UPDATED 6-9-09
Rankings Legend

y = Age is assisting value
y = Age is hindering value

i = Injury history is assisting value
i = Injury history hindering value

b/b = Value helped/hindered by "Big-Play" bonus scoring leagues.

ppr/ppr = Player's value helped/hindered by point per reception scoring leagues (RB/WR/TE).

td/td = Player's value helped/hindered by TD-heavy scoring leagues.

sys/sys = Player's value helped/hindered by the system he's in and supporting cast.

int/int = intangibles.  Work ethic, attitude, shooting yourself in the thigh, gang affiliation, etc. 
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TIER ONE:

1. Drew Brees, NO  Age: 30  b - td - sys
Brees is the gold standard right now. While his yardage statistics may come down a little bit, with a healthy Colston and improved running game opening passing lanes, Brees should still be good for 4000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns in 2009.

2. Peyton Manning, IND Age: 33  i - b - td – sys
The safe card. I can’t say anything about him that hasn’t already been said. But know this. Even with all the offensive line problems he had last year, still only sacked 14 times.

TIER TWO: 

3. Phillips Rivers, SD Age: 27 y - b - sys - int
The Chargers clearly belong to Rivers now. I believe the Chargers would like to feature a balanced offense if at all possible, so while a safe pick, also limited upside from last year.

4. Aaron Rodgers, GB  Age: 25 y - i - td - sys
Brett who? In his first season as starter, Rodgers passed for over 4000 yards. Sneaky four rushing touchdowns. Still room for growth, and with Greg Jennings, has that No. 1 wide receiver that he can depend on. 

5. Matt Schaub, HOU Age 28 y - i – sys

Last ranking: 7

06/08/09 Update: Last year, I said “forget conventional wisdom, Andre Johnson will be the top WR this year.” This year, I’m saying “forget conventional wisdom, Matt Schaub will be a top 5 quarterback.”
Schaub was a sneaky breakout candidate in 2008 and he responded with a top 10 quarterback rating. The only thing missing was a complete season. That will come now. Has a great supporting cast. Texans could become Saints-lite this year.  

6. Tom Brady, NE  Age: 32 i - b - td - sys – int

Last ranking: 8

6/8/09 Update: Everything seems to be clicking regarding Brady’s return from injury. But I think this is the ceiling for Brady in 2009, as there will be a period of adjustment for the first 5-6 games.
Cassel is now gone, so Patriots are firmly of the belief that Brady will be good to go opening weekend. Even so, it’s still going to take a little bit to knock off the rust. Needs his running backs to step up this year.
 

7. Jay Cutler, DEN Age: 26 y - i - b – sys

Last ranking: 6

06/08/09 Update – It makes me nervous that Cutler has stated that he’s okay with the Bears remaining a running team, but I think by the end of the season, Cutler will transform the team’s offensive identity. It will just take a little time.

04/28/09 Update – Cutler is now with the Chicago Bears, and value takes a short term downtick because of the quality of supporting cast, although Cutler has proven in the past he can make any receiver productive.

Several questions have now arisen, including the biggest question of how does he respond to offseason diss? And then there is the question of the system the Broncos will run. But at the end of the day, whether it’s implementing a new scheme in Denver or with another team altogether, Cutler will get his numbers.

8. Tony Romo, DAL Age: 29 b - td - sys – int

Last ranking: 5

06/08/09 Update – Romo is the playmaker of this offense, but with 3 good running backs, how much will they need him to throw the rock? He’ll need to become more efficient to get back up in the rankings.

4/14/09 Update – There isn’t really any to speak of. He simply moves up as we take a slight wait and see approach with Cutler for this season.
Terrell Owens doesn’t downgrade Romo much. Key will be establishing rapport with No. 2 target Roy Williams to complement his working relationship with tight end Jason Witten. True playmaker at the quarterback position, and healthy running back corps will help.

 9. Kurt Warner, ARI Age: 38 y - b - td - sys - int
I know what you are thinking. But 2008 was the perfect storm for Warner. And while having Fitzgerald automatically bumps you a couple notches, there is a still a lot of risk with a 38 year old quarterback who gets sacked plenty and has only three complete seasons over the past 10 years. Ranking could go up if Boldin situation becomes definite.

TIER THREE:

10. Matt Ryan,ATL Age: 24 y - i – sys

Last ranking: 11

06/08/09 Update: Not a big jump, but after the first couple of tiers, Ryan is the guy I’d be most willing to gamble on the upside. Any kind of injury to RB Michael Turner instantly makes the Falcons a passing team and they have the weapons in Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.  
Still has plenty of room to grow, and opportunities should be more readily available in year 2 as defenses give more respect to running game. Could use a little more consistency from his second and third options.

