UPDATED 6-9-09
Rankings Legend

y = Age is assisting value
y = Age is hindering value

i = Injury history is assisting value
i = Injury history hindering value

b/b = Value helped/hindered by "Big-Play" bonus scoring leagues.

ppr/ppr = Player's value helped/hindered by point per reception scoring leagues (RB/WR/TE).

td/td = Player's value helped/hindered by TD-heavy scoring leagues.

sys/sys = Player's value helped/hindered by the system he's in and supporting cast.

int/int = intangibles.  Work ethic, attitude, shooting yourself in the thigh, gang affiliation, etc. 
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TIER ONE:

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN Age: 24 y - b - td - sys - int
The shizzle. In ppr leagues, he comes back to the pack a little, but otherwise, he’ll be the consensus number one overall pick in leagues this year. New quarterback Sage Rosenfels can only help Peterson’s cause. 

2. Michael Turner, ATL Age 26 y - i - td - sys – int
Had a monster 2008 season, and 17 touchdowns is huge in any scoring format. Biggest question regarding Turner appears to center around his workload, as physical toll will catch up to him at some point. Seems destined to be shining star for 2-3 years before fading like Larry Johnson, but that’s not a worry here for redraft leagues.

3. Steven Jackson, STL Age: 26 y - i - b - td - sys - int
You would think losing Holt and Pace would hurt Jackson, but the Rams have been proactive this offseason, signing Jason Brown from the Ravens and rumored to be looking at offensive tackle with the second pick in the draft. Throw in blocking fullback Mike Karney, and all signs point towards the Rams prioritizing the run game in 2009, and I think Jackson could have a season much like Turner had last year.

4. Chris Johnson, TEN Age: 23 y - b - td - ppr - sys
Split touches with LenDale White last year, but I expect to see that ratio fall more in Johnson’s favor this year.  Very explosive running back, he can score from anywhere on the field, and I think he’ll get more red zone opportunities this year.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX Age: 24 y - i - b - td - ppr – int

Last ranking: 5

4-14-09 Update: There is no change to his ranking, but MJD now gets bump up to Tier 1 status, as Jaguars have drafted strong reinforcements along the offensive line. Becomes safer pick.
Jones-Drew has done nothing but produce in the limited amount of work he’s received so far, and next year should get his opportunity to be every down back with Fred Taylor being cut. He is ranked here for now, as the draft could either bump him up a couple notches (draft offensive lineman) or drop him a couple of notches (they draft a running back).

TIER TWO:

6. Brandon Jacobs, NYG Age: 27 y - i - b - ppr - td - sys
With Derrick Ward signing elsewhere, Jacobs will only have to split carries with Ahmad Bradshaw this year. Problem is whether Jacobs can remain healthy for an entire 16 game season, as he may just be better suited for short yardage work. In point per reception leagues, Jacobs takes a big hit downwards. But a terror inside the 20 means he’ll get plenty of goal line looks.

7. Clinton Portis, WAS Age: 28 Int – sys -
Undersized and underrated, Portis has handled the lion’s share of carries throughout his career, tacking on another 342 carries in 2008.  This is year two in Coach Zorn’s offense, and with a little more efficiency by quarterback Jason Campbell and the wide receivers, Portis could be in a line for one more solid year.

8. Darren McFadden, OAK Age: 22 y - i - ppr
Dare to be great. Every year, you have someone who is not projected to be a top 15-20 back that explodes beyond everyone’s expectations. Darren McFadden will be that guy this year. He won’t go in the first round, but he’ll go in the next two rounds, so he carries the most risk of tier two running backs with potential to either deliver tier one production or tier four numbers if he isn’t ready.

9. Frank Gore, SF Age: 26 y - sys - int

Last ranking: 11

4-14-09 Update: The beneficiary of Lynch getting an extra suspended game. Drafting wide receiver Michael Crabtree certainly good news to Gore owners.
Will forever be haunted by not knowing how good he could have been without ACL injuries to both knees. Still a solid vet, and with reports that Singletary would like to feature more of the running attack, Gore stands to be the main benefactor. Would be great if they could ever get a signal caller in place that takes some pressure off him, but that won’t happen this year.

TIER THREE:

10. DeAngelo Williams, CAR Age: 25 b - ppr - td – sys

Last ranking: 12

06/08/09 Update: Gets a bump up as I review his game film. I think he really only started to “get it” as the season wore on. I don’t think he’ll approach last year’s numbers, but I think he makes for a very consistent scoring option.
As stated in our dynasty rankings, Williams won’t duplicate 2008, but even at 50 percent production, would still have 10 touchdowns. I think Williams will continue to play with chip on his shoulder knowing that he’s, in all likelihood, auditioning for teams in 2010.

11. Marshawn Lynch, BUF Age: 22 y - i - ppr - sys - int

Last ranking: 11

4-14-09 Update: Received 3 game suspension instead of 2 games I had “credited” him with before. Will still have a good season, but 3 games is a lot to make up.
All he has to do is stay on the field and he’ll be successful, as Buffalo has surrounded him with good talent. Problem is, Lynch can’t seem to stay off the police blotter. This ranking assumes a modest two game suspension, so expect his value to fluctuate between now and the preseason.

12. Steve Slaton, HOU Age: 23 y - b - ppr - sys

Last ranking: 14

06/08/09 Update: Until a reliable big back makes his presence known in Houston, Slaton will have plenty of scoring opportunities this year, as I sense this is the Texans breakout year.
Not an every week, every down back. But Slaton’s explosiveness and elusiveness can rack up yards in a hurry. Should be major benefactor in Texans breakout in 2009, but may lose goal line carries if they draft bigger back to complement Slaton.

