The phenomenon of the 3rd year WR is well documented. But if you're not familiar with this Fantasy Football strategy, the bottom line is that there is a statistically relevant correlation between Wide Receivers and their 3rd year in the league. If a wideout is ever going to have a breakout season where his production will help your fantasy team - year #3 is the most likely season it will happen. Let's take a look...
Aundrae Allison-Minnesota Vikings
2008-10/109/0
2007-8/122/0
Didn’t make any strides in his second season and there is no reason to think he’ll do too much more this season while he once again is the Vikings fourth wide receiver.
('09 Proj: 14 receptions, 119 yards, 0 TD)
Dwayne Bowe
2008-86/1022/7
2007-70/995/5
After a fantastic rookie season Bowe increased all of his numbers despite having a crew of sub-par QB’s tossing him the rock. It may seem that Tony Gonzalez is still the Chiefs go-to-guy but Bowe was actually targeted two more times than Gonzalez last season (157 to 155) and was the third most targeted player in the league. He should be right near the top again this season.
('09 Proj: 94 receptions, 1181 yards, 8 TD’s)
Steve Breaston-Arizona Cardinals
2008-77/1006/3
2007-8/92/0
Breaston won the honors of being the Cardinals third WR in 2008 and took advantage of it by becoming one of the biggest surprises of the season. As long as Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are on the field he won’t be anything more than the third best option but he proved last year that he’s still pretty darn good even if he is playing third fiddle.
('09 Proj: 70 receptions, 983 yards, 5 TD’s)
John Broussard-Chicago Bears
2008-Injured
2007-4/126/1
The former seventh round pick has good height and speed but is coming off of injury, lacks the intangibles, and could find it difficult just to make an NFL roster this season.
('09 Proj: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 TD’s)
Jason Carter-Carolina Panthers
No career stats
The un-drafted free agent has yet to put up any NFL stats and is coming off a season ending injury. If he makes a roster it will likely be as a practice squad player.
('09 Proj: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 TD’s)
Buster Davis-San Diego Chargers
2008-4/59/0 (missed 13 games due to injury)
2007-20/188/1
After two seasons Davis has shown little to warrant being the 30th overall pick of the 2007 draft. There is no denying he’s got the tools, 6-1, 4.4 speed but staying healthy has been a problem and he has yet to prove he’s anything more than the fourth best receiver for the Chargers. I’m not ready to write him off just yet but this season could make or break Davis’ career.
('09 Proj: 23 receptions, 201 yards, 0 TD’s)
Chris Davis-Tennessee Titans
2008-2/32/0
2007-5/38/0
Davis hasn’t shown anything that would lead me to believe he’ll be a factor this year or any season for that matter, but the Titans receiving core is lackluster at best so he has a chance.
('09 Proj: 4 receptions, 49 yards, 0 TD’s)
Yamon Figurs-Baltimore Ravens
2008-1/43/1
2007-1/36/0
Figurs has an amazing 39.5 yards per catch career average, of course that’s on two career receptions but hey, one of them was good for a TD. At this point Figurs remains nothing more than a return man and he may be lucky to keep that job considering he has seven career fumbles.
('09 Proj: 4 receptions, 84 yards, 0 TD’s)
Ted Ginn Jr.-Miami Dolphins
2008-56/790/2
2007-34/420/2
Ginn had a decent sophomore season and could be on the verge of a breakout in 2009. One thing that is a concern however, is his eight fumbles in two seasons (five last year). I think his days as a punt return man are done considering he’s had five fumbles in only 31 returns…ouch!
('09 Proj: 69 receptions, 972 yards, 5 TD’s)
Anthony Gonzalez-Indianapolis Colts
2008-57/664/4
2007-37/576/3
After a solid rookie season Gonzo improved in every major statistical category last season and should do so again in '09, as he may very well be the starter opposite Reggie Wayne. I look for big things this year and beyond.
('09 Proj: 73 receptions, 1,004 yards, 6 TD’s)
Roy Hall-Indianapolis Colts
2008-1/9/0
2007-0/0/0
At 6-3, 240 Hall is really nothing more than a fast TE. It doesn’t appear that he will be much of a factor at WR (or TE) for that matter. I’m not expecting much from Hall.
('09 Proj: 3 receptions, 29 yards, 0 TD’s)
Johnnie Lee Higgins
2008-22/366/4
2007-6/47/0
Higgins finally got a shot to show what he could do last season, catching a TD in each of the Raiders final three games. The former third round pick has speed to burn and a 40 inch vertical jump. I think Higgins could become JaMarcus Russell’s go-to-guy this season. If I had to pick one player from this list to take his career from zero to 60 in true third year breakout fashion, this would be my guy.
('09 Proj: 59 receptions, 886 yards, 6 TD’s)
Jason Hill-San Francisco 49ers
2008-30/317/2
2007-1/6/0
When I wrote his rookie bio I said look back after the 2009 season and see if he isn’t one of the top three receivers from this class. I don’t believe he has a chance to be that good this season but I think he made some strides last year.
('09 proj: 49 receptions, 508 yards, 4 TD’s)
Dwayne Jarrett-Carolina Panthers
2008-10/119/0
2007-6/73/0
The 6’ 4” Jarrett has shown nothing to warrant being a second round pick two years ago, drawing comparisons to Keyshawn Johnson at the time. I’m not ready to write him off quite yet but he’s real close to joining Mike Williams wherever the hell he is these days.
