FUTURE FORECAST:  MATT CASSEL


 

In recent years, the New England Patriots have drafted quarterbacks so well, one might actually suspect that Bill Belichick does own a crystal ball that helps him tell the future... 
 

After all, how else can it be explained how the Pats plucked an unheralded Tom Brady from the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft, only to look on smugly as he led the team to three Super Bowl victories? Sure, some could jealously state that New England got lucky with that pick. Fine. Then how do they explain the Patriots hitting the jackpot again five years later when they selected Matt Cassel in the seventh round?
 

If possible, Cassel was even less regarded than Brady was coming into their respective drafts. He spent his entire time at the University of Southern California on the bench, watching first Carson Palmer, then Matt Leinart lead the powerful Trojans offense. After he was drafted by the Patriots, there was still no indication that he possessed NFL-level talent and, what’s more, there was no reason to suspect anyone would find out. After all, he was backing up Brady, an “iron man” who hadn’t missed a game since 2001 heading into last season. His life of living in the shadows of others seemed to be on a course to continue with no end. However, things were about to change in a big way.
 

Just as Drew Bledsoe’s injury had once allowed Brady to get into the game and showcase his talents, Cassel was thrust into the spotlight when Brady suffered his season-ending knee injury on September 7th against Kansas City. New England made it clear shortly thereafter that they would not be seeking to replace Brady outside of the organization. Matt Cassel was their man.
 

Cassel did not have immediate success, despite having two of the best receivers in the game at his disposal in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. He struggled badly in the Week Three loss against Miami and didn’t even throw for more than 200 yards in a game until the following contest against San Francisco. However, he served notice to the league that he had officially arrived with a gritty, 400 yard effort in a loss against the New York Jets on November 13th. Cassel threw for three touchdowns that evening (including the tying score in a pressure-filled final minute of regulation) and followed it up with another 400+ yards the next week in the revenge game against the Dolphins. He finished the year among the top ten quarterbacks in both NFL and Fantasy scoring.
 

He cashed in on his winning season when the Patriots placed the franchise tag on him, then traded him to Kansas City where he’ll finally assume his first undisputed starting gig.
 

So, what’s in store for him there?
 

Well, for starters, he’ll quickly find that he has gone from one of the best teams in football to one of the worst. The Chiefs had an atrocious season last year, ending up tied with the St. Louis Rams for the second worst record in the league behind Detroit. The running game is in shambles and the defense is in even worse shape. The program is in clear rebuilding mode.
 

However, even in the face of the current mess that the Chiefs are, Cassel will inherit two weapons that will not only aid him in his transition, but will make his separation from Moss and Welker less painful. Tony Gonzalez has been among the best tight ends in the game now over the last ten years and is not showing any signs that he will be slowing down this season. Dwayne Bowe has 156 receptions in his first two years and has proven himself to be one of the best young wide receivers in the game. Once Cassel establishes chemistry with both of them, his numbers should be steadily good throughout the season.
 

There’s more good news for Cassel’s fantasy fortunes. The Chiefs defense doesn’t look as though it will be improving any time soon. What this means is that, more than any other time during his collegiate or professional career, he will find himself playing from behind on a nearly constant basis. That means plenty of opportunities to rack up those precious garbage time stats.
 

To be fair, Cassel still has his share of doubters who think that his emergence may only have been a flash in the pan as opposed to being the real thing. I’m not ruling it out entirely, but you don’t want to be the guy at your draft who passes on him because of any lingering uncertainty. His situation in Kansas City may not be very conducive to wins and losses, but it should translate just fine for fantasy stats.
 

You’ll have to take him by the fourth round if you want him on your roster...and you do.

 

 

 

 

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