What a difference a year makes for Joseph Addai and Larry Johnson. Both were high round picks (Addai, on average, was taken sixth overall; Johnson eighteenth) that drastically underperformed, almost certainly killing any championship dreams for their respective owners...

Now, both of them head into 2009 with many more questions than either seems capable of answering. Does either of them stand a chance of rebounding next season?
 

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
 

A lot has changed in the last few weeks to make Johnson a bit more attractive to fantasy owners, even if he is unable to force the Chiefs to trade him.  The most obvious change being the addition of quarterback Matt Cassel. Beside the acquisition of a potential franchise signal caller, the team retained offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, a fan and supporter of Johnson’s.
 

That said, owners are going to be justifiably gun-shy about drafting the former All-Pro back. He hasn’t been the same since 2006, when former coach Herm Edwards ran him into the ground with 416 carries (an all-time record), and has played just 20 games since.  Even when he has played, he hasn’t even sniffed the success of his 2005 and 2006 seasons. At this point, he can’t be considered much more than a matchup start.

Addai’s status is much murkier than Johnson’s. The talent is obviously there to put up major dual-threat numbers, but can he carry the load of a featured NFL running back? History would seem to indicate that he can, as he started 15 games in 2007 while racking up more than 1,400 total yards. His statistical shortcomings last season stemmed from his own injuries, injuries along the Colts’ offensive line and quarterback Peyton Manning’s torrid, MVP-clinching second half.
 

Looking toward 2009, Addai will have some competition for carries in the Indianapolis backfield. Dominic Rhodes will almost certainly poach 100 carries, and Mike Hart, whose rookie season was shortened by a bad knee injury, could chip in and handful of carries a game, provided he is recovered. Regardless, Addai is a solid #2 fantasy back with the potential to be top 10 by season's end - given the talent he's surrounded with.

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
 

Johnson warrants no keeper consideration; he’s an aging (turns 30 this season) back with a lot of wear on his tires. If an owner wants to have him, he’s available - or should be.
 

Addai, however, is a potential keeper, depending on the respective owner’s strategy. If keeping two running backs is of high priority in your league, then an owner could do worse than pairing Addai with a young-buck #1.
 

BOTTOM LINE
 

Don’t expect Addai to fall quite like Johnson will...did...has. Addai is a second-round pick at worst, while Johnson should last to at least the fifth round, easily.
 

Redraft Edge: Addai

+++++
 

Keeper Edge: Addai
+++++


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