These two players were looked at very differently during drafts last year.
Turner was the new RB1 in Atlanta and expectations were sky high for him. He had toiled in obscurity behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego for too long and was now being given his chance to shine. Sure, there were questions about his ability to be a full time back, but the talent he clearly possessed, combined with the minimal tread on his tires made him a very attractive prospect.
Jones-Drew, on the other hand, was just coming off a year that was being viewed as a "Sophomore Slump". His yardage, touchdown and receiving totals had all tumbled from their heights of the previous season and he was still shackled in a committee-situation with the formerly fragile Fred Taylor. There were many who were down on his prospects and it seemed as though his stock had slipped.
Well, we fantasy players can’t be right 100% of the time, can we?
While Turner, of course, had the breakout year many predicted, Jones-Drew bounced back well enough to make Taylor an afterthought and the Jacksonville RB job is now all his.
So how are they both being viewed this year?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
Turner will be drafted in the first round based on his performance last season. Something that potential owners should be aware of, though: He carried the ball 376 times last season and endured a heck of a pounding while doing so. There is no guarantee that he will be able to carry that sort of a workload again without suffering injury. As both Larry Johnson and Jamaal Anderson have shown, the odds of him doing so are extremely slim. However, he just might surprise and continue his dominance (which, to be fair, was limited to the weaker teams in the league.)
Jones-Drew, on the other hand, is set to be the feature back for the first time in his career and should experience the same amount of hype that Turner received the year before. Of course, he is on the small side for an NFL running back and there will be questions (rightfully so) as to whether or not he can excel outside of a committee role. Also, barring a superstar WR through free agency (which seems like an unlikely scenario), the Jaguars will be without a top-flight passing game again, meaning that defenses will be free to key on Jones-Drew. Therefore, while he’ll certainly have more opportunity, he will also face bigger challenges than ever before.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
First off, if you play in a PPR league, then this decision is not even close. Jones-Drew has 148 receptions over three years. Turner has a grand total of 17 over five years. That added element makes Jones-Drew infinitely more attractive in that scenario.
However, for argument’s sake, let’s say you don’t play in a PPR league. Okay...guess what? It’s still not all that close....and not only because Jones-Drew is three years younger than Turner, either.
Turner is a fine running back who will rack up yardage and touchdowns for probably at least the next three years. However, he has three things going against him in this comparison:
1. He’s one-dimensional.
2. He plays for a team that has a dynamic passing combo in Matt Ryan and Roddy White. They are only going to get better as time goes on and 2008 will easily go down as his career high number of attempts.
3. Jerious Norwood has demonstrated that he is capable, when called upon, to produce as part of a committee. Should Turner slow up at any point, Norwood will have the chance to seize more playing time as the team tries to keep it’s number one guy fresh.
Jones-Drew has none of those factors affecting him. He is not only a big part of the passing game, he also returns punts, giving his owners another opportunity to put points on the board. Another big advantage he has is that there is no one on the depth chart behind him who will seriously threaten for carries (as I write this). That could change in the future, of course, but, for right now, he has only smooth sailing ahead.
BOTTOM LINE
Like I said, Michael Turner is a great running back and he might do very well again this year. He will be a very sexy pick, but how often do those guys bring home fantasy gold? Ask any LT owner from last season about that one.
Take Maurice Jones-Drew and you’ll be taking a trip soon afterwards...to the bank.
REDRAFT EDGE: Jones-Drew
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Jones-Drew
+++++
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