taken high in dynasty formats simply based on his athletic ability. He feels like an all or nothing type of guy. Even Rice thinks a lot of Harvin, saying on his blog "Yes, we're competing for the same position, but we're teammates so I want to help him along so he can do his best and help us win games. Anything he needs, I'm going to be there for him. Having someone look out for you when you come into the league is a big help. I had Troy Williamson, Robert Ferguson, and Bobby Wade." Bobby Wade will continue to be a boring third or fourth receiver with minimal value and even less upside. Aundrae Allison and newly acquired Glenn Holt will battle for the fifth spot and with Allison's speed, he could be a deep, deep sleeper.
Visanthe Shiancoe had a career year last season that he will be hard pressed to match. Nobody would benefit more from Favre as the starting quarterback.
We would not hesitate to put Shiancoe as a number one tight end with the Hall-of-Famer under center.
Ryan Longwell has been up and down over the past few years but he should again be a top tier fantasy kicker as he was last season.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Base defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Chad Greenway (115), Antoine Winfield (95), Cedric Griffin (91)
Sacks: Jared Allen (14.5), Kevin Williams (8.5), Greenway (5.5)
Interceptions: Winfield, Ben Leber, Madieu Williams and Benny Sapp (2)
Ascending: Chad Greenway - Is still improving and could have a monster year.
Descending: Antoine Winfield - Not knocking his potential this year, but he is now on the wrong side of 30.
Notes:
The Vikings are one of my favorite teams from an IDP perspective, as there are starting options up and down this defense. On the defensive line, Jared Allen brings the hammer. Allen battled an assortment of lingering injuries in 2008, but still managed to put up 14.5 sacks. He may take a few weeks to hit his stride in 2008, but watch out after that. Allen is in his prime and big numbers could be in store. Kevin Williams is one of the few defensive tackles that can accumulate sacks and tackles, but he is looking at a suspension to start the year. I would only draft him as a defensive lineman if defensive tackle was a position.
Chad Greenway heads the linebacker crew. Last year, Greenway had 115 combined tackles along with 5.5 sacks. This year, I expect similar numbers from him, with maybe a slight bump in sacks. EJ Henderson looks to return this year after suffering a season ending injury in 2008. If healthy, Henderson could be another late round value pick.
The Vikings defensive backfield could yield 3 or 4 fantasy starters to varying degrees in 2009. Cornerbacks Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield are as steady as they come, and both racked up respectable tackle numbers from the cornerback position. Safety Madieu Williams contributed 42 combined tackles in 9 games last year, and I expect him to reestablish himself as a bona fide fantasy starter in 2009. The mystery guy will be second year man Tyrell Johnson, who the Vikings hope can improve on his somewhat disappointing rookie season. At this time, Johnson is the man to shy away from for fantasy purposes, but keep in mind that he also possesses the biggest upside of any player on the Vikings defense.
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VERY PRELIMINARY O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson man one of the best left sides in football. McKinnie still struggles with the zone blocking schemes though, like I said he would last year. I blame the coaches for not picking a blocking scheme that suits their players. John Sullivan has big shoes to fill stepping into Matt Birk's spot at Center. I've like what I've seen though, and although he'll have growing pains, I think he'll be a good replacement. Herrera is an above average RG that is better in the run game. I think Phil Loadholt takes Ryan Cook's job at RT this year. The 343 lb monster will create huge running lanes on the right side. Cook and Artis Hicks provide the only depth for the line. Hopefully the coaches realize that this is the year to dump the zone blocking and turn these road graders loose! There is a lot of tonnage on this line getting wasted in the zone scheme.
Position-by-position grades and run/pass blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYER TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P.)
by Stan Feldman
Watch: WR Bernard Berrian.
Assuming the Vikings ultimately bring quarterback Brett Favre to Minnesota (which seems more and more likely given the surgery and recent visits, etc.), wide receiver Bernard Berrian looks to be a solid value. Berrian's ADP places him at the end of the seventh round, near second-tier tight ends like Chris Cooley and Owen Daniels and shaky receiving options such as Donnie Avery and Jerricho Cotchery. Berrian's speed, illustrated by his 20.1 YPC, will go nicely with Favre's big arm and Minnesota's dominant running game, making him an attractive option in the middle rounds.
Avoid: WR Percy Harvin.
The track record for Florida receivers has been widely publicized, and Harvin has as good a chance as any to dismiss that presumption; it just won't be this season. The Vikings have two talented wideouts in Berrian and Bobby Wade and aren't ready to give up on third-year receiver Sidney Rice just yet. That means Harvin currently stands at fourth on the depth chart, and though the occasional rookie receiver breaks out for big numbers, it's unlikely that the diminutive Harvin makes that leap. His ADP puts him in the eleventh round, but he has been taken in some drafts as high as the eighth. If a receiver is the target for your later rounds, look for the mold of Deion Branch or Justin Gage, both of whom have more immediate potential than Harvin.
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BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
Q: With Brett Favre appearing to be days away from signing a tender with the Vikings, where should he be drafted?
A: Literally as I write this, reports are surfacing that Favre with the Vikings may already be a done deal behind closed doors. I suspect by the time this finds you, Favre is a Viking and he immediately vaults to #2 fantasy QB status.
And, to be blunt, I'm begging you to avoid him like the plague this year.
Favre has been the definition of durability throughout his career. But at some point, age no longer helps your cause. In the last 30 years, there has been one instance of a 40 year old QB posting #1 fantasy stats (Warren Moon '97) and three instances of a 40 yr. old QB even playing 12+ games in a single season.
Could Favre remain healthy and tear it up with support of a dominant running game? Yes. But much like the poker pros, we fantasy folk are interested in what's likely to occur - not what's possible. Nobody really knows what the breaking point is for QB's but, given the facts above and recent offseason surgery it's safe to say he is well into that descent.
I'm going on record right now. When we revisit the '08 NFL season, Sage Rosenfels will have been the Vikes leading passer and prove to have been a late-round (or even waiver) QB gem. If (when?) Favre signs, it will further bury Rosenfels draft value from his current 13th round average draft position down to the true "swing for the fences" rounds.
If your league allows you to carry #3/#4 QB depth, I implore you to carry Rosenfels. His stats would be that of an upper tier #2 if he sees the field. And given where you need to select him, what are we really giving up by being wrong?
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