11. Donovan McNabb, PHI Age: 32 i - b - td – int

Last ranking: 10

06/08/09 Update: Westbrook’s clean up surgery is a tad worrisome. Yes, he’ll be back in time for the regular season, but how effective will he be? I love me some Shady McCoy if Westbrook isn’t able to carry his portion of the load, but you can’t replace Westbrook in the passing game and that will hurt McNabb’s value.
This is the beginning of the “quarterback by committee” if you wait this long to get your first. McNabb can be a No. 1 quarterback in any given week, but also has too many weeks where he is negated. Career high in yards last year, and that was only good for seventh best. Very much a number 2 quarterback in number 1 clothes.

12. Matt Cassel, KC Age 26 y - b - td - int
Gets his chance to prove himself with the rebuilding Chiefs. This ranking is assuming Tony Gonzales comes back. Red flag is that he does get sacked quite a bit.

TIER FOUR:

13. Eli Manning, NYG Age: 28 y - i - td - sys
Loss of Derrick Ward (more opportunity) negates questionable receiving corps (without Plaxico) so 2009 should be status quo. Unlike a couple of other guys on this tier, much more likely to be key difference between winning and losing due to inconsistencies.
 

14. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT Age: 27 y - i - b - sys
Won’t win you game by himself, but won’t lose you games by himself either. Emergence of Santonio Holmes helps with Hines Ward nearing the end of his career.
 

15.Trent Edwards, BUF Age: 25 y - b
Recent Terrell Owens acquisition gives him a legitimate No. 2 wide receiver for the first time in his career. Two deep threats in Owens and Evans should give Edwards a boost in the two things that were a negative for him before (bonus plays and system).
 

16. Sage Rosenfels, MIN Age:

Gets this generous ranking thanks to Adrian Peterson. If he can build a quick rapport with Berrian and/or Rice, this could be a laughable ranking next year.

TIER FIVE:

17. Kyle Orton, CHI Age 26 y 

Last ranking: 18

4-14-09 Update: The other guy in the Jay Cutler trade, Orton gets a bump up now that he’s been traded to a team with more established skill position players. Still needs to win the job, but if he does, is in good position to surpass last year’s stats.
Thanks to Forte’s rookie season, Orton should see passing lanes that probably weren’t there last year. And I look for Olsen and Orton to become a regular fixture on Sundays. If he can get one more receiving option, the Bears could surprise.

18.Carson Palmer, CIN Age: 29 i - b - sys 

Last ranking: 20

4-28-09 Update: Bengals drafted a monster of a tackle in Andre Smith. Smith should open up the run game and give Carson Palmer an excellent protection on passing downs. TE Chase Coffman could develop into nice target for Palmer.
With Houshmandzadeh in Seattle now, will need a couple of the younger wide receivers to step up to fill the void, because Palmer has never been a guy that can make things happen on his own.

19. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA Age 34 y - b - i - td - int  
Gets bumped up a couple notches with recent Houshmandzadeh signing, but without a serious running attack, will still take a lot of hits. He does have the best chance to bounce up into the tier four or even tier 3 category by opening weekend with a good training camp.

20. JaMarcus Russell, OAK Age 24 y - b
Last ranking: 17

4-14-09 Update: Coach Cable said that Russell is working harder this offseason. But Raiders still brought in Jeff Garcia as insurance. And while DHB could provide vertical threat, they could have landed Michael Crabtree, who is more polished.

The Raiders will open up the playbook a little bit this year with a healthy McFadden opening up passing lanes left and right. They still could use a pure No. 1 wide receiver, but tight end Zach Miller provides great checkdown insurance.
  

TIER SIX:

21. Jason Campbell, WAS Age 27 y – i – b

Made the transistion last year to yet another offensive playbook, but still managed to improve his stats for the third straight season. Needs group of young wide receivers to grow up if he wants to become starting fantasy material.
 

22. Jake Delhomme, CAR Age 34 y – I – td - sys

Has one of the most lethal weapons in Steve Smith and that alone gets him ranked. However, because the Panthers system doesn’t emphasize the pass enough, Delhomme can’t be trusted to be anything more than a solid backup.

23. David Garrard, JAX Age 31 b
You get what you see from Garrard and that’s consistency putting up slightly below average stats. But still a perfect number 2 for the bye week if you get an upper echelon quarterback earlier in the draft.
 

24. Marc Bulger, STL Age 32 i -

Bulger suffered last season playing behind the atrocious Rams line. But with a healthy Steven Jackson and an overhauled offensive line, Bulger could surprise late in the year.
 

25. Joe Flacco, BAL Age: 24 y - sys - int
Flacco showed he can be a franchise quarterback for the Ravens. But still needs lots of work and luck to become fantasy relevant. If Ravens defensive changes don’t work out, Flacco could see increased opportunities if Ravens have to play from behind.

The remaining projected quarterbacks: Brady Quinn, Kerry Collins, Byron Leftwich, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill, Kellen Clemons