It’s a safe bet to say that, even though the order may have varied, the top three tight ends drafted in most leagues last season were Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten. As all three of these guys possesses otherworldly talent and each has proven themselves to be among the elite at the position, this declaration should come as a surprise to absolutely no one who pays even the slightest bit of attention to fantasy football...
While Gates stumbled a bit in his production due to an assortment of nagging injuries, both Gonzalez and Witten had fine seasons while dealing with their own woes. Gonzalez, despite playing with four different quarterbacks during the season, put up a league-leading 96 receptions for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns. Witten, who endured not only his own share of injuries but a three week stretch with the immortal duo of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger throwing the ball to him, lagged behind Gonzo only a bit, posting 81 catches for 952 yards and four touchdowns.
Both of these excellent players will be selected very highly again this year.
So, which one would be your choice?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS:
The scary thing about Gonzalez is that, despite the fact that he just turned 33, he has really shown very few signs of slowing down. However, the circumstances that have enabled his success may be changing. For one thing, due to a number of circumstances, the Chiefs attempted only 379 rushing attempts last year, the lowest amount in franchise history (not counting the strike-shortened 1982 season), something that new coach Todd Haley is going to go to great lengths to avoid repeating. Also, Dwayne Bowe is proving to be one of the better wide receivers in the league and could begin cutting into Gonzalez’s share of the action. Of course, on the plus side, the addition of Matt Cassel should stabilize the quarterback position, so Gonzo does have that going in his favor and should put forth another fine effort. He’ll likely still be the first TE off the board, possibly as early as the third round.
Witten may end up being his team’s featured receiver now that Terrell Owens has left town. While the team will try to work Miles Austin and Sam Hurd more into the mix to complement new WR1 Roy Williams, Witten is the only sure thing that exists in their receiving corps at the moment. His chemistry with a healthy Tony Romo cannot be overlooked. However, as Marion Barber will still be the red zone option of choice, the tight end’s touchdown numbers may not improve much, if at all. There are also many who consider Antonio Gates, when healthy, to be the superior weapon. Even so, Witten should still be the second or third TE off the board in most leagues.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS:
Though one gets the feeling that Gonzalez is in the kind of physical shape that would allow him to play forever, by his own admission, he may be done over the next two or three years. That factor alone lowers his value in a dynasty league (at least one lacking time limits on how long a player can be kept.) Another big question surrounding him is whether or not he’ll finish his career in Kansas City. If he does, he will probably continue to be the focal point of the offense. However, if he eventually decides that he wants to go to a team with a shot of winning the Super Bowl, it’s hard to imagine any successful team depending on him the way the Chiefs have. While he may ultimately accomplish his personal goal of being a champion in that scenario, his fantasy value would almost certainly fall.
Witten will turn 27 years old in May and is just about to enter his prime. He is also clearly in the long term plans of the Cowboys as is Romo. Therefore, barring unforeseen circumstances, you can probably count on their connection surviving for quite some time, which should only benefit him over the long haul. The one area of concern about Witten, though, is his style of play does lead to injury. He has a tremendous tolerance for pain, which sometimes works against his fantasy owners as it did last season when he played a few weeks with broken ribs and was largely ineffectual.
BOTTOM LINE:
The Tight End position used to be so mundane that, if you didn’t come away from your draft with one of the best, basically any fill-in would do. With the emergence of guys like Owen Daniels, Chris Cooley and Visanthe Shiancoe, though, the line between the elite and the rest has blurred a bit.
Despite that fact, Gonzalez and Witten remain the cream of the crop and you’ll need to reach for them before you take a WR2 in most cases.
Due to his situation, Gonzalez is the stronger bet in a redraft league (though, truthfully, you really can’t go wrong either way.). However, Witten is the clear choice for the future.
REDRAFT EDGE: Gonzalez
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE: Witten
+++++
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