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BREAKING DOWN THE BEARS
by: Robb Perkins
Transactions
Current FA's: None
Gains: Michael Gaines (TE), Jay Cutler (QB),
Losses: Marty Booker (WR), Rex Grossman (QB), Brandon Lloyd (WR), Kyle Orton (QB),
Fantasy Offense Draft Picks:
Third rd-Juaquin Iglesias (WR) Oklahoma
Fifth rd-Johnny Knox (WR) Abilene Christian
Seventh rd-Derek Kinder (WR) Pittsburgh
Depth Chart: (updated 6/28/09)
QB-Jay Cutler, Brett Basanez, Caleb Hanie
RB-Matt Forte, Kevin Jones, Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe
FB-Jason McKie, Jason Davis, Will Ta'ufo'ou (rc)
WR1-Juaquin Iglesias (rc), Rashied Davis, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu, Brandon Rideau
WR2-Devin Hester, Johnny Knox (rc), John Broussard, Eric Peterman (rc), Derek Kinder (rc)
TE-Desmond Clark, Greg Olsen, Michael Gaines, Kellen Davis, Fontel Mines
K-Robbie Gould
Notes: Placed the following players on IR-
Practice squad-
2009 Weekly Schedule (all times EST)
Sept. 13 at Green Bay 8:30
Sept. 20 Pittsburgh 4:15
Sept. 27 at Seattle 4:05
Oct. 4 Detroit 1:00
Oct. 11 BYE
Oct. 18 at Atlanta 8:20
Oct. 25 at Cincinnati 1:00
Nov. 1 Cleveland 1:00
Nov. 8 Arizona 1:00
Nov. 12 at San Francisco 8:20
Nov. 22 Philadelphia 8:20
Nov. 29 at Minnesota 1:00
Dec. 6 St. Louis 1:00
Dec. 13 Green Bay 1:00
Dec. 20 at Baltimore 1:00
Dec. 28 Minnesota 8:30
Jan. 3 at Detroit 1:00
Strength of Schedule Rankings:
Team schedule (based on '08 records)-32nd (105-149)
Passing-15th-210.5 yards allowed per game
Rushing-26th-118.5 yards allowed per game
News and notes:
After years of mediocrity at the quarterback position the Bears said enough is enough and traded for Jay Cutler from Denver and cut ties with both Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman.
If Cutler gets injured the Bears could be in deep trouble with Brett Basanez as the leading replacement. I do not see any fantasy value for any quarterback on the roster not named Cutler at this point.
The Bears will again use Matt Forte as much as possible making him a top five-fantasy pick. Kevin Jones will grab a touchdown or two but neither he nor any other back on the roster has any fantasy value unless Forte is injured and even then, their value is limited.
Devin Hester continues to improve and is an interesting prospect this season. Rookie Juaquin Iglesias out of Oklahoma looked as advertised and better in OTA's and mini-camps. He looks to have the early track to start opposite of Hester and could easily be the Bears best receiver sooner than later. The third and fourth receive positions are wide open. Rookie Johnny Knox looks like a speed demon. Undrafted Eric Peterman has been impressive and has a chance to make the team but the odds of him receiving any playing time this season is rare. The Wildcard is second year man Earl Bennett who played with Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt. According to the Chicago-Sun-Times, he is having an excellent off-season and has caught everything in site during workouts. He is a sleeper to monitor. Other receivers in the mix include Devin Aromashodu who has an outside chance to see significant playing time, but I see very limited fantasy value. John Broussard is an intriguing prospect who likely will have a difficult time seeing any significant playing time but I still like the second year player's upside. Rashied Davis has had some moments but while he could very well end up as the third or fourth receiver, his value is minimal. Rookie Derek Kinder will be nothing more than a possession receiver with minimal future value as a red zone specialist. Brandon Rideau has no value.
At tight end, both Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark with both again share time but Olsen is clearly the top fantasy player with potential of being a top five tight end with Cutler on board.
Kicker Robbie Gould has the potential to be a top 10 kicker.
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I.D.P. and Defensive Notes
by Jon Rascon
Primary Defense: 4-3
2008 Fantasy leaders:
Tackles: Lance Briggs (110), Brian Urlacher (93), Charles Tillman (93)
Sacks: Alex Brown (6), Adewale Ogunleye (5), Tommie Harris (5)
Interceptions: Kevin Payne (4), Briggs (3), Tillman (3)
Ascending player: Kevin Payne - Surprise contributor last year and is still improving.
Descending player: Alex Brown - Disappointing throughout his career.