13. Kevin Smith, DET Age: 22 y - ppr - sys
Showed significant promise late in the year. Gets stronger as the game goes on. Strong play in all types of leagues, and the Lions offense could begin to take shape in 2009. Emergence of Calvin Johnson as bona fide superstar at wide receiver helps, but Smith will also need help on the offensive line and a steady signal caller to take next step.

14. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD Age: 30 y - ppr - sys
Last year was beginning of the end, but before we cut all ties with Tomlinson, I think he has one last hurrah in 2009. Only problem is that, like last year, he will not be consistent in his scoring. Still likely to be drafted late in the first round or early second, but at that point, its all about getting consistent production, and LT will provide anything but in 2009.

15. Matt Forte, CHI Age: 23 y - ppr - sys
Forte wore down considerably as the season progressed in 2008. Throw in that he is not a big threat to break long gainers, and it becomes apparent that his forte is just a slightly above average running back in a best case scenario in Chicago, with no competition for splitting carries. Very little difference between Forte and next guy on the list.

16. Ryan Grant, GB Age: 26 b - sys
Not a gamebreaker. But if he can stay healthy, is the ideal number 2 back as someone who will get steady opportunities even if he doesn’t break long touchdown very often. Keep your eyes on Brandon Jackson in camp. If he can force the Packers into any kind of a consistent timeshare, Grant’s value drops considerably.

TIER FOUR:

17. Marion Barber, DAL Age: 26 i - b - ppr – sys
Barber is a flat out beast. But his style is so punishing it takes a toll on everyone, including Barber himself.  The Cowboys would be wise to pick their spots with Barber and keep him fresh for late in the season. With two other capable running backs in Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, look for the Cowboys to do just that in 2009. He’ll still be the goal line back regardless of the split, and that’s good enough to get him into the top 20.

18. Ronnie Brown, Age: 27 i – sys – ppr - sys
Brown is a multi-dimensional running back entering year two removed from ACL injury. His 10 touchdown season of year ago notwithstanding, has not been goal line bruiser that his 230 pound frame would suggest he could/should be. But with Ricky Williams clearly on the downside of his career, Brown should be in position to get the lions share of carries for the Dolphins in 2009.

19. Brian Westbrook, PHI Age: 30 y - i - b - ppr - td – sys

Last ranking: 6

06/09/09 Update: Westbrook’s value drops yet again, this time off the news that he recently had some “minor” ankle surgery to remove bone spurs. From all reports, he is expected back by opening day, but this is the type of thing that will hinder Westbrook for a great portion of the year as he will struggle to catch up and get into game shape.

4/28/09 Update: Eagles bring in stud LT Jason Peters, but they also draft running back LeSean McCoy. Westbrook isn’t in any imminent danger of losing his job, but he is in line to lose 5-10 touches a game to the rookie out of Pittsburgh. Westbrook will need to find a way to do more with less.
One of the biggest question marks heading into 2009 is Brian Westbrook. Last year missed a couple games but more alarming was how much his average yards per carry and yards per reception both dropped. Still a gritty baller, but could become LaDainian Tomlinson '08 version 2.0, especially if Eagles take a running back early in draft.

20. Pierre Thomas, NO Age: 24 y - sys
As the Giants, Panthers and Titans showed last year, running back by committees doesn’t mean you can’t have two highly productive, reliable fantasy producers. And while Reggie Bush gets a spike in value in point per reception leagues, Thomas is the pick in high performance, touchdown heavy leagues. Thomas is a hard working running back who fights for every yard. Can also catch the rock out of the backfield, so his value doesn’t plummet in other leagues. 

21. Willie Parker, PIT Age: 28 sys – i - ppr
Fast Willie enters his sixth season in Pittsburgh, and while he remains the best running back on the team, the Steelers will look to rest Parker more in the future and utilize second year running back Rashard Mendenhall as he returns from a season ending injury. 

22. Derrick Ward, TB Age: 29 sys - ppr
Rushed for 1,000 yards last year, and now moves to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has a sneaky good offensive line, so he should have every opportunity to match last years totals.  Could even move up a tier if the Bucs can acquire a good quarterback. Won’t be an elite back, but makes for workable No. 2 back, and outstanding No. 3 back.

TIER FIVE:

23. Thomas Jones, NYJ Age: 31 y - i
Had a great season in 2008, but too many question marks (quarterback, age, new coach) to realistically expect similar numbers in 2009. Should approach 1000 yards this season, but without similar amount of touchdowns, falls to this spot. Could get passed by several others by the end of the season.

24. Jonathan Stewart, CAR Age: 22 y - i - td - sys
Everything should be status quo for Carolina in 2009, as the Panthers continue to stress the run with DeAngelo Williams and Stewart. Long term, looks like Stewart will be the guy, but until then, this is one running back by committee where everyone is a winner.

25. LeSean McCoy, PHI Age: 21 y - sys

Last ranking: n/a

06/08/09 Update: The first rookie to make the top 25 list, as I expect McCoy to get plenty of opportunities this year in the wake of Westbrook’s lingering injury issues. I think at worst, McCoy is looking at a timeshare this year, but if Westbrook misses anymore time, McCoy could shoot up the rankings.

The remaining projected running backs:  Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Le'Ron McClain, Cedric Benson, Larry Johnson.