Talk about an odd couple for Thread The Needle. Consensus #1 overall fantasy pick vs. breakout rookie that isn't projected to go until much later in round one (if at all) in fantasy drafts later this summer. Fact remains, Steve Slaton outscored Mr. "All Day" in 2008 275.9 to 270.4 in high performance formats, making them an intriguing comparison for 2009 and beyond...
Adrian Peterson and Steve Slaton began their young careers in very different ways.
Peterson was the seventh overall selection at the 2007 NFL draft, a Heisman trophy finalist from powerhouse University of Oklahoma and was regarded by some to be the finest among all the players that year. Slaton had a successful career at West Virginia University but was drafted with little fanfare in the third round (89th overall) of the 2008 draft by the Houston Texans, a team that already had lots of viable backfield talent on it’s roster. Peterson was brought in to be the star of the show in Minnesota. Early on, Slaton was thought to perhaps be a casualty of the numbers game.
Regardless of how differently they started out, though, one thing is clear: they are both among the most best running backs in the game right now and sure-fire top ten picks at just about every fantasy draft.
Peterson, who was selected number one overall in many leagues last year, has lived up to his promise, amassing 3,101 yards in just two seasons with the Vikings. Last season, he led the NFL with 1,760 yards, finishing 61 yards ahead of his closest competition, Atlanta’s Michael Turner.
Slaton took advantage of injuries to the Texans running back corp and assumed the starting role by Week Five. He finished the year with 1,282 yards, good enough for sixth place in the league.
Obviously, having either one of these guys on your squad would be a coup.
So, given the choice, who would you prefer? Not only this year, but beyond?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS:
As of right now, Peterson is the best running back in the world in many people’s estimations. They have some darn good evidence to support their case. Peterson not only has elite talent, he also has a team that has geared it’s offense in every facet around him. However, can he really be considered the best back in fantasy when seven other running backs scored more touchdowns than he did last season? If you play in a PPR league, then his lack of involvement (40 career receptions) in the passing game could be an issue....not enough to knock him out of the first ten players drafted, of course, but enough to make you reconsider taking him "merely" in top three.
Slaton, on the other hand, seems to have succeeded in spite of his team’s offensive philosophy. The Texans averaged 34.7 passing attempts per game, seventh most in the league (Well, that’s what happens when you have All World Andre Johnson and the “poor man’s Wes Welker” Kevin Walter to throw to). Slaton achieved his sixth place finish among running backs on just 268 attempts (the lowest among the top ten rushers except for fellow rookie Chris Johnson.) However, if his workload doesn’t increase, it’s far from certain he’ll achieve the same heights again. Also, it must be pointed out that Slaton was a bit of a surprise last year....every defensive coordinator will have him fully scouted this season.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
Peterson is likely to be among the top five rushers in fantasy for the foreseeable future, so he’s obviously a great dynasty pick. Even so, as his owner, while you may enjoy the benefits of him being the center of the Vikings’ world now, you would have to be concerned about the workload taking it’s toll on him in the long term. His backup Chester Taylor only received 101 carries last year, less than 1/5 of the team’s total (plus he’ll turn 30 during the season and the Vikings don’t have a Plan B on the roster right now if he should go down.) Peterson is a great running back to have if you’re in “Win Now” mode. You just shouldn’t count on him producing like he does for a long time if nothing changes.
Slaton has a similar issue in Houston. The Texans went from having too many running backs when he started to now not having anyone behind him who can be counted upon to help shoulder the burden (Chris Brown has missed 26 games over five seasons and Ryan Moats is "unproven" to be kind). Though he is attempting to pack a bit more muscle on his frame, Slaton remains undersized for a feature back role and it’s uncertain whether or not he could take the pounding of 300+ carries over the course of a full season. Also, the passing game is not going away anytime soon in Houston. He may ultimately still wind up a fantasy version of a bridesmaid....always flirting with the upper echelon but never quite reaching it due to limitations and situation.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
After reading what I’ve written here, I know this piece sounds a bit like “Debbie Downer”, so allow me to clarify: If either of these guys were to fall to me past the sixth pick in the first round of any draft I’m in, I’m taking them and laughing my head off about it.
In non-PPR formats, Peterson has the decided edge. In PPR leagues, it’s closer, but still not even. Even if the workload shortens his career, Peterson is more likely to win you a fantasy title as your RB1 than Slaton. So what if you only win your dynasty league once or twice before his career is over due to exhaustion/injury?
At least you can practice your smile in the reflection of your shiny trophies.
REDRAFT EDGE: Peterson
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KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Peterson
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