Notes:
Two of the linebacker spots are locked and loaded with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Briggs will likely present better value as Urlacher is one of the "name" defensive players that is consistently drafted well above where he should be. Recently signed Pisa Tinoisamoa will likely handle the SLB position, but keep your eye on Nick Roach. He does have starting experience, and he is still young enough that he could still push Tinoisamoa for playing time in 2009. The biggest question mark is the pass rush.
The defensive line has struggled putting up respectable sack numbers and should be left alone on draft day. Alex Brown has never lived up to his potential. Adewale Ogunleye did provide a solid 62 combined tackles in 2008, but his sack total was his second lowest of his career and he does turn 32 this year. Tommie Harris does not ring up a lot of tackles nor is he a sack threat. His job is to free the linebackers to make plays.
If you are in a deep league, I would look at Ogunleye first then Brown before Tommie Harris, but I would search for prospects with higher upside before settling for any of these three.
That isn't the case with the defensive backs however. Whoever wins the free safety battle (Josh Bullocks, Daniel Manning) should offer good value alongside strong safety Kevin Payne, as well as cornerback Charles Tillman, who has averaged 84 combined tackles over the past couple years. Only Nathan Vasher, who has had problems staying healthy, an iffy proposition.
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PRELIMINARY (VERY) O-LINE ANALYSIS
by Chris Graley
The Bears definitely have a better and deeper o-line this year. Orlando Pace may not be the LT that he was a few years ago, but he's still a huge upgrade over John St Clair. The only question with Pace is if he can continue to stay healthy. Frank Omiyale gets the nod at LG for now, but he lacks starting experience. He is still raw, but has a lot of upside. He has experience at tackle as well. Olin Kreutz is starting to show his age, but is still solid in the middle. Garza is solid in his role as a plow in the running game, but lacks athleticism. Chris Williams had his rookie year cut short due to back surgery. It's hard to judge how well he'll do based on last year, but I think he'll be solid if he stays healthy. Josh Beekman, Dan Buenning, and Kevin Schaffer are experienced back-ups that can step in if needed.
Position-by-position grades with pass/run blocking unit rankings coming in July.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH/AVOID (at his A.D.P)
by Stan Feldman
Watch: WR Devin Hester.
Fantasy owners everywhere just rolled their eyes, but Hester has a unique opportunity to justify the massive contract he signed before last season. The Bears' chance acquisition of quarterback Jay Cutler has suddenly made Chicago's receiver a bit more attractive, and we believe Hester's stock (an eighth/ninth-round ADP), in response to his disappointing 2008 season, hasn't quite caught up with his potential.
Avoid: Chicago D/ST.
This unit continues to garner undeserved praise due to past performances. While the group finished eleventh in the league in fantasy last season, the actual statistics are even more grim. They didn't finish in the top twenty in yardage allowed or the top fifteen in pts. allowed, and the front office did little to add immediate help. While the group's current draft position is far from an abomination, owners should be careful not to get swept up in the inevitable run on defenses and wait until the end of the draft to select this unit.
BEARS BURNING QUESTION
by Rick Perkins
This one is easier than a two foot putt. You needed merely to glance at NFL Headlines over the offseason to know there's really only one question on fantasy owner's minds...
Q: How does Jay Cutler fare in Chicago and where does he deserve to be drafted?
A: It's important to first look at where Cutler is coming from before we look ahead. In high performance fantasy formats, he finished 3rd among QB's. A fantasy boon to his owners across all scoring formats.
Backed by a Broncos defense only mama could love, (finishing no higher than 26th in any category worth caring about), Jay had to huck it a staggering 616 times last year (19 fewer than league-leading Drew Brees). Lucky for his owners, Cutler backed it up with top-end arm strength and decent accuracy (T-14th 62.3% completion rate).
And now the Bears. Talk about switching tracks mid-career. From a top 5 WR corp to...well, not. From zero defensive support to respectability. From a hodge-podge running game to the versatile rushing/receiving Matt Forte. So what's it all mean Ricky, just tell me what it means!
Not much. How's that? Kyle Orton attempted 151 fewer passes than Cutler so yes, a bit of a slowdown in sheer attempts is in order. But at the end of the day, this Bears D isn't as HUGE an upgrade from craptitude that many would have you believe.
The passing game, with monster doses of Greg Olsen and Forte, as well as occasional shots to Hester will have it's days. In my opinion, my cohort Robb nailed Cutler in his top 75 QB rankings, squeaking him just inside the top 10. He'll still be a #1 fantasy QB this year but I'm begging you not to reach. If you take him inside of the top 6 quarterbacks of your draft, you're on your own.
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