('09 Proj: 24 receptions, 254 yards, 1 TD)
Calvin Johnson-Detroit Lions
2008-78/1331/12
2007-48/756/4
Johnson had an outstanding rookie season but he was so hyped coming out of college that most people considered it a disappointment; well he erased any doubts as to whether he is the real deal or not last season, despite having little to no help around him on an 0-16 team. Look for C.J. to be a top tier receiver for years to come.
('09 Proj: 103 receptions, 1,598 yards, 15 TD’s)
Jacoby Jones-Houston Texans
2008-3/81/0
2007-15/149/0
I like his ability but the Texans seem content to use him mostly as a return man at this point. Until that changes, he will have minimal fantasy value.
(09’ proj: 12 receptions, 138 yards, 0 TD’s)
James Jones-Green Bay Packers
2008-20/274/1
2007-47/676/2
The former third round pick had a surprisingly solid rookie campaign and had moments of greatness last season when he wasn’t injured. As long as Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are around he won’t be anything more than the third best option but he is a nice sleeper pick, especially factoring in Driver's age (34).
('09 Proj: 43 receptions, 606 yards, 3 TD’s)
Robert Meachem-New Orleans Saints
2008-12/289/3
2007-0/0/0
This former first round pick didn’t see the field as a rookie and, while he scored four touchdowns (one rushing) he only touched the ball in eight games. He’s got skills and could be on the verge of a minor breakout.
('09 Proj: 34 receptions, 534 yards, 3 TD’s)
Brandon Middleton-F/A
2008-1/23/0
2007-8/70/1
Only value is as a return man and even that is limited since he's without a home.
('09 Proj: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 TD’s)
Legedu Naanee-San Diego Chargers
2008-8/64/0
2007-8/69/0
I like Naanee’s potential or maybe I just like his name; I’m not sure, but in all seriousness there is no reason to think he makes any major strides this season. Still, I do like him as a super, super sleeper if injuries unexpectedly hoist him into the spotlight.
('09 Proj: 11 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD)
Sidney Rice-Minnesota Vikings
2008-15/141/4
2007-31/396/4
Only 46 receptions in two seasons is disappointing, but you’ve got to like the eight touchdowns, his 6’4” frame, and the fact that he’s still only 22 years old. A difficult guy to breakdown as he could become the next Roddy White or the next Troy Williamson, I’m betting on something in between this season.
('09 Proj: 48 receptions, 577 yards, 5 TD’s)
Laurent Robinson-Atlanta Falcons
2008-5/52/0
2007-37/437/1
After a decent rookie season I was all over this guy as a big time sleeper last year. Injuries took their toll and Robinson took a giant step back. He should have every chance to prove his worth as the Falcons number two WR in camp.
('09 Proj: 39 receptions, 432 yards, 1 TD)
Ryne Robinson-Carolina Panthers
2008-0/0/0
2007-4/35/0
He’s a smaller version of Steve Smith without super star ability. There is no indication that he will be any kind of a factor this season.
('09 Proj: 6 receptions, 63 yards, 0 TD’s)
Steve Smith-New York Giants
2008-57/574/1
2007-8/63/0
Smith showed promise in the playoffs his rookie season and, while his numbers last year weren’t great they do show promise. With the future of Plaxico Burress in limbo and an over-the-hill Amani Toomer, the Giants may use Smith in a much larger role this season. As with Higgins above, another great candidate to make the year three leap.
('09 Proj: 78 receptions, 989 yards, 4 TD’s)
Isaiah Stanback-Dallas Cowboys
2008-2/24/0
2007-0/0/0
The former college quarterback has only played in 10 career games thanks in large part to injuries. He would still be learning the position had he stayed healthy the past two years and isn’t likely to contribute much.
('09 Proj: 12 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD)
Chansi Stuckey-New York Jets
2008-32/359/3
2007-0/0/0
Stuckey started out last year scoring in each of the first three games and forcing a number of fantasy owners to pick him up; unfortunately those were the only touchdowns of his season. Stuckey has big time talent, but the Jets have a slew of receivers so unless one of them goes down, it may be difficult for him to put up numbers any better than last year.
('09 Proj: 44 receptions, 489 yards, 2 TD’s)
Courtney Taylor-Seattle Seahawks
2008-9/98/0
2007-5/38/0
Taylor was being hyped as a must have pick up last season after a whole slew of injuries to Seattle’s receiving core, just asking anybody that picked him up how well that worked out. I like his potential but the fact that he didn’t step up last year screams "role player" to me.
('09 Proj: 14 receptions, 143 yards, 0 TD’s)
Mike Walker-Jacksonville Jaguars
2008-16/217/0
2007-Injured
I have always liked Walker but, to be honest I’m not willing to bet on any Jacksonville receiver - as there is just no rhyme or reason to their passing game. Take away week four and five of '08 (5 receptions, 46 yards and 6 receptions, 107 yards) and Walker didn’t do squat. The fact that his 100 yard game came against the Steelers shows his promise.
('09 Proj: 40 receptions, 545 yards, 2 TD’s)
Paul Williams-Tennessee Titans
2008-1/7/0
2007-No Stats
He’s shown nothing in two seasons for a team that is a receiver dry bed, so I don’t see any reason to expect much more from him this season.
('09 Proj: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 0 TD’s)
